While Raven Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:RAVN) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the NASDAQGS. As a small cap stock, which tends to lack high analyst coverage, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Let’s take a look at Raven Industries’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.
What is Raven Industries worth?
Raven Industries is currently expensive based on my price multiple model, where I look at the company's price-to-earnings ratio in comparison to the industry average. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Raven Industries’s ratio of 62.93x is above its peer average of 32.74x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Industrials industry. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Raven Industries’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
Can we expect growth from Raven Industries?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to more than double over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Raven Industries. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in RAVN’s positive outlook, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe RAVN should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on RAVN for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for RAVN, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Raven Industries at this point in time. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Raven Industries, and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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