Why Russia is struggling to defend itself against drone attacks – expert view

The Russian military is facing significant challenges defending Russian airspace against unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and the growing use of drones has exposed Russia’s vulnerability, military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko told NV in an exclusive interview on Aug. 22.

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On Aug. 21, a source within Ukraine’s SBU security service revealed that recent drone attacks on strategic Russian airfields were orchestrated by groups of saboteurs coordinated by military intelligence. These actions serve as yet another testament to the consequences of Putin’s war against Ukraine, as the conflict is gradually “coming home” to Russia.

UAVs are now increasingly targeting vital Russian military and strategic installations. Their presence has even become commonplace in the skies over Moscow, frequently causing disruptions to local airport operations.

Read also: Why Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence needs ‘good Russians’ — interview

While the Russian authorities consistently maintain that they have successfully neutralized all UAV threats and that these attacks lack widespread orchestration, videos circulating on social media suggest otherwise. The UAVs are undeniably finding their mark with growing frequency.

What strategic objectives is Ukraine achieving through these drone attacks in Russia? To delve into this matter, NV conducted an in-depth conversation with Oleksander Kovalenko, a military-political observer affiliated with the Information Resistance group.

Continuing with the expert’s direct statements:

Each time something like this happens – when an unknown third party carries out an attack from the sky, and Ukraine says they aren’t responsible – it affects Russia’s ability to keep fighting against Ukraine, at least a bit. Let’s say we see a really important plane for Russia, like a Tu-22M3 or a Tu-95MS (strategic bomber). When one of these planes gets destroyed, it’s a problem for Russia because they can’t easily make new ones. That’s the first issue. The second thing is that these planes are used to launch attacks on Ukraine with special missiles like the Kh-22 and Kh-555. So, if there are fewer of these planes left, Russia can’t do as many of these missile attacks.

Read also: How Moscow drone attacks affect the war

If an incident occurs within the office spaces of a business center, such as the Moskva-City skyscrapers which house the business elite in Russia (already targeted by drones twice), we need to ascertain who occupies these offices. It’s likely that these are ministries and their employees. For example, ministries directly involved in waging and supporting the war against Ukraine. Therefore, for several weeks now, these ministries have been unable to function properly due to attacks on their office spaces.

If there are disruptions in flight schedules, flight cancellations at airports (recently, Russian authorities repeatedly halted operations at Moscow’s Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports due to drone threats), it’s not just affecting civilian or commercial flights. It also impacts transport aviation and cargo delays. Aircraft are forced to divert to other airports, consuming more fuel and causing financial losses for airports due to hour-long, two-hour, four-hour delays. All of this hurts the airport’s finances. If these losses outweigh the expenses of organizing such drone attacks, then it’s worth it. This is because these airports serve both logistical support for the war in Ukraine and funnel tax revenues into the budget, which in turn fund the war against Ukraine.

Now, if we consider an explosion at a unique manufacturing facility (in Moscow Oblast), an opto-mechanical plant, for instance, which produces thermal imagers or guidance systems, or some other optical equipment, again, all of this affects the army’s capability to be supplied with these products. So, every time something like this happens, it’s not only about how the Russian people feel, with the war getting closer, but it also has bigger impacts. It affects the military’s equipment, the economy, and what’s happening in the war itself.

Each explosion or incident might seem small, but they all add up as steps toward winning over Russia. However, it’s important to note that there’s no confirmation that Ukraine is involved in any of these incidents.

We’ve noticed that sometimes specific things in the air are being targeted. Let’s think about it this way: today is Aug. 22. Since the beginning of this month, how many similar incidents have happened, and how many of these aerial things have been affected? It’s possible that someone could be gathering information for a big attack. Could this group of aerial objects potentially launch a massive attack? It seems possible to me. But if something like that doesn’t happen, there might be a reason for it.

Read also: We are approaching a battlefield breakthrough

Maybe the reason is that they’re trying to confuse the Russians by spreading their focus in different directions. This way, the Russians won’t know where to defend strongly. Another thing is that these small groups might be gathering information while they’re attacking. They could be making a map of where the Russian defenses are strong and where they’re weak. Also, it’s possible that the drones are hard for Russian defense systems to spot.

If the Russians say they’re stopping all the drones, then I’d consider their success rate as 100%. From what I see, they’re doing a good job of “stopping” these drones, especially around important places like Moskva-City. They’re skilled at using planes on the ground to intercept them. They’re also effectively using things like factories and oil depots to “intercept” the drones. It’s really impressive that they could stop a drone so accurately, hitting two with the same building and almost with the same floor of a Moscow-City tower, with just a one-day gap!

Jokes aside, these results show how much the war in Ukraine is affecting Russia’s air defense systems. In the last year-and-a-half, about a third of Russia’s modern defense systems for stopping small things like drones have been taken out. Another third of these systems are now in Ukraine, in the occupied territories.

Read also: Why does Putin need Bakhmut, and what did the drone attack on the Kremlin change

So, in Russia right now, there’s only around a third of the modern defense systems left compared to what they had on Feb. 23, 2022. This is a big problem, because it’s not nearly enough to protect the whole of Russia’s airspace. It can’t even cover the airspace over a few Russian oblasts, let alone the entire country.

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