Why UNC Asheville can – and can't – pull a first-round March Madness upset vs UCLA

Naturally, No. 15-seed UNC Asheville will be underdogs against No. 2-seed UCLA in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

The Bulldogs (27-7) head to Sacramento to play the Bruins (29-5) on Thursday (10:05 p.m. ET, TruTV).

UCLA, which has won a record 11 NCAA titles, won the Pac-12 regular season by four games and was ranked as high as No. 2 in the AP Top 25. The Bruins reached the Final Four two seasons ago and the Sweet 16 last season with multiple contributors to those runs still on the roster, though they will be without starting guard Jaylen Clark, who suffered a torn Achilles on March 4.

Looking at the matchup, here are the reasons to believe – or not to believe – the Bulldogs can upset UCLA and perhaps go on a Cinderella run.

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THE REASONS TO BELIEVE

Drew Pember presents a unique challenge

Even in an era of versatile, tall floor-spacers, Big South Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year Drew Pember is a unique talent.

The 6-foot-10 forward is averaging 21.2 points, 9.4 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game, shooting 37.3% from 3-point range and 46.3% from the field. Only four players in the nation his height or taller have made as many 3-pointers (56) as Pember this season.

Asheville uses the Tennessee transfer as a pick-and-pop threat, uses him off dribble-handoffs and allows him to face-up in the post and on the perimeter, where his shooting ability opens slashing opportunities, particularly against less mobile defenders.

His height and first-step quickness puts defenses in uncomfortable positions all game – Pember draws more fouls than anyone in the nation, per KenPom, leading an Asheville team that ranks 12th in the nation in getting to the foul line. Any Bulldogs upset bid starts with Pember having a good night.

3-point shooting

The Bulldogs are shooting 39.0% from outside as a team, ranking No. 7 in the nation in 3-point accuracy.

Tajion Jones (98 3-pointers, shooting 45.6%) is the biggest threat from outside; the sixth-year shooting guard's 359 career 3-pointers is a school record.

Junior Fletcher Abee gives Asheville a third shooter for UCLA to keep track of. A Morganton native who transferred to Asheville from The Citadel, Abee averages 1.6 3-pointers per game on a 42.1% clip.

How they fare against a UCLA team that allows a fairly high number of attempts from deep but has kept opponents to a 31.4% shooting percentage on them will go a long way toward determining the outcome.

A disciplined, experienced defense

With one of the oldest rosters in the nation (ranked 12th in Division I experience, per KenPom) Asheville has an overall maturity that is most apparent on defense.

Combined with Pember's switchability and disruption, the Bulldogs connectedness and discipline creates a reliable unit that is good at everything and doesn't sell out for any one goal. Asheville doesn't foul and forces opponents deep into isolation situations deep in the shot clock; well under half of the field goals it allows are assisted.

That isn't likely to bother UCLA as much as it would some other teams — led by Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell, the Bruins are extremely comfortable and proficient making unassisted, pull-up 2-pointers — but if the favorites miss some shots early, the Bulldogs aren't likely to give up too many easy buckets to ease the pressure.

THE CAUSES FOR CONCERN

Turnovers

Ball security is easily Asheville's biggest weakness on offense, and it will be tested by a Bruins defense extremely effective at forcing giveaways.

The Bulldogs turn it over on 20% of their possessions, and UCLA ranks 11th in forced turnovers (23.6% of possession). Though much of that was powered by steals by Clark, the Bruins also block a lot of shots and force non-steal turnovers at a high rate.

The good news is Asheville somewhat limits live-ball giveaways, which lead to instant transition opportunities. Still, beating more talented teams becomes much more difficult if you can't take care of the ball.

Free throws

Asheville's shot profile carries some red flags. Their accuracy on 3-point shots is elite, but they attempt relatively few of them. And the opposite is true of free throws; they take as many foul shots as anyone in the country but are below average from the line.

The Bulldogs make just 69.4% of their 22.3 free throws per game. If you exclude Pember, they're at 59.5%.

Asheville could be in trouble if it struggles to knock down the freebies in the high-pressure, unfamiliar tournament environment, or if the officials are reticent to call fouls in the first place.

Struggles against size

While Pember's offensive mobility creates problems for opponents, his 215-pound frame puts him at a disadvantage trying to defend stronger players on the block.

Murray State transfer Nick McMullen gives the Bulldogs a beefier frontcourt defender, but some of their worst performances have come against teams that want to pound the rock inside — a playing style NCAA Tournament teams are generally more comfortable using than your average Big South squad.

There were worse matchups for Asheville in this department, as UCLA doesn't have the most size inside (especially if 6-10 Adem Bona's recent shoulder injury keeps him out), but the Bruins do crash the glass effectively and have quality frontcourt options off the bench.

PREDICTION

Prediction: UCLA 60, Asheville 53. Pember's presence means Asheville isn't your average No. 15-seed, and the Bruins are far from full strength, but Cinderellas are Cinderellas for a reason: UCLA is the favorite on Thursday.

This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: March Madness predictions: Why UNC Asheville can upset UCLA