Why Wichita State basketball has a more challenging non-conference schedule than you think

A quick glance at the home schedule for games to be played at Koch Arena and it’s not hard to imagine why some Wichita State men’s basketball fans were less than enthused at the team’s non-conference schedule released this past Friday.

Showdowns against the likes of Norfolk State, Lipscomb, Western Kentucky, Richmond and Southern Illinois don’t exactly scream sellout in the Roundhouse. And many are still wondering why the Shockers are playing Friends University, the local NAIA squad that they haven’t played since 1943, in the third game of the season.

What the mid-major competition lacks in big-name appeal, they could make up for in competitiveness on the court. And with a road date at Missouri, square-offs against K-State and KU in Kansas City and three potentially challenging games in Myrtle Beach, Wichita State could actually have its best non-conference schedule since joining the American Athletic Conference.

“Based on where Wichita State is positioned in the American, this is about as good as you can possibly schedule,” college basketball analyst Rocco Miller told The Eagle. “It’s looking like they have three Q1 games almost guaranteed, which is pretty amazing for an American school.”

Miller is uniquely qualified to break down WSU’s schedule, as he works as a bracketologist during the college basketball season, then links teams with common open dates to help coaches fill out their non-conference slate during the offseason, WSU included.

The Shockers are an unusual case because newly hired head coach Paul Mills hardly had a say in the bulk of his first-year schedule. WSU had already signed contracts with Missouri, Kansas State, Richmond, Western Kentucky and ESPN for three games in Myrtle Beach when Mills took the job, plus games against South Dakota State and Kansas were close to being finalized. That left Mills and his staff the power to schedule just four games to round out the schedule.

December will see WSU play three games — at Mizzou and back-to-back KC trips against in-state rivals — that are projected to be top-tier opportunities for WSU. The games will count as Quad 1 chances for WSU if Missouri finishes top-75 in the NET rankings and if KU and K-State both finish top-50.

Outside of Memphis, no other AAC team can come close to offering a non-conference schedule quite as challenging as that.

“I would be very surprised if any of those three games don’t land in Q1,” Miller said. “And then I think the KU and K-State games are going to land in Quad 1A (top-25 NET opponents), which are going to be elite opportunities. If WSU can get one of those wins, that’s going to carry a lot more weight than just a general Quad 1 win.”

WSU hasn’t played three non-conference Quad 1 games since the 2017-18 season when it played Notre Dame in Maui and faced Baylor and Oklahoma State on the road. At minimum, the 2023-24 schedule should match that with the potential to even surpass it.

Depending on WSU’s draw and play in Myrtle Beach, the Shockers could tack on another Quad 1 game if it faces College of Charleston or Liberty. Both Charleston (52) and Liberty (46) finished right on the edge of being a neutral-site Quad 1 opponent (top-50 NET ranking) last season and return plenty of talent to once again push for NCAA bids this season.

“If I was Wichita, I would be rooting for a game I could win in the first round and then somehow play College of Charleston and Liberty on the last two days of the event,” Miller said. “That would be the ideal draw in terms of a strength-of-schedule standpoint. Coming out of those first six games, they’re going to learn about their team pretty early on.”

No one is going to project the Shockers as an NCAA Tournament team in the first season of a new coach and so much roster turnover, but banking a quality win or two in the first two months of the season could come in handy in March if WSU is jockeying for position in another postseason tournament.

And while the best games on the schedule come outside of Wichita, the Shockers should have plenty of challenges at home — even if the opponents lack the same big-name appeal as a power-conference opponent.

The Intrust Bank Arena game features South Dakota State and Lawrence native Zeke Mayo, a super scorer who is a big reason why the Jackrabbits are the early Summit League favorites.

Southern Illinois won 23 games last season and figures to be a solid Missouri Valley team, while new Western Kentucky coach Steve Lutz is highly-regarded and could make the Hilltoppers a threat right away in the new-look Conference USA. Richmond has a well-respected coach in Chris Mooney, while even the low-major teams, Lipscomb (20 wins) and Norfolk State (22 wins) are coming off successful seasons.

WSU will still have a handful of Quadrant 4 games at home, but the difference this year is there will be no bottom-dwellers like Central Arkansas (329), Mississippi Valley State (358) or Texas Southern (307), who were all sub-300 teams last year, to drag down WSU’s strength of schedule.

“They’re going to have a large sample size for the committee to look at,” Miller said. “If everything falls into place and they’re in the at-large discussions later in the season, the American has two elite teams in Memphis and Florida Atlantic that should give them four more chances at what I think will be tournament-caliber teams. And then you never know if someone from that next pack of UAB, North Texas, SMU could have a really good year. I think everyone in the league is going to benefit from Wichita having a really good schedule like this if they can play well against it.”

And about that Friends game.

Miller has a theory on why it’s being played on Nov. 12, three days after the Western Kentucky game and four days before WSU’s first game in Myrtle Beach.

“It’s going to be key for them to get off to a good start, not only to get the players bought in faster, but also the fans,” Miller said. “I don’t think there’s any accident why that non-Division I game is in that spot. It’s what we call a nothing-burger because none of the data will impact the NET, none of the data is taken into consideration for selection. It’s really just an opportunity for them to get a look at some of their bench guys, figure out their rotations, how they’re going to divide up their minutes and also get a little confidence going in case anything shaky happens those first two games.”