Why a win over Troy could change the perception of Southern Miss football
Southern Miss football will be a 6.5-point underdog when it travels to Troy on Saturday (6 p.m., ESPN+) for its first conference game as a Sun Belt member — and that's not anything new.
Including the upcoming clash with the Trojans (3-2, 1-1 SBC), the Golden Eagles (2-2, 0-0) have yet to be favored by the oddsmakers in any of their four games against FBS opposition. Will Hall's team was a 3.5-point home underdog against Liberty, a 27.5-point underdog at Miami and a 12.5-point underdog ahead of a road upset of Tulane.
The Golden Eagles are 4-0 against the spread this season. But, both in Hattiesburg and across Sun Belt country, experts still very much seem to be in wait-and-see mode on the conference newcomers.
"Nobody really talks about us ever in the Sun Belt West," Hall said Tuesday. "Nobody really gives us any credit. We're always big underdogs. That's probably where we should be. We've earned that through our play over the last three years. To be thought of differently in our reputation, our actions have to do different things."
Like, for instance, going on the road and beating a Troy team with two experienced quarterbacks, fresh off a road win over a Western Kentucky outfit that played for a Conference USA title last season.
As of Sunday, the Trojans were available at plus-400 odds to win the Sun Belt, according to Vegas Insider. That's an implied probability of 20%. Southern Miss' implied probability is 3.2%.
"To go over there and play well in that environment and possibly get a win would obviously change a lot of people's opinions on us," Hall said. "We're not going to be a finished product either way. We've got to keep working. It's early in the season and it's our first conference game."
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There are more variables at play for Southern Miss entering Week 6 than usual. For one, the Golden Eagles still haven't played a conference game, making it more difficult to compare them to their peers. They also harbor a relative unknown at quarterback in true freshman Zach Wilcke, who is 2-1 as a starter and has managed games well but hasn't produced eye-popping numbers as he plants his roots at the college level.
How quickly Wilcke grows up might determine just how much Southern Miss fans allow themselves to dream. He's already shown that he won't lose games for the Golden Eagles, who are riding their first streak of back-to-back turnover-free contests since 2017. With an explosive defense and talented group of weapons at the skill positions, Southern Miss will win some more football games this season if things continue that way.
But if Wilcke, whose arm talent is significant, can level up and become a force that wins games for the Golden Eagles, the possibilities expand.
Which brings us back to the question: Just how good is this Southern Miss team?
In Troy this weekend, we'll begin the process of finding out.
"If we lose, it's not the end of the world with where we're building the program," Hall said. "If we win, it's obviously a huge step forward."
David Eckert covers Southern Miss for The Hattiesburg American. Contact him at deckert@gannett.com or on Twitter @davideckert98.
This article originally appeared on Hattiesburg American: Why beating Troy could change the perception of Southern Miss football
