Wild weekend of college football produces numerous scenarios for TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
A crazy three days of college football in the SEC and ACC -- beginning with Mississippi State's victory over Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl and ending with Texas A&M upsetting SEC West champion LSU -- didn't do much to sharpen the focus for the possible TaxSlayer Gator Bowl matchup on Dec. 30.
The game at TIAA Bank Field (3:30 p.m., ESPN) will be an SEC team vs. an ACC team.
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The Gator Bowl would appear to be in line for the ACC to assign the loser of the championship game between Clemson (10-2) and North Carolina (9-3), Florida State (9-3), N.C. State (8-4) or Notre Dame (8-4) -- which falls into the ACC bowl rotation if it does not make the College Football Playoff or a New Year's Day Six game.
Games on the Gator Bowl's ACC tier are the Cheez-It Bowl in Orlando and the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. The Clemson-North Carolina winner goes to the Orange Bowl.
One key question on Tuesday when the new CFP rankings are announced is how high the Seminoles will be bumped for their victory over Florida. The 'Noles, winners of five in a row, were 16th in last week's ranking and almost certainly will pass Notre Dame (which lost to USC) and be the next highest-ranked team in the ACC after Clemson.
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl ticket information
Would that open up the Cotton Bowl in Dallas to FSU?
Stranger things have happened in the last several weeks.
On the SEC side, LSU (9-3) fell back into the Gator Bowl mix if the Tigers lose the SEC Championship game to unbeaten and top-ranked Georgia (12-0), thanks to their loss to Texas A&M.
If the SEC does not get two teams in the CFP (assuming Georgia beats LSU in the SEC title game on Saturday), the Sugar Bowl will get the highest-ranked SEC team, either Alabama (10-2) or Tennessee (10-2), with a New Year's Six bowl such as the Cotton in line for the next SEC team in the rankings, and the Citrus Bowl having the first pick of the remaining teams.
That could now include South Carolina (8-4), which has won back-to-back games against top-10 teams in Tennessee and Clemson.
"South Carolina is the hot team in the SEC right now," said Gator Bowl president Greg McGarity. "Any bowl would love to have them but I think they're the favorite for the Citrus Bowl now."
That could leave a pool of teams that include LSU, Florida (6-6), Kentucky (7-5), Mississippi State (8-4) and Ole Miss (8-4) for the next tier of SEC bowls, the Gator, Reliaquest Bowl in Tampa, the Music City Bowl in Nashville, the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, the Taxact Texas Bowl in Houston and the Las Vegas Bowl.
"There are a lot of dynamics still working," McGarity said. "This weekend proved that in college football, until the hay is in the bar, you'd better not start putting things in ink. Put it on a whiteboard that erases pretty quickly. The games this week were college football at its best."
McGarity said geography is a key factor in the conferences assigning bowls, which puts Florida, South Carolina and Kentucky from the SEC and Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina from the ACC as prime Gator Bowl possibilities.
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl scenarios
Here are the two most coveted matchups in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl and what would have to happen. The matchups also assume the two favorites win in the SEC and ACC conference championship games, Georgia ove LSU and Clemson over North Carolina:
South Carolina vs. Florida State
Why the Gator Bowl would want it: They would be the two teams on the biggest late-season runs the game could get. FSU has won its last five and South Carolina has beaten top-10 Tennessee and Clemson back-to-back. FSU hasn't played in Jacksonville since 2010 and the Gamecocks haven't been here since 1987. The two fan bases, needless to say, are energized.
How it could happen: Georgia goes to the CFP, Alabama or Tennessee to the Sugar Bowl, the other to the Cotton or Orange Bowl and LSU to the Citrus Bowl.
In the ACC scenario, Clemson goes to the Orange Bowl, FSU isn't ranked high enough to reach the Cotton Bowl and the conference, wanting to give a boost to Gator Bowl attendance, divies up Notre Dame and North Carolina to the Cheez-it Bowl and Holiday Bowl and sends the 'Noles east on I-10.
Florida vs. Notre Dame
Why the Gator Bowl would want it: Ticket sales could be strong for Gator fans statewide and local sales should be very good with the Irish in Jacksonville for the first time since playing Navy in 2016. TV ratings are also usually stout for Notre Dame, which will please the title sponsor.
How it could happen: Georgia goes to the CFP, Alabama or Tennessee to the Sugar Bowl, the other to the Cotton or Orange Bowl and South Carolina to the Citrus Bowl. LSU stays close to home at the Houston Bowl. Despite Florida's 6-6 record, its fan base might get over losing the last two games and the likelihood of not having quarterback Anthony Richardson for the bowl game to come to the Gator Bowl for the first time since 2012.
On the ACC side, Notre Dame is in the conference's rotation when it's out of the mix for a New Year's Six game. Clemson goes to the Orange Bowl, FSU is ranked high enough to get to the Cotton Bowl and the ACC, which likes to protect its championship game loser, sends North Carolina to the Cheez-It Bowl and Notre Dame to Jacksonville.
Contact Garry Smits at gsmits@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @GSmitter
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: TaxSlayer Gator Bowl hoping for 'Noles, Irish, Gators or Gamecocks
