Wilkes profs: Ukraine invasion risks high casualties, could backfire for Putin

Feb. 25—WILKES-BARRE — Russia's invasion of Ukraine has a high risk of major casualties, especially if it becomes a long-term insurgency against a Russian puppet regime. Sanctions could hurt the west as much as Russia. Putin's history suggests he will not attack any other country for some time after this. And the invasion could backfire badly on Putin by not only strengthening resolve — and defense spending — of NATO nations, but by convincing more countries to joint the alliance.

Wilkes University Associate Professor of History Jon Kuiken and Associate Professor of Political Science Andrew Miller provided extensive background and fielded numerous questions from students during a hastily-arranged two-hour drop-in session for students. A more formal session is scheduled for Tuesday, but they had decided so much was happening so fast one should be held sooner.

Students peppered them with questions ranging from the usefulness — or lack of it — of sanctions and the United Nations to the impact of COVID-19 and social media on the fighting. Students periodically looked at their smart phones and announced new developments in the rapidly evolving crisis.

Some of the opinions and facts shared by the professors during the session:

—Kuiken pointed out Putin's pattern: Invading Georgia in 2008, waiting, invading Crimea in 2014, waiting, and launching the full scale invasion of the rest of Ukraine now. If he follows that pattern, he won't invade any other countries anytime soon — other than the possible exception of small Moldova directly connected to Ukraine. "More likely there will be a process to consolidate, and I don't think that's going to be easy."

He suggested that, with Belarus already essentially a Russian puppet, Putin likely intends to set up a puppet regime in Ukraine, declare peace with Russia, and possibly announce an alliance of the three countries.

—High casualties are likely for multiple reasons: Military and civilians are interacting in real time, with videos of Russian tanks rolling through city streets as Ukrainians drive and bike past, going about their daily lives, Kuiken said. With 44 million people and many densely populated centers, Ukraine is a "target-rich environment," Miller said, greatly increasing the risk the Russians will hit civilian targets unintentionally. Russia has only a small number of precision munitions, Kuiken added, and once they are gone the Russians will resort to conventional bombs. A hospital and a civilian ship from Turkey were already hit in the first 24 hours.

—The risk of this becoming a global war is real. "War never goes the way you expect it," Kuiken said. "It's not out of the realm of possibility that a Russian plane shoots down a Polish Jet. What happens then?" The U.S. and NATO allies have ships in the Black sea. Poland has opened its border to refugees. Greece sent a ship to evacuate Greek expatriates. Four NATO countries — Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — have already invoked Article 4 of the alliance, meaning all member nations are discussing response to a risk of territorial integrity. "They are going to be building up troops," Kuiken said, adding "that said, it would take a lot to start World War III."

For a true World War the conflict would have to become "hegemonic," Miller said, explaining things would happen that would draw in not only the U.S. and Europe, but also China. "Don't go home thinking World War III is imminent," Kuiken said, "But a lot can go wrong."

—The United Nations can do little because Russia is a member of the Security Council, the body that could impose sanctions. "The Russian Ambassador has already said there is no war, it's a security operation," Kuiken said. And economic sanctions are a double-edged sword. With Russia producing much of Europe's energy, providing many of the minerals the world uses in electronics, and growing (along with Ukraine) 21% of the world's grain, sanctions can cause pain all around.And Russia has a much smaller economy the the United States or even some European countries, so sanctions could potentially have a much smaller impact.

"Putin probably thought Russia could hold out a year or two" even if the country's economy tanks, Kuiken said. "When it comes to sanctions, it may be a matter of whether Americans can stomach them."

—But many factors could work against Putin, Kuiken said. The war may be unpopular among soldiers — there are stories that some were surprised the Ukrainians didn't want them there, and that one Russian said "we don't want to be here, either." Russia invades during a pandemic, with soldiers living in close quarters. "There are stories that COVID in Russian troops is sky high." Economic sanctions will hurt average Russian residents more, who may sour on the war. "Putin's power still depends a lot on his popularity," Kuiken said.

There is also a possibility things were already worse in Russia than the rest of the world knows, and that if the war goes badly those problems could get much worse quickly.

—One of Putin's stated concerns has been that Ukraine not become a NATO member, and that certainly won't happen if the invasion succeeds. But Kuiken noted the invasion shows the security protocols that the west has relied on for decades clearly are not working anymore, and that such an unprovoked land grab can spur NATO nations to re-invigorate and dramatically strengthen the alliance. It could also prompt more nations to join. " I think this is something we will be talking about for the rest of our lives."

—No war has been fought with the type of social media access the world has now.Kuiken said that could make it — and probably already has made it — much harder for Putin to hide what is happening. But it also means people can be fed false information and false videos. Putin wants the west to be divided on the issue of Ukraine, so odds are that efforts are underway by Russia to feed that division.

"I think Russian bots are already at work," Kuiken said. "Be extremely careful with what you trust on social media."

Reach Mark Guydish at 570-991-6112 or on Twitter @TLMarkGuydish