Will Trump's Jan. 6 indictment be the one that finally topples him?

“The 360” shows you diverse perspectives on the day’s top stories and debates.

What’s happening

Former President Donald Trump was indicted Tuesday on four felony charges stemming from his scheme to cling to power after the 2020 election — a scheme that ultimately fueled the deadly Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Thirty months later, the Justice Department has arrested more than 1,069 rioters; nearly 600 have pleaded guilty to a variety of federal charges and another 100 or so have been found guilty at contested trials.

At the same time, special counsel Jack Smith and his prosecutors have been circling the man who triggered the assault on Congress by refusing to accept his election loss. Smith’s indictment alleges that Trump engaged in three criminal conspiracies: to obstruct the government in conducting the election; to obstruct Congress in counting and certifying the results; and to violate the rights of all Americans to have their votes counted.

Yet Trump’s Jan. 6 indictment is also one Trump indictment among several. Earlier this year the former president was indicted in Manhattan for allegedly covering up a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels. Smith then indicted Trump for mishandling classified documents and obstructing the government’s repeated efforts to recover them. And the district attorney in Fulton County, Ga., is said to be readying racketeering charges against Trump in connection to his efforts to flip her state’s 2020 results.

The question now is whether Tuesday’s indictment is different. Could this be the thing that finally sinks Trump? Or will it be just another drop in the proverbial bucket?

Why there’s debate

Despite being indicted three times over the past three months, Trump now leads his closest rival for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination by an average of 38 percentage points.

Yet the prohibitive GOP favorite also tends to trail President Biden in general election polls — and in overall popularity. And he lost in 2020 by 7 million votes.

For Trump, those numbers point to the political peril of a Jan. 6 trial. To win the 2024 general election, he needs to gain votes, not just retain them. And while his MAGA base may not care about Jan. 6, most other Americans do.

According to the latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll, 70% of U.S. adults now consider “conspiring to overturn the results of a presidential election” to be a “serious crime” — and just 24% think Trump should be allowed to serve as president again if convicted.

Yet the case against the former president is completely unprecedented, so its political ramifications are far from clear. Trump will argue that his false claims of fraud are protected under the First Amendment — and that he didn’t act “corruptly” because he genuinely believed them. As usual, many Americans will believe him.

What’s next

Trump’s hush money trial is set to begin in March, just days after the Super Tuesday primaries; his documents trial is expected to follow in May. So far, no trial has been scheduled in the Jan. 6 case, but experts say it could come sooner rather than later. Either way, it’s likely that Trump will spend much of election season toggling between courtroom and campaign, as Smith pushes for a verdict in the Jan. 6 case before voters deliver theirs. Otherwise, a victorious Trump would likely force his new attorney general to dismiss the charges.

Perspectives

The Jan. 6 case is different because it’s more ‘important’...

“Jack Smith has indicted Donald Trump for trying to overthrow our system of government. There are no other cases. This is the case.” — Tom Nichols, Atlantic

… and because it underscores the ‘danger’ Trump still poses

“The third indictment’s significance is partially due to the deficiencies of its two predecessors. Bragg’s — by far the weakest — relies on a novel and untested interpretation of the law. … The [documents] indictment is far stronger than the first. [But] while this indictment tells a story of Donald Trump, it doesn’t tell the full one. You get a passing reminder of just how pathetic and stupid Donald Trump can be. What’s missing is the danger he poses. [That] is the most potent ingredient of this third indictment.” — Alex Shephard, New Republic

The new charges will force Republicans to make a ‘fundamental choice’

“Do they nominate a thrice-indicted criminal defendant who sought to overthrow our democracy? … If Republicans proceed with Trump, they become the party of insurrection and deceit. The GOP will be stained for a very long time.” — Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post

But the GOP base has never broken with Trump before, and they’re unlikely to start now

“The indictment is a powerful summation of much that we have learned before, but who, in fact, will read it? What minds will it alter? What difference will it make? … It is clear that a large portion of the electorate has decided that multiple criminal indictments current and forthcoming … will not dissuade them from voting for Trump.” — David Remnick, New Yorker

In fact, Smith’s indictment will help Trump win the Republican nomination

“This indictment, perhaps even more than the others, will by dint of looking back at 2020 roil the 2024 campaign. Democrats want Mr. Trump to be the Republican nominee, and Mr. Smith (whether he intends it or not) is making that outcome more likely. We will have an election campaign that rotates between courtrooms and rallies. The carnival will make it difficult for other Republicans to be heard.” — Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal

Even so, an actual trial could sway more ‘open-minded’ Americans

“I am not naïve. I know that not even a guilty verdict will change the perceptions of many of Trump’s most loyal supporters. … But the judicial system can expose his claims to exacting scrutiny, and that scrutiny has the potential to change those minds that are open to the truth.” — David French, New York Times

Putting Jan. 6 front and center during the election is the ‘best chance’ to defend ‘democracy’

“Constant publicity from the trial would give the American people in the middle of the election season a close look at the actions Trump took for his own personal benefit while putting lives and the country at risk. … It’s not hyperbole to say that the conduct of this prosecution will greatly influence whether the U.S. remains a thriving democracy after 2024.” — Richard Hasen, Slate

But not so fast — there’s no guarantee a Jan. 6 trial can be completed before Election Day

“The median time for a criminal felony case to be finished in the U.S. District Court in Washington is nearly 18 months. … Eighteen months from now will be after Inauguration Day for the next presidential term. … Timing is most crucial for the federal cases because Trump, if elected president in 2024, can direct his chosen attorney general to dismiss both cases with prejudice. In that event, Trump could never be held accountable on either set of charges.” — Michael Conway, former counsel for the House Judiciary Committee, MSNBC

And there’s no guarantee a jury will convict Trump

“Americans, presidents included, have a right to attempt to influence Congress, even based on dubious or imagined evidence. To establish obstruction, Smith must prove that Trump’s efforts at persuasion were corrupt — again, in the sense that he knew his badgering and lobbying had no factual or legal merit.” — Editors, National Review