Who will win at the 2023 Tony Awards? Our critics go toe to toe

It began with a play based on a mega-popular novel and a much-loved Stephen Sondheim musical, and ended with "The Phantom of the Opera" closing after 35 years, a show based on a Martin Scorsese flop, and a play by Lorraine Hansberry.

The 2022-23 Broadway season was full of surprises, laughter, tears — and productions that came and went faster than you can say the Great Bright Way.

"The Kite Runner," based on the best-selling book by Khaled Hosseini, opened the season on July 6, 2022, followed a month later by the second revival of Sondheim's "Into the Woods." As always, a ton of shows tried to beat the late April deadline to be considered for Tony Awards. The musical "New York, New York," based on what has been called the "damn near unwatchable" film, and Hansberry's "The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window" (back on Broadway after more than 50 years) just made the cut.

So who will win? We have some ideas — and we won't always agree. Here's hoping, however, that we can get through this without yelling at each other.

The 2023 Tony Awards are set for Sunday, June 11. Hosted by Ariana DeBose, the awards ceremony will air live from United Palace in Washington Heights, Manhattan, from 8 to 11 p.m. on CBS, and live and on demand on Paramount+.

"The Tony Awards: Act One," a pre-show of live content leading into the 76th annual awards, will air from 6:30 to 8 p.m. on Pluto TV, a free streaming television service. Viewers can access it on a smart TV, streaming device, mobile app or online by going to Pluto TV and clicking on the “Pluto TV Celebrity” channel. No payment, registration or sign-in is required.

As they say, "Let's go, on with the show!"

Best Play

• "Ain't No Mo'," Author: Jordan E. Cooper

• "Between Riverside and Crazy," Author: Stephen Adly Guirgis

• "Cost of Living," Author: Martyna Majok

• "Fat Ham," Author: James Ijames

• "Leopoldstadt," Author: Tom Stoppard

ILANA KELLER: One of the marks of a great play is to feel relevant — especially when audiences walk out of the theater going "wait, WHEN was this written?"

Whether striking a nerve with a ripped-from-the-headlines feel or a global theme that manages to strike right into the heart of current sentiment, every one of these plays packed that urgent punch. On themes ranging from antisemitism and racism to the rights and dignities of marginalized communities, these were all pieces audiences walked out of with a heaviness, leaving with the weight of questions, challenges, determination, anger or a thirst to learn more.

That said, "Leopoldstadt" and its incredible amount of emotional depth is truly special. Rather than tell a Holocaust story, it tells the Holocaust story, with entry points for so many families' stories that ring true to history. It's about family, it's about hatred, it's about survival — and its marvelous cast, from the youngest up, bring it to life in ways that seem to transcend the stage.

BILL CANACCI: I agree with just about everything you said. And "Leopoldstadt" is likely to win. But featuring a first-rate cast, "Cost of Living" was a remarkable, funny, dramatic and memorable production. Martyna Majok’s play is about the complexity of caring and being cared for, and the ways we all need each other. For me, that rose above the others.

Best Musical

• "& Juliet"

• "Some Like It Hot," Matthew López and Amber Ruffin

• "Kimberly Akimbo"

• "New York, New York"

• "Shucked"

• "Some Like It Hot"

BC: Let me start by saying there are good things about all of these shows. But it comes down to the very Jersey "Kimberly Akimbo" and "Some Like It Hot." The former is an entertaining little show that takes place in Bergen County in 1999. Full of comedy and great performances, it's about a bright and funny teen who because of a rare disease looks like a 72-year-old woman. Based on the classic film, "Some Like It Hot" is a big musical with a big cast and big numbers.

As much as I loved "Kimberly," "Some Like It Hot" was a joy from start to finish. It gets my vote.

IK: I first saw pieces of "Kimberly Akimbo" onstage at BroadwayCon, and although intrigued, wasn't feeling anything particularly strong about it, good or bad. Still, loving to see shows as they go through their final processes in previews, I won lotto seats and settled in.

And they sold me from the very start. Whether some of that can be traced to nostalgia for growing up in New Jersey in the '90s is up for debate, but what isn't is the soul of this show. Its balance of the snarky and the serious, the funny and the sad, the beauty and the beast of living, is spot on. I don't know whether it's quite right to call something tragic relief, but the scope of humor peppered with the moments of heartbreak is unique, and it works. to fantastic effect. The music is often its own character, and who isn't for adding more tunes to the Broadway canon that would shock your grandma?

But there's also one show that has been taking the Broadway world by surprise all season: Watch out, the Tonys may just get "Shucked."

BC: So we're 0 for 2. Not a good start, Ilana.

Best Revival of a Play

• August Wilson's "The Piano Lesson"

• "A Doll's House," New Version by: Amy Herzog

• "The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window"

• Suzan-Lori Parks' "Topdog/Underdog"

IK: August Wilson has been having a moment these past few years, and "The Piano Lesson" was no exception. This revival was brilliant, bringing Wilson's rich characters back to life with a cast more than worthy of their challenges.

BC: This one is easy. The revival of "The Piano Lesson" is a great production with a wonderful cast, including Samuel L. Jackson, Danielle Brooks and John David Washington.

IK: Uh-oh, we agree. Is it too late to change my vote?

Best Revival of a Musical

• "Into the Woods"

• Lerner & Loewe's "Camelot"

• "Parade"

• "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"

BC: Ilana, am I allowed to pass?

IK: Don't be mean. Remember, children will listen.

BC: I don't want to vote for any of these, but if I have to pick one I'll give it to "Into the Woods."

IK: At least you made the right choice. From the time "Into the Woods" was announced for a two-week run last year as part of City Center's Encores series, there was buzz. A Who's Who of Broadway cast will do that. But this production had something more. And Sondheim.

As the theater world continued to mourn the loss of the artform's giant, maybe it was only right that The Giant and his wife stepped in (literally), to help the healing. From top of bottom, members of this production felt his presence, or at least his inspiration. If you want, I can tell you my Sondheim presence story from the first Broadway preview.

BC: Nobody wants to hear that, Ilana. But I know you want to tell readers more about "Into the Woods."

IK: Starting out at City Center, the sets were sparse. The costumes adequate. The cow, though, was unspeakably remarkable. But despite the limitations (and to the credit of the cow, and the actors, musicians, crew and creatives) this production just worked. And we were lucky to have it.

Best Book of a Musical

• "& Juliet," David West Read

• "Kimberly Akimbo," David Lindsay-Abaire

• "New York, New York," David Thompson and Sharon Washington

• "Shucked," Robert Horn

IK: Again, I just love the smartness of "Kimberly Akimbo," the way the stark and the snark blend so seamlessly. And that is owed in no small part to a book that in many ways treats the extraordinary as ordinary, allowing these characters to breathe, without becoming caricatures or feeling too over-the-top, even as the audience knows they are.

BC: So there is a temptation to go with "Kimberly Akimbo," but I'm going with "Some Like It Hot." They made a movie about men who disguise themselves as women into something that can work in a world that needs more positive trans stories. It's a bit preachy at times, but all theater is, right?

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

• "Almost Famous," Music: Tom Kitt, Lyrics: Cameron Crowe and Tom Kitt

• "Kimberly Akimbo," Music: Jeanine Tesori, Lyrics: David Lindsay-Abaire

• "KPOP," Music and Lyrics: Helen Park and Max Vernon

• "Shucked," Music and Lyrics: Brandy Clark and Shane McAnally

• "Some Like It Hot," Music: Marc Shaiman, Lyrics: Scott Wittman and Marc Shaiman

BC: This one, too, is easy: Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman. I've listened to "Some Like It Hot" again and again and can't stop loving it.

IK: We agree again, someone alert the media. Oh wait, we are the media. "Some Like It Hot" is everything you want in a "Broadway" Broadway score. Toe tappers, whistleable tunes — and as an added bonus, the Broadway debut of a song from their television series "Smash" for long-suffering fans.

BC: You had to bring up "Smash." At least you're not mentioning that a musical based on it is in development.

IK: I'm guessing Bill won't let it be his star.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

• Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Suzan-Lori Parks' "Topdog/Underdog"

• Corey Hawkins, Suzan-Lori Parks' "Topdog/Underdog"

• Sean Hayes, "Good Night, Oscar"

• Stephen McKinley Henderson, "Between Riverside and Crazy"

• Wendell Pierce, Arthur Miller's "Death of a Salesman"

BC: This is a tough one as there are five solid performances. I'm especially thrilled that Henderson was nominated as I've seen him on stage many times. But I have to say that seeing Sean Hayes transform in "Good Night, Oscar" was one of the highlights of the season. If you go into this expecting to see Jack from "Will & Grace," you'll be disappointed — and then you'll be amazed.

IK: ^ What he said.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

• Jessica Chastain, "A Doll's House"

• Jodie Comer, "Prima Facie"

• Jessica Hecht, "Summer, 1976"

• Audra McDonald, "Ohio State Murders"

BC: Ilana, does Audra deserve a seventh Tony Award? Her performance here is amazing, but I'm going to give this to Jodie Comer. I realize Jessica Chastain will likely win, but Comer was more impressive in this one-woman legal thriller.

And talk about a contrast! Chastain sits for just about all of the show, while Comer is moving around the stage all night. Comer, for the record, won the Olivier Award for this role last year.

IK: If Audra read us the telephone book, she would deserve a seventh Tony Award. That said, I don't see it happening this year. The performances were just THAT strong. I think Comer takes this one.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

• Christian Borle, "Some Like It Hot"

• J. Harrison Ghee, "Some Like It Hot"

• Josh Groban, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"

• Brian d'Arcy James, "Into the Woods"

• Ben Platt, "Parade"

• Colton Ryan, "New York, New York"

BC: Ilana, if J. Harrison Ghee does not win, I will scream! As one of the first openly nonbinary-identifying actors to be nominated for a Tony (the other is Alex Newell of "Shucked"), Ghee is making a real difference while turning in a fun, sincere and top-notch performance as Daphne, the newfound persona of bass player Jerry.

IK: While I'd love to hear Bill scream (instead of yell at me for a change), I'm rooting for history here, too. But more than just history, they deserve it. Just a beautiful performance, vulnerable yet strong.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

• Annaleigh Ashford, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"

• Sara Bareilles, "Into the Woods"

• Victoria Clark, "Kimberly Akimbo"

• Lorna Courtney, "& Juliet"

• Micaela Diamond, "Parade"

IK: Victoria Clark IS Kimberly. A good actor can nearly disappear into their role, but it takes very little time for Clark to become a teenager in the body of a 70-something woman. You never see the 63-year-old actor playing a teenager playing a septuagenarian, which is the key entirely to making making this show work.

BC: So I'm going to guess Annaleigh Ashford will win, but I'll take Victoria Clark, too. She is the heart and soul of "Kimberly Akimbo."

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

• Jordan E. Cooper, "Ain't No Mo'"

• Samuel L. Jackson, August Wilson's "The Piano Lesson"

• Arian Moayed, "A Doll's House"

• Brandon Uranowitz, "Leopoldstadt"

• David Zayas, "Cost of Living"

BC: Ilana, I have to ask this: Why is Eric Sirakian from "The Kite Runner" not nominated? He plays the loyal childhood friend Hassan — and just about every time he was on stage, I wanted to cry. Seeing love expressed so beautifully on stage does not happen often.

IK: He absolutely would not be out of place among these nominees. Brandon Uranowitz deserves to take this home. There is a truth and a beauty in his performance here, and if he hasn't already proven it, cements his spot among the great talents of his generation.

BC: It's clear Sirakian's performance was forgotten since the show opened last summer and had a limited run that closed Oct. 30. The show was not great, but it also wasn't as bad as some critics indicated. So anyone I pick here comes in second. I'll take Zayas, who turns in a great performance, like the rest of the "Cost of Living" cast (aside from his prologue, which goes on far too long).

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

• Nikki Crawford, "Fat Ham"

• Crystal Lucas-Perry, "Ain't No Mo'"

• Miriam Silverman, "The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window"

• Katy Sullivan, "Cost of Living"

• Kara Young, "Cost of Living"

BC: I have to give this to Katy Sullivan, who gives us one of the shocks of the season in "Cost of Living."

IK: Ditto. Raw, unflinching and piercing.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

• Kevin Cahoon, "Shucked"

• Justin Cooley, "Kimberly Akimbo"

• Kevin Del Aguila, "Some Like It Hot"

• Jordan Donica, Lerner & Loewe's "Camelot"

• Alex Newell, "Shucked"

BC: Now this is a tough one. I wish Cooley and Newell and Del Aguila could all win.

IK: Right? I'll never forget interviewing Newell not all that many years ago and them telling me their dream was to be on Broadway. Now, not just a Tony nominee but a groundbreaking one who gets a mid-show standing ovation every night? Could not be happier for them. They very well could take home the award, but I think Del Aguila dances away with this one.

And I have to mention audiences may know him from "Frozen," so Bill can get mad I mentioned "Frozen." But hey, I made it through like three-quarters of this piece first!

BC: Every year, Ilana. Every year. Let it go.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

• Julia Lester, "Into the Woods"

• Ruthie Ann Miles, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"

• Bonnie Milligan, "Kimberly Akimbo"

• NaTasha Yvette Williams, "Some Like It Hot"

• Betsy Wolfe, "& Juliet"

IK: Often the mark of an impactful featured actor is taking a part that can disappear into the background and making its presence known, which Miles does so masterfully in "Sweeney Todd." But there's no danger of going unseen for Milligan and Wolfe, both brash and bold and funny and alive. I think Wolfe takes it.

BC: I've picked "Some Like It Hot" over "Akimbo" a few times, but this one is a challenge. I have to say Milligan is more memorable, so give this one to her.

Best Direction of a Play

• Saheem Ali, "Fat Ham"

• Jo Bonney, "Cost of Living"

• Jamie Lloyd, "A Doll's House"

• Patrick Marber, "Leopoldstadt"

• Stevie Walker-Webb, "Ain't No Mo'"

• Max Webster, "Life of Pi"

BC: I wouldn't be surprised if Webster wins, but I'll give this to Marber. This is a big show with a big cast and lots of moving parts — all done in about two hours. I think there should be an intermission, however.

IK: Those would also be my top two, but I think Webster takes it. And "Life of Pi" had an intermission.

BC: I know many people loved "Life of Pi." The audience went crazy at the show I saw. As a spectacle, it's very good. As a show, not so much.

Best Direction of a Musical

• Michael Arden, "Parade"

• Lear deBessonet, "Into the Woods"

• Casey Nicholaw, "Some Like It Hot"

• Jack O'Brien, "Shucked"

• Jessica Stone, "Kimberly Akimbo"

BC: To no one's surprise, I'm picking Nicholaw and "Some Like It Hot." Pure joy from start to finish.

IK: Agreed. Sometimes you want to see a director's touch, sometimes you'd rather not see the smudgy fingerprints. This one screams Nicholaw and it's a delight.

Best Scenic Design of a Play

• Miriam Buether, "Prima Facie"

• Tim Hatley and Andrzej Goulding, "Life of Pi"

• Rachel Hauck, "Good Night, Oscar"

• Richard Hudson, "Leopoldstadt"

• Dane Laffrey and Lucy Mackinnon, "A Christmas Carol"

BC: Oh how I would love to vote for "A Christmas Carol" here.

IK: Indeed. If you'll allow me to use mind-blowing and blown away in the same sentence, they both apply. From the tiny touches to the "did you really just see that" moments, it had it all. While Jefferson Mays plays all 50 characters in this one-man adaptation, I'd argue strongly he had a co-star.

BC: It's a Christmas miracle!

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

• Beowulf Boritt, "New York, New York"

• Mimi Lien, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"

• Michael Yeargan and 59 Productions, Lerner & Loewe's "Camelot"

• Scott Pask, "Shucked"

• Scott Pask, "Some Like It Hot"

BC: You may be sensing a theme here ... Scott Pask wins.

IK: Do you care to elaborate? Because he's nominated for two different shows. But in guessing what you're going to guess, I guess I agree.

Also really not sure what your favorite musical of the season was.

BC: And now I'm singing the title song: "Some Like It Hot, Some Like It Hot, Some Like It Hot." Sing it, Ilana!

Best Costume Design of a Play

• Tim Hatley, Nick Barnes and Finn Caldwell, "Life of Pi"

• Dominique Fawn Hill, "Fat Ham"

• Brigitte Reiffenstuel, "Leopoldstadt"

• Emilio Sosa, "Ain't No Mo' "

• Emilio Sosa, "Good Night, Oscar"

BC: "Life of Pi" takes it. The puppets were the best part of the show — by far.

IK: Richard Parker, we barely knew ya. Agreed.

Best Costume Design of a Musical

• Gregg Barnes, "Some Like It Hot"

• Susan Hilferty, "Parade"

• Jennifer Moeller, Lerner & Loewe's "Camelot"

• Clint Ramos and Sophia Choi, "KPOP"

• Paloma Young, "& Juliet"

• Donna Zakowska, "New York, New York"

IK: I'm not one for debating snubs, but where's "Bad Cinderella"? C'mon, those were fun! But barring that, I'm gonna use my Spidey senses and agree with Bill, before even seeing what his choice is.

BC: Do I need to say it, Ilana? Go Gregg Barnes! And you bring up a good point: Where is "Bad Cinderella"? I saw a Cinderella on stage that forgettable evening, but I'm not sure how bad she was. I wanted her to be more mean.

IK: Like you?

BC: Rude. I did like the fact that Prince Charming gets a boyfriend.

Best Lighting Design of a Play

• Neil Austin, "Leopoldstadt"

• Natasha Chivers, "Prima Facie"

• Jon Clark, "A Doll's House"

• Bradley King, "Fat Ham"

• Tim Lutkin, "Life of Pi"

• Jen Schriever, Arthur Miller's "Death of a Salesman"

• Ben Stanton, "A Christmas Carol"

BC: It's "Christmas" in June!

IK: I'm not sure if a candle counts as lighting or a prop, but regardless, once again, a huge element in why this show worked so well.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

• Ken Billington, "New York, New York"

• Lap Chi Chu, Lerner & Loewe's "Camelot"

• Heather Gilbert, "Parade"

• Howard Hudson, "& Juliet"

• Natasha Katz, "Some Like It Hot"

• Natasha Katz, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"

BC: There are some nice moments in "New York, New York" and "Sweeney Todd," but I'm taking Natasha Katz. Because I want to.

IK: You do know she, um, also designed "Sweeney Todd," right? And I'd pick her to win for either because if Bill can obfuscate, so can I.

Best Sound Design of a Play

• Jonathan Deans & Taylor Williams, "Ain't No Mo'"

• Carolyn Downing, "Life of Pi"

• Joshua D. Reid, "A Christmas Carol"

• Ben and Max Ringham, "A Doll's House"

• Ben & Max Ringham, "Prima Facie"

BC: Can "Christmas" come again, Ilana?

IK: If Scrooge says he will "honor Christmas in my heart, and try to keep it all the year," so can the Tony Awards. Although it would work nicely if they were in July, though.

Best Sound Design of a Musical

• Kai Harada, "New York, New York"

• John Shivers, "Shucked"

• Scott Lehrer and Alex Neumann, "Into the Woods"

• Gareth Owen, "& Juliet"

• Nevin Steinberg, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"

BC: None of these are jumping out, but I'll take "Shucked."

IK: "Into the Woods" intrigues me here.

Best Choreography

• Steven Hoggett, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"

• Casey Nicholaw, "Some Like It Hot"

• Susan Stroman, "New York, New York"

• Jennifer Weber, "& Juliet"

• Jennifer Weber, "KPOP"

IK: I think Casey Nicholaw has it in the bag, but none of these is a slouch. Happy to see "KPOP" recognized with a well-deserved nomination.

BC: Go Casey Nicholaw!!! And no comment on "KPOP."

Best Orchestrations

• Bill Sherman and Dominic Fallacaro, "& Juliet"

• John Clancy, "Kimberly Akimbo"

• Jason Howland, "Shucked"

• Charlie Rosen and Bryan Carter, "Some Like It Hot"

• Daryl Waters and Sam Davis, "New York, New York"

BC: And another win for "Some Like It Hot." How many is that, Ilana?

IK: Not so fast. I mean, maybe. But I think "New York, New York" or even "& Juliet" could give it a run for its money.

BC: "Start spreading the news ...

IK: You're leaving today?

BC: "Ilana is wrong ... "

IK: We'll find out who's top of the heap Sunday night.

Do you agree with our picks? Let us know at wcanacci@gannettnj.com and ikeller@gannettnj.com or on Twitter at @BillCanacci and @ilanakeller. And follow us Sunday as we live-tweet the show.

Tony Award nominations by production

• "Some Like It Hot" - 13

• "& Juliet" - 9

• "New York, New York" - 9

• "Shucked" - 9

• "Kimberly Akimbo" - 8

• "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" - 8

• "Ain't No Mo'" - 6

• "A Doll's House" - 6

• "Into the Woods" - 6

• "Leopoldstadt" - 6

• "Parade" - 6

• "Cost of Living" - 5

• "Fat Ham" - 5

• Lerner & Loewe's "Camelot" - 5

• "Life of Pi" - 5

• "Prima Facie" - 4

• "A Christmas Carol" - 3

• "Good Night, Oscar" - 3

• "KPOP" - 3

• Suzan-Lori Parks' "Topdog/Underdog" - 3

• Arthur Miller's "Death of a Salesman" - 2

• August Wilson's "The Piano Lesson" - 2

• "Between Riverside and Crazy" - 2

• "The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window" - 2

• "Almost Famous" - 1

• "Ohio State Murders" - 1

• "Summer, 1976" - 1

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Tony Awards 2023: Nominations and predictions on who will win