Who will win NASCAR Cup Series championship race in Phoenix? Predictions, odds and more

And now for the ultimate question:

Who will win it all?

The green flag for the NASCAR Cup Series championship will fly at 3 p.m. ET on NBC, and the youngest Championship 4 since the modern playoffs were established will race for that elusive title.

Will Kyle Larson grab his second Cup championship, stamping a milestone onto what’s already been a generational career? Will Christopher Bell continue to build on his clutch legacy? And what about the always-good-at-Phoenix Ryan Blaney, or the young Charlotte native William Byron — what do their prospects look like?

Bell is the underdog at +450 odds, per DraftKings Sportsbook on Saturday. Byron was at +380, Blaney was at +285 and Kyle Larson is the favorite at +275.

Here’s a look at who experts across the country — as well as at The Charlotte Observer — think will win Sunday’s finale.

Observer writers make picks for Cup championship

Shane Connuck: Kyle Larson. Some of the best drivers on the fastest teams in the Cup Series were eliminated before the Championship 4. Kyle Larson wasn’t one of them.

Denny Hamlin, the 42-year-old driver still chasing his first championship, had a consistently fast car that collected five Top 10 finishes in nine playoff races, but a mechanical power steering failure at Homestead ultimately doomed his chances of reaching the Championship 4. Martin Truex Jr. secured the regular-season title over wins leader William Byron — and bowed out with Hamlin after an inconsistent playoffs.

Larson, the 31-year-old driver who won in 2021, already has a pair of playoff wins — Darlington and Las Vegas. Throughout the season, he’s tallied more laps led than anybody in the Cup Series with 1,127 (Hamlin is second with 984). He entered the playoffs with two wins, both in April, and boasts 17 Top 10 finishes.

Two years removed from emerging victorious in this race, his lone win at Phoenix, Larson is now the oldest driver in the Championship 4. I’m predicting the No. 5 Chevy will take the checkered flag and win its second NASCAR Cup Series championship.

Alex Zietlow: Ryan Blaney. My storytelling heart wishes I could rewrite the past nine weeks, deliver Kevin Harvick a deserved win at Darlington to begin the playoffs, advance him through the Round of 12 and through the Round of 8 and into the Championship 4 — and then ultimately choose him to win it all today, hoping the future first-ballot Hall of Famer will ride blissfully into the retirement-tinted sun. I wield no such power, of course. And that means I have to choose the other driver who is about as good at Phoenix as Harvick once was in his heyday — and that’s Blaney.

The driver of the No. 12 car who is seeking his first Cup title has had an up-and-down year. He got emotional after his long-awaited win at Charlotte Motor Speedway in the Coke 600, choking up while saying, “You start to get to feel like you can’t win anymore when you don’t win in a while.” He experienced the lows of all other Ford Cup drivers through the relatively difficult season. He won his way into the Round of 8 and then won at Martinsville a week ago to get here.

But in an inconsistent season, he continued to be great at Phoenix, and many in the garage consider him to be the best in the desert. He finished second at Phoenix Raceway in March, and also second in last year’s Cup championship race, pushing his Team Penske teammate Joey Logano to a win. And not only that: He’s peaking at the right time (and was particularly fast in practice).

In sum, since rewriting Sunday’s story isn’t an option, let’s write this one early: Blaney will be the 2023 Cup Series champion.

What other experts think of NASCAR odds

Jordan Bianchi and Jeff Gluck, The Athletic: Gluck takes Ryan Blaney, and Bianchi takes Kyle Larson. They each cited pertinent stats and avoided waxing poetic about Kevin Harvick’s retirement. A concept!

Bob Pockrass, Fox Sports: Pockrass acknowledged that an argument could be made for each driver to win this one, but he ultimately declared Larson as his choice. He pointed out that Larson tends to rise up in pressure situations and that he led 201 laps in Phoenix in the spring.

Nate Ryan, NBC Sports: Ryan is going with Kyle Larson, rationalizing that not only is he experienced here, he also has a huge head start of preparation, thanks to his win at Las Vegas to begin the Round of 8.