Who will win one of this year's toughest fights and become 2024's GOP VP?

When then-candidate Donald Trump finally selected Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate in the 2016 presidential elections, it was, as The New York Times noted that summer, a "concession to standard political imperatives" from a decidedly non-standard candidate. While Pence's rollout as a vice presidential candidate was marked by Trump's characteristically attention-seeking bombast — a process that "[made] his campaign look like a mess," according to The Washington Post's Philip Bump — it was, practically speaking, an admission that as a political neophyte and outsider, Trump needed the mainstream conservative bona fides and connections of a consummate GOP insider like Pence to galvanize support for his first national election. It was a relationship which ultimately would not last.

This time around, again-candidate Trump is in a very different position than he was nearly eight years ago. Not only does he sit comfortably atop a robust field of fellow Republican presidential aspirants, but he does so in the context of a broader GOP that has largely reshaped itself in his image. No longer an untested underdog battling his way to the front of a crowded pack, Trump is now an — perhaps even the — elder statesman of his party, acting as a center of gravity for fellow Republicans who are eager to hitch their political fortunes to his MAGA cart. In practice, this means intense speculation and behind-the-scenes jockeying to secure a position as his next VP pick, even before a single vote has been cast in the 2024 primary race. With a week to go before Iowans kick off the campaign season with their first-in-the-nation caucus on Jan. 15, the race to become Trump's veep pick is already picking up some noticeable steam.

What the commentators said

In an interview with NBC News this past September, Trump himself stressed that while he was "going to choose the best person" as his VP pick, he "like[d] the concept" of a woman as his running mate. The choice will be "difficult" as the former president's "personal needs will dominate" the selection process, according to The Miami Herald's Robert Pawlicki. Predicting that Trump's pick will indeed "likely will be a woman — and rabidly loyal," Pawlicki nevertheless ruled out candidates already "on the Republican presidential debate stage" and instead offered both South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (who has already said she's open to the opportunity) and failed Arizona Gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake as sufficiently deferential options.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) may be "auditioning" for the role of Trump's VP pick, MSNBC host Alex Witt speculated, after the congresswoman staunchly defended Trump during a recent appearance on NBC's Meet the Press. Former GOP Rep. David Jolly agreed, musing that "there is no one in America running harder" for the role than Stefanik.

With her political star rising as fellow Republican Presidential candidate Ron DeSantis' fades, former Trump United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley has become a focal point for VP speculation, as she surges in the polls ahead of the Iowa caucuses. Placing her on the ticket would suggest Trump is "at least vaguely interested in soothing skittish, non-MAGA women," The New York Times' Michelle Cottle reported, cautioning that it's "hard to see how Mr. Trump gets past that whole disloyalty thing with her." For her part, Haley has "repeatedly refused to reject" joining the Trump campaign, according to Reuters, explaining in a recent interview with the Union Leader that to do so would be the "news for days" and slow her momentum in the polls. For its part, the Trump campaign has made a "fervid effort to kill off Haley's veep buzz before it truly takes off," Politico reported late last month.

What next?

Ultimately, picking a white, male MAGA adherent would likely be the "easiest, most comfortable fit for a guy who favors unchallenging mini-mes" according to the Times' Cottle. Rather than selecting a running mate who complements his skills and helps expand his potential voting base, "the smartest bet" is that Trump will choose someone who "best accommodates his ego," agreed The Herald's Pawlicki.

For its part, the Trump campaign claimed in a statement to USA Today that for now, the former president is "solely focused on winning the Republican nomination" and nothing more.