Who would win SC GOP presidential primary if it were today? Here’s how candidates rank

Who will win the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?

Since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina Republican presidential nominating contest has gone on to win the nomination with the exception of 2012. The Republican Party nominated Mitt Romney that year, but Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary.

The State newspaper plans to conduct a regular political power ranking of who is up and down in the race as the 2024 primary approaches.

We asked five political observers to rank who they think has the best chance to win the South Carolina presidential primary if it were held today. A first place vote received five points, a second place vote received four points, a third place vote received three points, a fourth place vote received two points and a fifth place vote received one point.

Winning the First in the South presidential primary doesn’t require a majority vote. The winner is whoever receives the most votes.

Although national polls indicate who’s leading in the race nationally, the nomination likely will be decided through individual state nominating contests.

Honorable mentions who also received votes: former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

Fifth Place: Doug Burgum

The North Dakota governor had little name recognition before he launched his campaign and was not on many radar screens before throwing his name into the hat.

But he still received two fifth place votes in our poll.

“It may be the only time we get to mention him, and his chances seem about as good as all the others whose names we wouldn’t recognize if the election were held today,” said Danielle Vinson, a professor of politics and international affairs at Furman University.

But Burgum has money in the bank. His own. That could help him raise his profile in the early voting states.

“Burgum is worth over a billion dollars and while the 2020 Democratic nomination proved that money can only get you so far (see Steyer and Bloomberg), it certainly can’t hurt,” said Chase Meyer, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina.

Fourth Place: Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who launched her campaign in February, has been making the circuit around to Iowa, New Hampshire and the Palmetto State. She also has visited Texas to highlight energy policy and border security and given a speech on abortion restrictions at the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America offices.

Haley was governor from 2011 to 2017, which gives her connections in the state.

Chip Felkel, a public and political affairs strategist worked on the presidential campaigns of George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, said “Haley will get favorite daughter treatment.”

Haley stepped down from the governor’s office to serve as ambassador to the United Nations.

“It has been several years since she has last won an election — how much of her governorship do South Carolinians really remember?” Meyer said.

Haley reminds voters that when she ran for governor in 2010, very few people knew who she was early in the primary election. She ended up finishing first in the four-person primary election and won the run-off.

“She’s got guts. She’s got fight. She’s got experience.,” said Dave Wilson, a longtime political strategist in South Carolina. “Her biggest issue in South Carolina is going to be differentiating herself and getting South Carolina voters to turn out for her again against a crowded pack of A-listers.”

Third Place: Tim Scott

U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, South Carolina’s junior senator, recently rolled out 140 endorsements of current and former elected officials, including many state lawmakers.

In addition to the South Carolina endorsements, Scott is backed by U.S. Senate Republican Whip John Thune of South Dakota.

“Tim Scott has a history of winning landslide elections in South Carolina, never winning below 60% in his elections to the House and the Senate, and sports one of the better approval ratings of any senator and seems to be the favorite of Republican leadership in the Senate,” Meyer said.

Scott, the U.S. Senate’s only Black Republican, also started the race with $22 million in his campaign account left over from this reelection campaign last year.

“He’s a happy alternative for those who aren’t just interested in style or culture wars,” Vinson said. “He really hasn’t taken any positions that would alienate South Carolina voters. And he has money.”

Second Place: Ron DeSantis

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis comes into the race with his fighter mentality, taking on Disney and pushing “anti-woke” politics.

“DeSantis excites the Republican base and is best positioned to pick up voters if Trump stumbles,” said Gibbs Knotts, a political science professor at the College of Charleston.

He raised $8.2 million on the first day after kicking off his presidential campaign, which even included a shaky Twitter Spaces conversation with Elon Musk.

“Folks looking for a counter to the liberal, progressive overreach that they see coming out of the Biden White House and woke corporate America are showing up at his rallies by counts well over a thousand. He’s gaining traction, but he’s also got to show some level of sustainability,” Wilson said. “Internally, he has a tight operation. Externally, he’s got to show the ‘I’m really getting to know you’ side of politics that voters in early primary states expect to see.”

First Place: Donald Trump

The former president was a unanimous first place vote even though he is dealing with two indictments with two more potentially waiting in the wings.

He’s attempting to be the first president since Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms.

Trump won the 2016 South Carolina primary and carried the state in the 2016 and 2020 general elections.

He has the support of Gov. Henry McMaster, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham and Congressmen Russell Fry, William Timmons and Joe Wilson.

He’s also leading the national polls as well as polls in South Carolina.

“Until he’s not leading all the polls, he’s the favorite,” Vinson said.

Trump was indicted earlier this month in federal court for allegedly refusing to hand over classified documents to the National Archives. He also was indicted in March on charges that he falsified business records related to payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, who claimed she had an affair with Trump.

“The indictment seems to have hardened support for the former president despite his general election challenges,” Felkel said.

But the legal issues could lead to his downfall.

“Ongoing legal troubles could open the door for other candidates,” Knotts said.