Who will win the US Open? Betting preview, tips and prediction

The third men’s golf major of the year gets underway this week as the US Open takes place at The Country Club - more commonly known as Brookline - in Massachusetts.

There’s been a flip at the top of the betting market following the first two majors of the season, as Rory McIlroy - fresh off an impressive win at the Canadian Open over the weekend - is now the bookies’ favourite, just ahead of US PGA champion Justin Thomas. World No 1 Scottie Scheffler and reigning US Open champion Jon Rahm have now slipped from the top two slots into third and fourth.

Below the top four, there are plenty of candidates with compelling cases as to why they will be lifting the trophy come Sunday evening, including the likes of Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith, Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry and Collin Morikawa. The face of Saudi-funded breakaway tour LIV Golf, Phil Mickelson, will once again try to complete the career grand slam by winning that elusive US Open, having finished as runner-up on a remarkable six occasions.

In some ways, Brookline will provide a typical US Open test - higher scoring than the other majors, punishing, thick rough if you stray wide of the fairways, small, raised greens that often have false fronts and a demand for long driving in order to succeed - but, having been redesigned in 2009, it appears to be a fair test that offers some birdie chances including an intriguing par-three 11th hole that is only 131 yards, less than a full wedge for a lot of players.

US Open champions of a recent vintage have tended to be higher-ranked players - you have to go back to 2010 to find the last time a winner came from outside the world’s top 30 - and with 40 of the last 41 major winners ranked inside the world’s top 50 at the time of their triumph (Mickelson being the exception at the 2021 US PGA Championship), the top of the betting market seems to be the more sensible place to fish for this week’s victor.

Here is everything you need to know:

When is the U.S. Open?

The tournament will get underway on Thursday 16 June and will run to Sunday 19 June. It will be played at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts.

How can I watch it online and on TV?

The action will be shown on Sky Sports, with both Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Golf carrying the coverage. If you’re not a Sky customer you can grab a NOWTV Day Pass here to watch without a subscription. We may earn commission from some of the links in this article, but we never allow this to influence our content. This revenue helps to fund journalism across The Independent.

Our picks

Jon Rahm - 11/1: The defending champion looks to have a live chance to emulate Brooks Koepka in 2018 by winning back-to-back US Opens. This tournament is generally won by a brilliant driver and Rahm might just be the best in the world with that club in his hand - his blend of power and precision seeing him lead the total driving charts (a combination of fairways and distance) and sit top of the PGA Tour rankings for strokes-gained off-the-tee. He hits a huge amount of greens and although he’s only had modest results this season, he’s a proven major performer and an incredible competitor with the ability to bounce back.

Xander Schauffele - 14/1: His consistency at the majors in general, but the US Open specifically, is remarkable. The California native has never failed to place in his US Open career - with an incredible record that reads 5-6-3-5-7 - and he thrives on the tougher test this tournament presents, so an each-way return at least feels almost guaranteed. He got back in the winner’s circle at the Zurich Classic in April, finished a solid 13th at the US PGA and, with no discernible weakness in his game, he feels like a major winner in waiting.

Matt Fitzpatrick - 18/1: Leading the English charge is Fitzpatrick, who is on an upward trajectory in 2022 that has seen an impressive T14 at the Masters followed up by his best-ever major finish of T5 at last month’s US Open. In addition to being in the form of his life, the Sheffield native has history at Brookline as not only one of the few players in the field to play at the course since its redesign but also a champion at the venue, having won the 2013 US Amateur Championship here. His ability to avoid bogeys is a key trait at any US Open and he feels ready to step into elite company.

Our outsiders

Joaquin Niemann - 22/1: The Chilean is another who looks ready to make his mark at majors after winning the Genesis Invitational earlier this year and then equipping himself brilliantly in a three-ball with Tiger Woods at the Masters before fading at the weekend. A solid 23rd in the US PGA, a third-place finish at the Memorial last time out and another T3 at arguably the most ‘US Open-esque’ PGA Tour event of the last couple of years (the 2020 BMW Championship, won by Rahm) all make for an intriguing case.

Justin Rose - 33/1: Rose won the US Open way back in 2013 but it’s his recent form that makes him such an interesting contender. At 41 years old, he no longer has the consistency he once did but is in a purple patch that has seen him finish in the top 15 in three of his past four starts and the remarkable Sunday 60 he carded at the Canadian Open shows how explosive he can still be. Throw in a T3 at the 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach, which is the course with the most striking similarities to Brookline, and he looks worth a dabble.

Ryan Fox - 125/1: As a real outside punt, Fox - son of the legendary All Blacks rugby fly-half Grant Fox - looks intriguing as a good driver, who is in form on the DP World Tour. His last four DP World Tour starts read 2-2-8-9, his iron play has been outstanding which will be key to attacking the small Brookline greens and the New Zealander could go well on the other side of the pond.

Odds in full

8/1: Rory McIlroy

9/1: Justin Thomas

10/1: Scottie Scheffler

11/1: Jon Rahm

14/1: Xander Schauffele

16/1: Cameron Smith

18/1: Jordan Spieth, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Patrick Cantlay

20/1: Sam Burns, Shane Lowry, Will Zalatoris

22/1: Collin Morikawa, Joaquin Niemann, Sung-Jae Im, Viktor Hovland

25/1: Cameron Young, Max Homa, Tony Finau

28/1: Corey Conners, Daniel Berger, Hideki Matsuyama

33/1: Aaron Wise, Billy Horschel, Brooks Koepka, Davis Riley, Harold Varner III, Justin Rose, Mito Pereira, Tommy Fleetwood

40/1: Dustin Johnson, Keegan Bradley, Louis Oosthuizen

50/1: Abraham Ancer, Talor Gooch, Webb Simpson

66/1: Adam Scott, Bryson DeChambeau, Jason Kokrak, Patrick Reed, Russell Henley, Seamus Power, Sebastian Munoz

80/1: Sergio Garcia, Tyrrell Hatton

100/1: Gary Woodland, Si Woo Kim

125/1: Brian Harman, Luke List, Marc Leishman, Ryan Fox, Tom Hoge

150/1: Alex Noren, K.H. Lee, Kevin Na, Phil Mickelson, Thomas Pieters, Victor Perez

Odds taken from Betfair as of June 15