Winderman: Yes, you can drive a tank through a bubble (feeling a draft at Disney) | Commentary

It usually is the sole concern of those in the lottery, tanking for draft position.

But with nothing usual this NBA season, the upcoming final week of the seeding games at Disney World could create a few draft twists, as well.

First, consider that there is absolutely no difference between being the No. 4 or No. 5 seed in either conference, other than having your pretend fans instead of their pretend fans on the video boards.

In that vein, homecourt isn't a thing, with all games at the Wide World of Sports complex.

Then consider that while formal tiebreakers will come into play when it comes to determining playoff seeding, the same ties, when it comes to draft position, are determined by random draw. (And in some cases, ties can be avoided all together, because of the uneven number of games teams will play.)

As a matter of perspective, the Heat go into the final week of seeding games positioned to draft anywhere from No. 18 to No. 26.

That is a wide enough range where teams actually could find themselves with the need to trade up, or desire to trade down. No, it's not quite as dramatic as the top of the draft, nor anything close to the considerations and sweating out that went into the Miami Dolphins holding No. 5 in the NFL Draft and landing Tua Tagovailoa at that spot.

Then consider that with two of the Heat's final three games against the Indiana Pacers, a team the Heat are battling at No. 4-No. 5 in the East, the Heat could win a draft slot by losing a seeding spot.

Again, there is absolutely no difference between being a No. 4 or No. 5 seed. You still almost assuredly, by advancing, wind up with the Milwaukee Bucks in the second round.

So while draft position is the least of Erik Spoelstra's concerns at this moment (or any other moment), there always is that hotline from Pat Riley.

To put into perspective what a draft slot or two can mean beyond the lottery, consider some of the Heat's draft history.

In 2007, the Heat traded No. 20 pick Jason Smith to the Philadelphia 76ers for No. 21 pick Daequan Cook, gaining a second-round pick in the process.

In 2010, the Heat traded No. 32 pick Bojan Bogdanovic and a second-round pick to the Minnesota Timberwolves for No. 28 pick Norris Cole.

In 2014, the Heat traded No. 26 pick P.J. Hairston and a second-round pick to the Charlotte Hornets for No. 24 pick Shabazz Napier.

So, yes, sweating the small stuff can make a difference, even in the latter stages of the first round.

Granted, forecasting who will be available in the 20s more than two months ahead of the draft is an exercise in randomness, especially in a down draft year.

"What I've heard," an Eastern Conference scout said, "is the pick at 23 or 22 is the same pick at 35. It's top heavy. It's a bad draft."

But it's never a bad draft if you are targeting a specific player and that player is just beyond your reach, therefore requiring a payment premium, as was the case for the Heat with Cole in 2010 or Napier in 2014.

To limit chicanery at Disney, the NBA locked the lottery teams into place based on the March 11 standings, when the league shut down for four months amid the coronavirus pandemic. That removed any incentive for the Washington Wizards to tank (as opposed to their organic losing) or for the Phoenix Suns to risk their lottery seed (with the result a spirited Suns showing at Disney).

But, otherwise, for those outside of the lottery, in a season the league is tightly packed in the middle, there will be games this coming week that will have more of an impact on the Oct. 16 NBA draft than how the playoff seedings will shake out.

So, yes, you can drive a tank through a bubble in Central Florida in August.

IN THE LANE

THE PLAY-IN: More please. While not as charitable as the NHL’s seemingly-everyone-makes-the-playoffs approach, the NBA has hit upon something with its play-in setup for the final playoff seed in each conference. While it won’t be a factor in the East, every game will matter in the West in the races for Nos. 8-9. The format is basic: If the No. 9 team is within four or fewer games of No. 8 at season’s end, then the two teams meet in a play-in round, with No. 8 needing to win only once, No. 9 twice to advance to the postseason. Without the approach, it would have had the New Orleans Pelicans, San Antonio Spurs, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings and Portland Trail Blazers thinking more about lottery than playoffs. The problem is that in a regular season, the schedule ends on a Wednesday with the postseason opening on a Saturday, to maximize weekend viewership. So an entire league therefore would have to be put on hold for the play-in element. Beyond that, at Disney there is no need for travel. But during a typical season, would No. 8 and No. 9 each be scheduled for a home game? (Which could create long-distance travel, such as Memphis to Portland.) And which would be the preferred home game for No. 8, the first one that could end it all and is a guaranteed home gate? Or the winner-take-all second game, need be?

RESPECT EARNED: No, it wasn't a victory that would have completed a 3-0 season sweep, but even in falling 130-116 to the Milwaukee Bucks, the Heat earned their share of respect by first going up by 23, while playing Thursday in the injury absences of Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. "They move so much," presumptive MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo said. "They set hard screens. They go back door. The ball never sticks with somebody. It's hard to guard. You have to be ready to play them every night, because they're going to play hard. They're going to move the ball. They're going to set hard screens, so you have to be ready to guard."

BAM STOPPER: While the bubble hyperbole had Bam Adebayo as Giannis stopper, until Antetokounmpo’s 33-point breakout Thursday, the Toronto Raptors now seem to be fancying OG Anunoby as some sort of Bam stopper, after he helped limit Adebayo to 10 points in Toronto’s Monday victory. “He was great for us to be able to go from guarding LeBron [James] to Bam and whoever we play next,” Raptors guard Fred VanVleet said. “He’s our primary defender and I think the more he relishes that role, the more successful we’re gonna be.” Count Heat coach Erik Spoelstra as respectful of the 6-foot-7 2017 No. 23 pick out of Indiana. “He’s really improved,” Spoelstra said. “We respect their player-development program, because guys tend to get better the longer they’re with the Raptors.”

SECOND CHANCE: To say the bubble has given former Heat guard Tyler Johnson new life would be an understatement. From out of the league since February, now, because the Brooklyn Nets' injury/illness decimation, Johnson is going to the playoffs. "Tyler gives us great energy on both sides of the floor," Nets guard Caris LeVert said of his fill-in running mate. "He has the high IQ. He knows where to be offensively with spacing and things like that. Then, defensively, we know what we're going to get. He's going to play hard each and every possession."

NUMBER

30. Seasons since the Heat had rookies who combined to average at least 25 points per game. The Heat’s rookies went into the weekend averaging 26. The only times the team’s rookies averaged higher was in the franchise’s first two seasons (50.4 in 1988-89, when basically everyone was a rookie during the expansion season; and 32.9 in 1989-90, the franchise’s second season).

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