A bunch of hot air: Don't blame meteorologists for the snow missing expectations
A winter storm that cleared store shelves and led to school cancellations Wednesday dropped less snow than forecasters predicted.
Snow fell in heavy flakes across the state Wednesday morning, covering Indianapolis in a blanket of white. Frosty weather conditions left roadways slushy and slippery, and led schools and public offices to close.
Indiana State Troopers responded to 44 crashes with six injuries, along with 27 drivers who slid off the road and 28 motorists who needed help during a roughly 10-hour window beginning at 4 a.m.
Despite hazardous driving conditions, it wasn't a winter storm as dire as meteorologists initially feared.
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Meteorologists with the National Weather Service on Tuesday had predicted as much as 5-8 inches of snow possible for Indianapolis, a forecast which fell short as area temperatures hovered in the mid-30s and snows tapered. By noon, the city recorded about three inches.
"I know this was on the lower range of our snowfall forecast," said NWS meteorologist Cody Moore. "It was because the snow was just so heavy and wet; it just compacted."
Moore said surface temperatures Wednesday were right around 32-33 degrees, causing a race between how heavy the snow was falling and accumulating, and how quickly it was melting.
Those factors and others, Moore said, have to align perfectly to get a significant snow event throughout Indiana and the Ohio Valley.
"If one of your factors is off by even one degree, your whole forecast can be a bust," Moore said. "The difference between one degree in temperatures can mean a difference between 5-8 inches of snow or 3-5 like what we saw ...so the slightest little change that might not seem like a big deal has — no pun intended — a snowball effect."
The winter storm warning that was originally in place until 7 p.m. Wednesday was lifted by around 3 p.m.
"Now that the majority of the snow has ended, and conditions appear to be improving across the area, basically, there's no need for those headlines anymore," meteorologist Mike Ryan told IndyStar.
"There's still some snow showers out there," Ryan added. But, he said, "it's light (and) we're not expecting a lot of impact from it."
Ryan said they're expecting scattered snow showers Thursday, with accumulation in some areas that could reach half an inch.
The weekend forecast was less clear, he said.
"I do think there are some chances for snow going forward through the weekend and into early next week, but we'll have a lot more detail on that once we get into the weekend," he said.
John Tufts covers evening breaking and trending news for the Indianapolis Star. Send him a news tip at JTufts@Gannett.com. Johnny Magdaleno contributed to this story.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: How much snow did Indianapolis get? What do meteorologists have to say?
