WNC experts talk fall foliage; Will Hurricane Ian threaten Asheville's leaf season?

ASHEVILLE - In the midst of what one expert calls the "ideal weather to bring on fall color," Asheville can anticipate the beginning of good, bright foliage in the coming weeks, with points of color showing in the area's highest elevations by the weekend.

Bright, sunny days and cool nights mean "perfect" conditions to bring on the year's fall foliage, said Beverly Collins, a biology professor and fall foliage forecaster at Western Carolina University in Cullowhee.

She is anticipating strong early fall color, but warns of warmer weather in October, which could slow color change and scatter the impact of turning foliage, meaning less vibrant colors later on that last a little bit longer, she said.

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“An earlier early fall, and a later late fall,” Collins said. Already, some species have begun to change − with walnut, tulip poplar, sumac, sourwoods and black gums teasing vibrant yellows and reds, at higher elevations. The cool overnight temperatures and sunny days are prime conditions for bright pigment.

Howard Neufeld, professor of plant eco-physiology at Appalachian State University in Boone who also runs the “Fall Color Guy” Facebook page, said if weather patterns continue as they have been, Asheville and Western North Carolina can expect a good, on-time fall color season.

For the forests of WNC, this means leaves will reach their peak yellow and oranges in mid-October, with the Blue Ridge Parkway reaching its peak around Oct. 10-18 in the Asheville area, he said, if colors remain on time.

Over the weekend, Neufeld went on a fall color excursion on the parkway north of Asheville to Craggy Gardens and Mount Mitchell, which at 6,684 feet elevation is the highest peak of the Appalachian Mountains. Though green still dominated, some individual trees were in full color, and in another week, he anticipated "really nice" color as trees continue to change.

Collins agreed. Though it won't yet be at the peak, the coming weekend could bring "spots of color" in higher elevations, the perfect place for those first glimpses of Western North Carolina's iconic fall foliage.

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“There’s nothing that’s pointing to a bad fall color year, and the only thing that could disrupt it is a heat wave coming in or a hurricane at the wrong time,” Neufeld said.

Collins echoed the sentiment −"all bets are off," she said of hurricane threats, which could cut a fall foliage season short, especially if it hits once trees have begun to turn in earnest.

They both acknowledged the hurricane strengthening in the western Caribbean, though meteorologists say its exact impact on North Carolina is "uncertain."

Bill Martin, science and operations officer with the National Weather Service, said Sept. 26 that heavy rainfall is expected over the weekend as a result of Hurricane Ian, though the amount is difficult to predict this early.

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There could be a chance of wind speeds between 20 and 30 mph, he said, but hurricanes decline rapidly in intensity as they go further inland, and Ian will traverse Florida, Georgia and South Carolina before it reaches North Carolina.

“(It will) bring a lot of moisture into this area and a lot of rain, that’s what we expect,” Martin said, adding that the weather service will have a clearer idea of the hurricane impact later in the week.

Neufeld said Hurricane Ian, even bringing rainfall and higher winds, does not necessarily spell the end of the year's fall foliage. With leaves still so green, most of the trees will hold onto their vegetation so long as winds aren't too high.

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The best color requires a predominance of sunny and cool days, he said, but a weekend storm won't change that. A longer period of cloudy or rainy days, however can mean trouble, potentially dulling colors.

“I think we’re still on for a good color season,” Neufeld said.

Neufeld said that if October brings cooling temperatures and neither extreme rainfall or drought, high elevation sites, such as Graveyard Fields and Craggy Gardens, with elevations sitting above 5,000 feet, could begin to turn the first week of October.

In the 3,000 to 4,000 foot range on the Blue Ridge Parkway the colors could begin to turn in mid-October, from Oct. 10-20.

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In the third week, from Oct. 20 to the end of the month, fall colors could begin to peak in the city of Asheville, around the Biltmore Estate and in Hendersonville.

He warned, that if temperatures are trending warmer, it could delay these peaks from a few days to a week.

The National Weather Service predicts cool nights, with lows in the 40s, for the week ahead, and daytime temperatures capping at about 70 degrees.

Martin said thought the tropical system could bring warmer weather over the weekend, climate predictions for October show declining temperatures, a shift kickstarted by a cold front that brought a 10-degree drop Sept. 22 and 23.

“It’s been fall since then in terms of how it feels,” Martin said, a trend he anticipates will continue.

Sarah Honosky is the city government reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. News Tips? Email shonosky@citizentimes.com or message on Twitter at @slhonosky. 

This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Fall foliage 2022: What's threatening Asheville's 'ideal' leaf season?