Wondering which Tropical Storm Idalia spaghetti model is the best? There's no clear winner

Over the years, hurricane spaghetti models have become one of the most popularly searched topics during hurricane season — and the subject of widely shared memes. There are dozens of spaghetti models, each vying to be the best, most accurate model and each goes about that goal differently.

Understanding which spaghetti model is the best at predicting a hurricane’s path is a complicated and ultimately pointless task.

"If one model was best all the time, we'd quit running all the other models," Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, told the Florida Times-Union in a 2020 interview. "I generally wish the spaghetti plots weren't shown like they are because not all of those lines are equal.”

Spaghetti models are works of modern marvels as each model is the culmination of tens of billions of clues crunched by supercomputers. Those clues contain information regarding every drop of rain in a thunderstorm, which direction the wind blew on a Sunday afternoon at 2:32 p.m., how warm the ocean surface was that day and an untold number of other factors that have never even come close to crossing the general person’s mind.

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Each model analyzes this data using a set of carefully selected equations chosen by its programmer to spit out that single line on a graph drowned out by the dozens of other lines shown on a spaghetti model chart. Glazing over the minute details, each model ultimately serves a different purpose and can be better — or worse — at predicting a hurricane’s path depending on these underlying facets.

Spaghetti models do not analyze a set of universal data, however.

In other words, the answer for which spaghetti model is the best doesn’t exist. A “better” way to view spaghetti models is to see which models agree rather than singling out your favorite and if each have differing opinions on the hurricane's path.

Here’s what you need to know about using hurricane spaghetti models.

Use global forecasting models first

Several global forecasting models are used all over the world to predict daily weather, plus regional models that incorporate global models to make more localized predictions. It is best to start off looking at these global models first to look for agreement and then look at localized models to find more granular details. The National Hurricane Weather Research Model (NHWR) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) offer a level of detail that global models lack. Both of these models focus on storm intensity.

There are different types of spaghetti models

While spaghetti models are all trying to accomplish a similar goal — tracking hurricane paths — they differ in how they go about it. Some weather models may be built on atmospheric dynamics or statistics, while others are built on top of other models. Trying to interpret why a lone spaghetti model predicts a hurricane will travel up the East Coast while the majority of others predict it will run through Florida isn’t really possible without knowing its type, main use and what data it is based on.

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The timing and volume of data matters

Spaghetti models are only as good as the data they are based on. You will often see models referred to as “early” or “late” models. Some are single-run models while others are referred to as “ensemble” models. Each of these words matter because they give you an idea about the quality of data used when providing the model.

Early models are based on the smaller amount of data collected early in a storm’s cycle or based on historical data. These models are not necessarily inaccurate at the time they are provided but could be misinterpreted by someone who doesn’t understand the context behind the data. Late models will be more accurate when compared to early models by default due to the difference in quantity of data, but it’s somewhat of an apples-to-oranges comparison.

The point of origin matters

A spaghetti model’s point of origin is important to consider because that is where the model is most accurate. That accuracy decreases over time which means there must be no issue with a model’s point of origin.

Spaghetti model “ensembles”

The Weather Channel recommends paying attention to spaghetti model “ensembles” in the early cycle of a hurricane, between 3-7 days in advance. Ensembles are different from typical spaghetti models in that they will show dozens of runs from the same model with slightly varying conditions to provide a range of possibilities. The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble is run 20 times while the Euro model is run 20 times.

This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Tracking Tropical Storm Idalia? What to know about spaghetti models