Worcester's preliminary election is over. Here's what we learned

WORCESTER — After Tuesday's preliminary elections narrowed down five races to two candidates each, the races are largely set going into the last two months before the Nov. 7. general election.

Two-person races have now been set in every City Council district and two School Committee districts and campaigns are expected to ramp up in the final months.

What happened Tuesday?

Voters in City Council Districts 1, 2,4 and 5 and School Committee District E had their first chance to weigh in on the field of candidates.

In District 1, Jennifer "Jenny" Pacillo came out on top with 1,545 votes, or 56.5% of the votes, in the unofficial tally, and her nearest opponent David Peterson picked up 834, or 30.53%. Larry Shetler was eliminated. Incumbent Sean Rose is not running for reelection

In District 2, incumbent Candy Mero-Carlson had the most votes with 720 votes, or 43.9%, according to the unofficial tally. Challenger Robert Bilotta put on a strong showing with 584 votes, or 35.6%, in a three-way race where former District 2 City Councilor Philip Palmieri was eliminated.

In District 4, Luis Ojeda had the most votes in a five-way race with 332 votes in the unofficial tally, or 38.8%. Katia Norford came in second with 189 votes, or 22.1%. Theodore Kostas, Maria Montano and Maureen Schwab were eliminated in the race to succeed Sarai Rivera.

District 5 City Councilor Etel Haxhiaj was the highest vote getter of the night with 1,665 votes according to the unofficial tally, or 54.4%. Challenger Jose Rivera also received over 1,000 votes: 1,189 votes, or 38.9% of the total. Edson Montero was eliminated.

District E was the closest race of the night with Nelly Medina receiving 474 votes according to the unofficial tally, or 38.4%. Medina just edged out Kathleen Roy by 29 votes. Roy received 445 votes, or 36% of the vote. John Patrick Reed was eliminated.

More: Road to November: Worcester political experts view races for City Council, schools

Who didn't have a preliminary?

The following at-large council candidates advanced with no preliminary: incumbents Mayor Joseph M. Petty, Khrystian King, Kathleen Toomey, Thu Nguyen, Morris Bergman and Donna Colorio, as well as Domenica Perrone, Maydeé Morales and Johanna Hampton-Dance.

For School Committee, four district seats only have one candidate: current School Committee members Molly McCullough and Jermaine Johnson for Districts A and F, respectively; Vanessa Alvarez for District B and Alex Guardiola for District D.

Former School Committee member Dianna Biancheria is challenging current member Jermoh Kamara for the District C seat.

Current members Tracy O'Connell Novick, Laura Clancey and Susan Coghlin Mailman are running to fill the two at-large seats, as is former Worcester Public Schools Superintendent Maureen Binienda.

How was turnout?

In total, 8,703 ballots were cast in the preliminary vote, according to unofficial tallies. The number includes Election Day and early votes. Most of the city had at least one race on the ballot and a total of 96,047 eligible voters could have cast ballots for the preliminary.

Turnout was about 9% for the Tuesday preliminary election. In 2021, where there were only two races on the ballot and 47,950 eligible registered voters, turnout was about 10.4%, or 4,977 votes.

One year with a larger electorate to 2023 was 2019, which had at-large City Council preliminary election with 100,404 eligible voters and turnout was 8.7%, or 8,736 votes.

Ahead of the preliminary, four Worcester politics observers said preliminary turnout was likely to be low.

Former Mayor Joseph O'Brien, who serves as political and legislative director for the North Atlantic States Regional Council of Carpenters, said turnout would likely be depressed on Election Day as was the day after the Labor Day weekend.

While O'Brien said preliminary election turnout will not be a full indicator of candidate strength in November, O'Brien believes the preliminary results can be an early data point of potential strength for incumbents and challengers in district races.

Jordan Berg Powers, a consultant and former executive director of Mass Alliance, said preliminary elections are usually not good determinations of November turnout because the electorate is smaller and wider candidate fields may not drive as much interest as a sharper two-person race.

Marianna Islam, an organizer with the Communities for Just Schools Fund who played a key role in Nguyen's 2021 campaign, said she was the voter number 238 in her District 1 precinct Tuesday, which was not a sign of strong preliminary turnout.

Raymond V. Mariano, a former mayor and Telegram & Gazette Sunday columnist, predicted low turnout this year. In his view, many of the incumbents and challengers have not yet lead with concrete and specific campaign pledges to excite voters and set clear contrasts.

Will turnout get better in November?

Mariano said several incumbents are running more on their general character and their availability to the public than on explicit policies to address issues like housing. The candidates also give "chocolate and vanilla" answers to questions about what they support as elected officials, Mariano said.

"Everybody is in favor of providing affordable housing, everybody is in favor of transparency, everyone is in favor of supporting the public schools," Mariano said. "But there is nothing that sets people apart."

Mariano pointed to the mayor's race, where he has not seen any "pizazz" as the tone-setter for the rest of the races.

"You go to a boxing match, two people are in the ring and all they do is dance and throw punches in the air, never at each other," Mariano said, "You only get so excited, you're never going to want to go back to that fight."

The mayoral field consists of members of the larger at-large City Council field. At-large candidates must decide whether to opt out of the mayoral race.

Four candidates have announced they are running for mayor: Mayor Joseph M. Petty, Councilor-at-Large Khrystian King, Guillermo Creamer Jr. and William Coleman.

The last day to opt out of the mayoral race is Sept. 12.

Mariano also said the School Committee race is "almost nonexistent" in the minds of residents.

While Mariano said district council races generally did not draw large numbers of voters, some may have higher turnout than others.

District 5 could draw interest as Rivera has challenged Haxhiaj on some issues while Districts 1 and 4 will be wide open, Mariano said.

O'Brien said it is the first time in his memory where interest in district races for City Council has been as "vigorous." All the City Council district seats are contested this year and 11 candidates are running for at-large City Council seats.

"I do think there's been a good, strong response from candidates, which is exciting," O'Brien said.

In November, O'Brien said there will be more excitement in both City Council and School Committee races. He predicts turnout will be higher than in previous years.

The former mayor said this election also has the potential for one of the most potentially competitive mayoral races in recent years. O'Brien is personally supporting his friend Mayor Petty.

Districts 1, 2, and 5 could also produce interesting races, O'Brien added.

The School Committee will be the first where the majority of School Committee candidates are running for specific district seats — District A through F — rather than all at-large.

O'Brien said the at-large School Committee race could draw interest with Three current members and a former Worcester Public Schools superintendent in the running.

Berg Powers and Islam, who are on the progressive side of city politics, believe that there is the potential for higher November turnout than previous years as residents want to address persistent issues in the city.

Islam said the candidate field includes more diversity in racial, gender, and sexual orientation and they can bring their lived experiences to government, something that can excite voters who may not normally turn out.

What are the issues?

Berg Powers said housing and rent issues are on the minds of his neighbors and other people he talks to.

"The biggest issues I see are housing, housing, and housing. People just are trying to figure out how does this city continue to be the place that it currently is. People are getting stretched and pushed out," Berg Powers said.

Islam said housing, racial equity and the impact of the city's economic development are at the forefront of this year's election. She believes the city's development has not benefited many corners of the city.

Islam said residents should be aware of other issues in the city: proposed regulations of clinics that advise patients against abortions, understanding the school district's sexual education curriculum, and anti-queer attacks used on LGBTQ candidates such as Nguyen.

"Just having one or two people who hold progressive values is not enough," Islam said. "There actually needs to be more."

O'Brien also pointed to affordable housing and homeownership as major topics this year.

Rent prices have continued their rise in Worcester and the City Council passed inclusionary zoning this year requiring developers to designate a certain number of units in the apartment projects that will have 12 or more units as affordable. Affordable housing advocates and four city councilors supported a more expansive inclusionary zoning policy.

National discussions of public safety and policing have also touched Worcester. Crime statistics were lower in 2022 and the city administration implemented its plan to remove police officers from schools and switch to a school liaison officer model.

However, the decision to remove police officers from schools remains controversial and candidates such as Peterson have said they would support reassessing the policy for officers in school.

The city also implemented its long-awaited police body camera policy and rolled out a pilot crisis response program to pair mental health experts with police officers for certain calls.

Worcester police conduct has also received scrutiny, being the subject of several lawsuits and leading to a Department of Justice investigation of the department for a pattern or practice of discrimination or excessive use of force.

Policing is likely to remain a major issue following the sudden Sept. 1 announcement that Police Chief Steven M. Sargent would be retiring after 37 years with the department and with Deputy Chief Paul B. Saucier serving as interim police chief, effective immediately.

Sargent's announcement came a day after City Manager Eric D. Batista told the T&G he had been unaware of a 2021 investigation that found Sargent had engaged in a “pattern of inappropriate behavior” toward an officer Robert Belsito.

City Council candidates are also used to being asked their position on whether the city should preserve the lowest possible residential taxes or narrowing the dual tax rate between residential and business taxes.

District issues

In District 1, Pacillo and Peterson have discussed development of the Saint-Gobain property in North Worcester.

In District 2, Bilotta has said housing has been overlooked in favor of commercial development. The district includes the heavily developed downtown and Canal District neighborhoods as well as Shrewsbury Street. Mero-Carlson has touted her leadership in bringing park projects to the district and as well as economic development such as Polar Park.

District 4 includes the Main South neighborhood and residents are concerned about the impact of Clark University's plan to redevelop a block into a seven-unit building largely for student housing. The issue touches on fears of gentrification and losing local businesses in a neighborhood with a large immigrant population.

In District 5, Rivera has waged possibly the most aggressive challenge in the city to Haxhiaj. Rivera's campaign has criticized Haxhiaj's commitment to in-district issues, questioning her handling of the temporary shelter at Blessed Sacrament Church's Phelan Center and calling for a public hearing on proposed street calming measures on Mill Street.

Haxhiaj and Rivera have also called for economic development of the former Big D property on Mill Street, with Haxhiaj supporting an upzoning of the property and calling for the area to be designated an Urban Center Housing Tax Increment Financing (TIF) zone. Rivera called for the creation of an urban revitalization plan for the property that included the possibility to seize the property through eminent domain.

What did we learn from the preliminaries?

Pacillo had a strong showing in District 1 and was well ahead of Peterson, by 711 votes. District 1 was one of the districts with the highest turnouts Tuesday.

Pacillo has evidently has a strong base of support and candidates coming out on top of the preliminary election have historically been favored in November, but the most recent District 1 election shows preliminary results are not always destiny.

In 2021, Rose narrowly came in second to police Sgt. Richard Cipro. District 1 was the hardest fought race of the year and Rose was able to rally for a November victory of over 400 votes.

Mero-Carlson and Bilotta had a tighter race with Mero-Carlson having a less-than 200 vote advantage over Bilotta. This follows Mero-Carlson having general election win of over 200 votes in 2021 against Johanna Hampton-Dance.

Mero-Carlson has a significant cash advantage with more than $53,000 in hand at the end of August to Bilotta's $1,861, according to the Office of Campaign and Political Finance.

Haxhiaj improved her preliminary showing compared to 2021, where she received 1,216 votes. District 5 was the other district with relatively higher turnout in the 2023 preliminary.

In 2021, the District 5 preliminary field was divided into four candidates rather than the three in 2021. Second place finisher Gregory Stratman only receiving 570 votes while Stephen Quist received 295 votes and Yenni Desroches received 133.

In comparison, Rivera received 1,189 votes and Montero got 191 in smaller field of candidates. Rivera had a narrower deficit to Haxhiaj than Stratman, 476 to 646 votes.

Stratman narrowed the gap in the 2021 general election, losing to Haxhiaj 2,585 to 2,206.

District 4 had the lowest turnout of the City Council races, with Ojeda only needing 332 votes to come in first. A total of 855 ballots were cast, including two write-in votes.

The District 4 race has received less attention from political observers than other races with candidates not doing too much to draw distinctions. Ojeda and Norford have their work cut out for them in promoting more turnout.

School Committee District E was a tight race, but may be one of the more ideologically divisive ones in November. Medina, the founder of Free Worcester, is a community activist who has received support from city progressives. Roy is the former chair of the Worcester Republican City Committee.

This article originally appeared on Telegram & Gazette: Worcester preliminary election analysis: What comes next?