The World of 2023 - What next?

Each January during my years in Lubbock I conducted a series of programs for various local organizations on “The State of the World,” prognosticating on how I saw the year ahead. Not being there, I will do an abbreviated version in writing which is much riskier by leaving a record, for as the great philosopher Yogi Berra said, “it’s tough to make predictions -- especially about the future.” Here are the issues which I believe will most impact our world this year:

A global recession is a certainty – the only question is how severe, how widespread, and how long? The US will not be spared since that is the only practical way to return inflation to an acceptable rate. Those countries most unable to deal with a recession – the least developed – will suffer most. Expect increased global hunger, migration, civil strife, possible coups, and certain countries unable to repay their debts in the developing world.

The Ukraine War will last at least through next summer, but Putin may not. I expect Putin will not be Russia’s leader next December. Whether he leaves voluntarily because of “ill health,” or is ousted by an insider putsch, his days are numbered. His military venture has been a disaster for Russia and will only worsen. The caveat is the West remaining firm in supporting Ukraine. There are two sand hourglasses side by side: Russia’s capacity to fight, and Western backing for Ukraine. When one runs out of sand, the other wins. But Putin’s replacement may be worse – and after all, Russia is Russia no matter who leads it.

China may have reached the apex of its power. From here its population ages and shrinks, and its economy may never regain the heady growth of past decades. President Xi, with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), has mismanaged COVID to a disastrous degree, and the Chinese people are angry. But there is a great danger for the world – as Xi, sensing that this may be the best chance to seize Taiwan because of American distraction over Ukraine, might try doing it to rally the nation. But I don’t think so – China takes the very long view on its global ambitions. I believe this year Xi will put the glove back on the iron fist and show a much mellower face to the West while focusing on resolving his domestic economic and political problems. But we should not forget that the CCP’s plans for a new world order “with Chinese characters” remain a prime objective.

The Middle East is set to experience renewed turbulence after a relatively stable several years which saw Israel expanding relations with Arab countries, resulting from President Trump’s Abraham Accords initiative. With the recent inauguration of the most right-wing, anti-Palestinian Israeli Government ever, expect an upsurge of violence in the West Bank, from Hamas-controlled Gaza, and potential terrorist incidents in Israel proper - perhaps to the level of previous “Intifadas.” Further instability could also come from Iran – where the Ayatollahs have dithered over how to respond to ongoing demonstrations from Iranian youth fed-up with the venal theocracy. I fear the leaders will crack down hard and seek unity by appealing to Iranian nationalism by creating an international crisis – which could draw in Israel and even the US.

Let’s not forget about potential “Black Swans” of which there are an abundance this year. China’s disastrous COVID mismanagement could unleash a new variant immune to current vaccines which would rapidly spread around the world and take us back to 2020. North Korea’s ambitious nuclear development and rocket testing could lead to a crisis with Japan and/or South Korea, and ultimately draw in America. And Putin, desperate to avoid a Ukraine disaster, could resort to tactical nukes or arrange a military “accident” impacting a NATO neighbor. All of these possibilities would have serious ramifications for the US.

But with all the potential doom and gloom, it’s important to remember two bits of wisdom:

“In times like these, it helps to recall that there have always been times like these.” (Paul Harvey)

“If the world were perfect; it wouldn’t be.” (Yogi Berra)

Ambassador Tibor Nagy was most recently Assistant Secretary of State for Africa after serving as Texas Tech’s Vice Provost for International Affairs and a 30-year career as a US Diplomat. Follow him on Twitter @TiborPNagyJr

This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Tibor Nagy The World of 2023 - What next?