WORLD CUP TALK: England fail again to change ‘fine margins’ narrative

SYMPATHETIC England pundits appear to be working on commission, a bonus for every additional mention of “fine margins”. It’s all fine margins.

Harry Kane’s penalty miss against France. Fine margins. Harry Maguire clipping the post. Fine Margins. Hugo Lloris’ string of terrific saves. Fine margins. England against France in 2022, England against Italy in 2021, England against Croatia in 2018, fine margins, fine margins, fine margins.

Say it often enough, like a mantra from a pseudo-shaman, and the truth will out. The Three Lions were just missing a little luck, the rub of the green and the law of averages. Spout every cliché in every TV studio until everyone falls in line with the established narrative.

Gareth Southgate’s England did not fail. The fine margins failed Gareth Southgate’s England.

But tournament football usually occupies the fine margins. In fact, the knockout stages practically live there, setting up camp inside a huge marquee with “FINE MARGINS” emblazoned across the roof in neon letters.

Look at Morocco. Walid Regragui’s warriors needed the finest of margins to get past perennial dark houses Belgium. The Africans also called upon fine margins to hold Croatia. Fine margins also came in handy against Spain and now Portugal in the quarter-finals.

In fact, the first African nation to reach the final four have feasted at the fine margins buffet, denying others a look-in, particularly the malnourished Three Lions.

As the Moroccans gorged on their good fortune, they stopped every opposition player from scoring against them – in eight and a half hours of football. They have conceded just one goal – an own goal – against Canada, presumably when they gave those fine margins the night off.

Coincidences can happen, but defeating Belgium, Canada, Spain and Portugal is not happenstance. It’s a pattern, a deliberate strategy, an act of will. Morocco 2022 are not Greece 2004, relying on defensive walls and rare set-pieces to both progress against elite opposition and cure insomnia. They forage. They attack.

They pass quickly and wriggle through the tiniest spaces, often led by the extraordinary right-back Achraf Hakimi. Their narrative against Portugal was not one of fine margins, but one of giddy, forward-thinking momentum. In the final minutes, there was as much chance of Morocco scoring a second as there was of their opponents snatching an equaliser.

It was a risky endeavour – the Africans managed just 27 per cent possession – but every attacking opportunity was pounced upon, conjuring just as many shots on target as Portugal (three). There’s nothing lucky about Morocco being in the semi-finals.

But England must be unlucky. That’s the established narrative, a well-rehearsed routine after 56 years of hurt. Fine margins cannot apply in Morocco’s triumph, but they must be blindly followed in England’s defeat. They just lost to a better side, again, even though the North Africans have beaten better sides three times in this tournament.

No, the same yardstick currently being waved around to praise the mighty Moroccans must be similarly applied to England’s humbled.

Another Groundhog Day of tears, fears, fine margins

Coincidences can happen, but losing to Croatia, Italy and now France in the knockout stages is not happenstance. It’s a pattern, a cagey strategy, an act of will. England 2022 are not England 1966, relying on defensive walls and a roaming playmaker (Bobby Charlton) to progress to an open-top bus parade. They probe. Safely. They attack. Sporadically.

Declan Rice and Jordan Henderson were close to flawless in possession, recycling the ball, finding each other, and then finding each other again. This was keep-ball for grown-ups, against the world champions no less, restricting France to just 43 per cent possession.

But Morocco (and Japan) showed the futility of their opponents’ possession with no end product, a case of too much back-seat fumbling and no climax. And England didn’t have Antoine Griezmann.

Or maybe they did, in Phil Foden, or Jack Grealish, or even the unused James Maddison, names that will dominate online forums in the coming days as Mr Anonymous from Angry Town insists that Southgate never let the boys play, never let them off the leash and never went big up top.

And football writers must retaliate with pithy columns, essentially saying, yeah, the cerebral, erudite Southgate failed because he didn’t pick Grealish from the first minute to lump long balls to Kane. Yeah, that's right. That’s why England lost. It was those fine margins. Remember? Do keep up.

But this familiar roundabout of tired argument and counter-argument is perhaps the point. After three tournaments, we wake to another Groundhog Day of tears, fears and fine margins as England fall again to elite opposition in the knockout stages. Coincidences are for conspiracy theorists. In reality, Griezmann’s liberation was the difference. In 2018, it was Luka Modric for Croatia. Who does England have?

We know what England have. Youth. Talent. Speed. Likeability. They work selflessly for Southgate’s cause, devoted to a manager many have known since turning out in the junior ranks. They have reached a semi-final, a final and a quarter-final under his steady stewardship. They were a penalty kick away from taking the world champions to extra time. But only one footballer was trusted to play where he pleased.

And he was French.

Griezmann floated between positions and spaces, finding the time and opportunity to plant the pass of the game onto Olivier Giroud’s head. After three tournaments, who does this job for England? Who is permitted to do this job for England?

Jude Bellingham may be the most accomplished 19-year-old midfielder to wear a Three Lions jersey. Against France, he was tasked with babysitting Rice and Henderson against a two-man midfield. So of course, England dominated possession. But what did they do with it? Where was their Griezmann?

These are not fine margins, but a tactical choice that has transformed the Three Lions from international punchlines to regular participants in the knockout stages, where they eventually faced Griezmann’s France or Modric’s Croatia and the limits of that tactical choice were tested (and defeated).

Maybe that is the limit. Maybe Southgate’s men are already touching the ceilings of their collective talents. Maybe this is the only way to navigate a respectful route through to the latter stages of major tournaments.

But the French and the astonishing Moroccans appear to feel a little differently. And their footballers are not coming home.

Neil Humphreys is an award-winning football writer and a best-selling author, who has covered the English Premier League since 2000 and has written 26 books.

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