In June, XRP slumped by 21.15% to $0.3321. The slide came off the back of a 28.04% tumble in May.
Crypto market forces sent XRP into the deep red for a third consecutive month, with a lack of progress in the SEC v Ripple case also testing support.
Technical indicators are bearish, with XRP sitting below the 50-day EMA.
In June, XRP slid by 21.15%. Following a 28.04% tumble in May, XRP ended the month at $0.3321.
A bearish start to the month saw XRP slide from a June 1 high of $0.4260 to a June 18 and a current-year low of $0.2868.
The extended sell-off saw XRP come within range of the month’s First Major Support Level at $0.2848.
Finding support in the second half of the month, XRP revisited $0.38 levels before sliding back to the end month at $0.3321.
Crypto headwinds, including investor sentiment toward Fed monetary policy, fears of a US recession, and a gradual shift to a more regulated crypto market weighed.
A lack of progress toward a conclusion of the SEC v Ripple case also tested XRP support in June, though hopes of a favorable outcome for Ripple limited the downward pressure.
The influence of the current market headwinds aligned with those of the US equities markets, leaving XRP to track the NASDAQ 100 through much of the month.
For June, the NASDAQ 100 fell by 7.89%, relatively modest compared to the XRP slide.
Throughout the month, news updates from the SEC v Ripple case drew interest, despite the lack of progress toward a conclusion.
Court Ruling on Hinman Speech Docs Key for XRP
In recent weeks, the SEC and Ripple filed motions and letters of opposition to filings in relation to expert testimony and amici. However, the market focus remained on William Hinman.
For XRP, the pending court ruling on the SEC motion to shield William Hinman’s 2018 speech-related documents under attorney-client privilege could turn the SEC case on its head.
The markets have been awaiting a court ruling since June 16, and a decision could come at any time.
While the Hinman ruling will be the key, crypto headwinds will also influence. Fed monetary policy, US economic indicators, and shifts in the crypto regulatory landscape will need consideration.
XRP July Price Action
At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.22% to $0.3124, leaving XRP down 5.93% for the current month.
A choppy start to July saw XRP rise to a high of $0.3353 before sliding to a low of $0.3088.
XRP left the monthly Major Support and Resistance Levels untested.
In July, an XRP move through the $0.3480 pivot would bring the First Major Resistance Level at $0.4094 into play.
A shift in market sentiment to support a breakout from $0.35 levels.
In the case of an extended crypto rally, XRP could test the Second Major Resistance Level at $0.4874 and resistance at $0.50. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $0.6268.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level at $0.2708 in play.
XRP should avoid sub-$0.25 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.2094, barring another extended sell-off. The Third Major Support Level sits at $0.0695.
However, any court ruling on the William Hinman documents would remove the influence of the Major Support and Resistance Levels.
A ruling in favor of Ripple would support a return to $0.60 levels, with an eye on the February 9 current-year high of $0.9154.
By contrast, a ruling in favor of the SEC would bring the December 2020 low of $0.1710 into play before any recovery begins.
The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) send a bearish signal. At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.3318. Today, the 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, price negative.
A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a move through the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.3645, to target R2.
However, the July 1 pullback from the 50-day EMA and a failed bullish cross will leave XRP under pressure ahead of any ruling.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire