Xs and Os: Oregon takes on North Carolina in Holiday Bowl

Oregon fans are girding themselves for Wednesday's Holiday Bowl football game with North Carolina, a matchup that would normally generate a great deal of excitement, but lesser now because until the 5 p.m. game time, you won’t know exactly how many, and which, players are going to show up.

Welcome to the world of college football in a new era punctuated by NIL, the Transfer Portal, and other rights now claimed by players long denied by a traditional structure administered by the NCAA.

The good news is both teams have their starting quarterbacks agreeing to suit up and play; both are top-quality players with pro potential.

The Tar Heels have the Atlantic Coast Conference’s Offensive Player of the Year, Drake Maye, who led his team to the conference’s championship game and a 9-4 record. Maye is the third-best passer in the country, completing 298-of-440 pass attempts (68%) for 3,847 yards and 35 touchdowns, which is astounding, but he also was North Carolina’s leading rusher with 629 yards and 6 scores.

Oregon coach Dan Lanning counters with Bo Nix, ranked 16^th in the country, completing 271-of-379 attempts (72%) for 3,388 yards and 27 touchdowns. Nix rushed for 504 yards and is poison in the red zone, the top quarterback in the country with 14 touchdowns.

North Carolina’s coach Mack Brown has a two-game losing streak to the Ducks going back to his previous stint as Texas’ head coach, once in the Alamo Bowl and the other in San Diego’s Holiday Bowl.

When Brown looks at his lineup card, there are more than 20 "opt outs," players who have decided for selfish reasons to pass up the reward of a bowl game experience with teammates for the purpose of preparing for the NFL draft or getting out of town to a new university.

Such is the current landscape of college football: careening out of control, eyes fixed on dollar signs.

Lanning was disappointed with Oregon’s late-season malaise resulting in losses in two of the last three games. Both defeats came as a result of inexcusable game management mistakes, the likes of which Oregon fans had thought disappeared when former head man Mario Cristobal departed for Miami.

It will take a lot for Lanning to work out of this hole, but he’s had some experience now as a first-year head coach with the Ducks’ impressive, well-coached turnaround after being humiliated by Georgia in his first game of the season.

He pointed to this bowl game preparation being a time “to hit the reset button, attend to weaknesses; almost like an extra spring ball.”

The first area to improve should be special teams. At the end of the season, the Ducks were 107^th nationally in kick returns, 97^th in punt returns and worse in kick return defense (117^th) and punt coverage (116^th).

Hustle, getting under control and good blocking and tackling fundamentals would solve problems in these areas. It’s a sad state of affairs when Lanning admitted he had more faith in attempting a fourth-down gamble against Oregon State than the ability of his punt team to execute a punt. Deciding on a punter who can handle the snap and kick more than 40 yards from scrimmage would be a start.

Defense, a specialty for Lanning as a national champion at Georgia last year, could use some juice as well: The Ducks were 125^th in the country in sacks, but the Tar Heels were no better, ranking 128^th, which sets up a classic aerial battle between two great quarterbacks who may not have to worry about a ferocious pass rush.

Brown must also be concerned about losing the services of several key members of his secondary as the ‘Heels face Nix, who is a deadly accurate passer.

Lanning will be missing his best defender, Noah Sewell, who opted out of the game in preparation for something more important, the NFL draft. Sewell, a pre-season All-American candidate, did not have a great season and ironically, it might have helped Sewell to play in the game and give scouts reasons to think he has pro potential.

As always, Lanning’s defensive goal is to get three more turnovers than the Ducks commit on offense, a strength nationally (9^th), largely based on the consistent discipline of ball carriers who only lost three fumbles and Nix allowing only six interceptions of 379 pass attempts.

Oregon’s touted offensive line was the best in the land in pass protection, allowing only four sacks. The Ducks averaged 39 points per game which is also a good place to start against a defense missing several key players.

Brown also lost the services of an All-American receiver who gained more than 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns, making it easier on Lanning losing NFL-bound cornerback Christian Gonzalez from this contest.

Oregon coaches should also stress discipline in avoiding penalties, a sore spot throughout the season, ranking 104^th in the nation — the larger the number, the bigger the problem.

The crucial need for improvement goes beyond the players, it’s also got to happen with the coaching staff. Lanning said after the Washington game that he had made a couple of strategic mistakes that he would “like to have done differently … I don’t want to lose to Washington twice,” referring to making the same mistakes again, in subsequent games.

But he did against OSU, going for a first-half decision to attempt a fourth-and-three conversion in chip-shot distance for the most dependable field goal kicker in the Pac-12.

What made it even worse was a questionable play selection having a wide receiver running sideways on a sweep out of a thin formation that depended on a key line of scrimmage block by a small wide receiver against a big Beaver defender. It is a mystery that more reliable running backs averaging six yards per carry who were better bets to gain the yardage out of a suitable formation were overlooked.

As it was, three points then would have allowed another field goal for the win instead of having to score a touchdown on the Ducks’ final drive.

The touchdown never happened, again, because of poor play selection and not utilizing key players who were successful all season in the red zone. After three straight line plunges by a backup running back into the teeth of the Oregon State defense, Nix, hobbled by an injured ankle, was sent running to his right to throw a mis-timed pick play to a wide receiver surrounded by two defenders.

The question for the offensive coordinator (now gone to another job) would be “where were all the innovative red zone plays from games past?” There were many creative run and pass plays out of power formations that made the Ducks’ offense formidable in the red zone; ignored or forgotten when the pressure mounted.

Now, Lanning can muse on opportunities to come, both against North Carolina and in games in the future. He ended up losing to Washington twice, the second one against the Beavers. Now, the goal is to not lose to Oregon State twice. My wish is that John Madden, the NFL Hall-of-Fame coach, was still alive and could share his perspective on when to “go for it.”

Madden’s answer would be “when the game depends on it.”

You don’t know that in the first half, and if you’re up against a great defense, get points every time you get in the red zone. Three points is not a loss for the offense. A field goal opens up possibilities you may need later in the game.

Going for it and not making it is a win for the defense, a loss for the offense and when you’re on the road, the fans get louder. If you were in Corvallis, you would have heard it for yourself, and it mattered.

Ken Woody will conduct a free coaching clinic at 6 p.m. Dec. 29 at the 6^th Street Grill. Plays from Oregon’s Holiday Bowl game will be analyzed, all to learn about football and understand why the Ducks win or lose. Woody coached college football for 18 years as an assistant at Oregon, Washington, Utah State and Washington State and as a head coach at Whitman College and Washington University-St. Louis.

This article originally appeared on Register-Guard: Xs and Os: Oregon takes on North Carolina in Holiday Bowl