Yarmuth’s retirement adds to ‘complete and utter ... chaos’ in Louisville politics next year
If you enjoy politics and live in one of the other 119 counties, you owe the people of Jefferson County your appreciation for the entertainment coming your way next year. Thanks to a historic confluence of circumstances there is potential for complete and utter electoral chaos in Jefferson County in 2022.
Even before 14-year incumbent U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth announced his retirement this week, next year’s ballot in Jefferson County was shaping up to be oddest, and longest, in decades.
After 12 years in office, Mayor Greg Fisher is term limited. Amid a backdrop of racial tension and rising murder rates, the city is on edge and wants change and, with five Democrats already declared, there’s the potential for a surprise in the primary. An upset win by a far-left progressive would put moderate and independent voters in play and give the Republican nominee a puncher’s chance.
While not as rare as an open Mayoral election, it’s not every year a Louisville Democrat runs for US Senate (the last was Jack Conway in 2010). Former State Representative Charles Booker will take on the uphill task of challenging Senator Rand Paul. Booker will need every vote he can find in the county if he has a shot to keep it close, much less win.
Booker’s former colleagues in the General Assembly will also be on the ballot next year. As always, Democrats will have high (false?) hopes of flipping Jefferson County seats and there are already two open seat House races (one R and one D held) to add to the madness.
Don’t forget the local offices! There’s three open Metro Council seats on the ballot, with the likelihood of more to come, not to mention all the county level offices in play.
As if that wasn’t enough, thanks to a quirk in the length of the judicial terms, for the first time in years, every single judicial seat in Jefferson County will be up for grabs in the same cycle. This comes at a time when Republicans are beginning to look towards about trying to recruit and elect more conservative jurists.
As for the now-open Congressional seat, State Rep. Attica Scott entered the race earlier this year, State Senate Minority Leader Morgan McGarvey declared this week, and names such as Aaron Yarmuth and Rep. Josie Raymond are mentioned as potential Democratic candidates. And, while we don’t know any candidates yet, unlike the mayoral election, Republicans do have a history of holding this seat, albeit with slightly different lines.
Oh yeah; I forgot to mention, it’s also a redistricting year! The General Assembly appears unlikely to carve up Yarmuth’s former seat, but it is possible small tweaks make the seat more competitive, such as returning the Eastern portion of Jefferson County to the district, similar to the map Anne Northup won with.
However, in one final bit of chaos, unless Governor Andy Beshear calls a special session this fall, the legislature will have to wait until January to draw new maps. Not only could this possibly push back the filing deadline, there’s a chance candidates declaring for offices today won’t even live in that district come filing day.
The end result is the political equivalent of a giant monkey knife fight, mostly centered on the Democratic primaries. And that should worry Democrats. The ballot will be long, voters, donors and activists in the county will be exhausted. That’s a lot of mouths to feed with a finite pool of resources while Republicans will have smaller primaries and have other power bases in the State to draw upon for financial and volunteer support. If Republicans are thoughtful about their nominations, there’s the potential for historic gains in Louisville.
While I’m sending condolences to my Louisville friends for what’s about to assault to their doorsteps, mailboxes, TVs, radios, and web browsers, as a political observer, I’m excited to see how it all unfolds.
Tres Watson is the former spokesman for the Republican Party of Kentucky, founder of Capitol Reins PR and the host of the Kentucky Politics Weekly Podcast.
