Yes, Trump can win again, even with another indictment. It’s even easier than 2016 | Opinion

The math of the 2024 election still seems simple.

About 90%-95% of Republicans will eagerly vote for Donald Trump, more if he’s in jail.

But about 5%-10% absolutely will not, no matter what.

Trump can’t win without that 5%-10%, even against a lackluster Democratic ticket.

But this election might not be that simple, even with Trump facing four criminal cases, the latest unveiled Monday night in Georgia.

“I think he [Trump] could win,” 41-year TCU professor Jim Riddlesperger wrote Tuesday by email.

The question is whether Democrats are as intense as Republicans.

Right now, about 20% want some Democrat other than Joe Biden, mostly the enticing but deceptive brand-name of Robert Kennedy Jr.

The Electoral College favors Trump more now than in 2016, Riddlesperger wrote. And Trump was 38,000 votes in a few states from genuinely winning re-election in 2020.

University of North Texas professor Kimi King predicted that if the 2024 election is a Biden-Trump matchup, more voters “will just become disgusted and not vote.”

Moderate suburban Republicans will hold the key in a close race and “the Democrats are not exactly helping their cause these days,” King wrote.

Oft-quoted Southern Methodist University professor Cal Jillson, a national commentator on presidential politics, wrote that a rerun of the 2020 Biden victory is likely.

Here’s where voter habits come in. When there’s not an inspiring candidate, elections wind up being all about voting against someone, not for someone. The 2016 election was about voting against Democrat Hillary Clinton. The 2020 election was about voting against Trump. Same for 2024.

“Trump’s legal problems have not bothered him much and may not in the primaries, but will definitely hurt him in the general election, probably most visibly in the nation’s suburbs,” Jillson wrote.

This is why recent Republican campaigns have focused on tangential complaints about public schools and fear of urban crime.

“Biden’s key weaknesses involve doubts about his age and about his ability to hold support among Black and Hispanic men,” Jillson wrote.

“In the end, I think Trump will lose more of his base than Biden will of his, though I do think we will see a close election. Buckle up.”

Weatherford College professor Darrell Castillo, a Republican veteran of the Ronald Reagan White House, wrote that the election revolves around whether enough Democrats have “Biden fatigue.”

I think we already have 2024 fatigue.

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