'Yet another warning': Humans can curb global warming's worst impacts, but window is narrow
The amount of carbon dioxide that humans can still emit to keep global warming under a key threshold may be exhausted within the next 5 years or so, says a new study published Monday.
Specifically, without rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, the world has a 50% chance of locking in 1.5 degrees of warming before 2030.
“We’re not doing nearly enough to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius," said study lead author Robin Lamboll of the Imperial College of London. "The lack of progress on emissions reduction means that we can be ever more certain that the window for keeping warming to safe levels is rapidly closing."
According to the study authors, this is the most up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of the global carbon budget. The study was published in the peer-reviewed British journal Nature Climate Change.
What is the carbon budget?
The carbon budget is a calculation of how much carbon dioxide we can still release into the atmosphere without raising temperatures to a dangerous level. Just like your household budget, if you exceed your target figure, you go bust.
Scientists agree the world needs to hold down the global increase in average temperatures to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels. If temperatures go over that, especially over 2 degrees Celsius, scientists believe the global warming effects we're already seeing will become devastating.
The researchers warn that if carbon dioxide emissions remain at 2022 levels of about 40 billion metric tons per year, the carbon budget will be exhausted by around 2029, committing the world to warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
Study co-author Joeri Rogelj, Imperial College London, said: “This carbon budget update is both expected and fully consistent with the latest UN Climate Report.
“That report from 2021 already highlighted that there was a one-in-three chance that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 degrees could be as small as our study now reports."
Catastrophe risk increases
Beyond the temperature increase, the risks of catastrophes increase, as the world will likely lose most of its coral reefs, a key ice sheet could kick into irreversible melt, and water shortages, heat waves and death from extreme weather dramatically increase, according to an earlier United Nations scientific report.
“Every fraction of a degree of warming will make life harder for people and ecosystems," said Lamboll. "This study is yet another warning from the scientific community. Now it is up to governments to act.”
Contributing: Elizabeth Weise; The Associated Press
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Global warming's dire impacts can be curbed by humans. We have 5 years
