New York Democrats Are Publicly Furious About a New Congressional Map. They’re Secretly Thrilled.

Last week, Democrats in New York scored one big victory on their path toward retaking a House majority with the triumph of Rep. Tom Suozzi in the state’s 3^rd District, flipping it from Republican control. Then, they scored what should become an even bigger win: The state’s Independent Redistricting Commission rolled out its latest attempt to satisfactorily redraw the state’s congressional lines, which went over like a lead balloon.

State Sen. James Skoufis put it succinctly: “These maps are a disgrace and ought to be rejected by the Legislature.”

Don’t be misled by such ire: Democrats are actually happy about this. If the IRC’s maps are voted down, New York’s Democrat-controlled Legislature will take over redistricting duty from the nonpartisan body, a political triumph national Democrats have been salivating over for years. Redrawn maps could easily aid Democrats in taking back four Republican-held congressional districts, which could be enough to decide control of the House all on its own.

“The IRC map breaks apart six additional counties in New York state, including one that appears gratuitously designed to benefit an incumbent in the 19^th congressional district. That would be a clear violation of the New York state constitution,” said Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries in a statement released by his office, suggesting that he is also cheering for the maps to get redrawn by the Legislature. “There is reason to be concerned with the failure of the IRC to address many of the flaws in the current map drawn by an unelected, out-of-town special master in 2022.”

Redistricting has been a battle royal in New York, a decadelong failure that began with an Andrew Cuomo–led attempt to permanently end political gerrymandering and culminated in Republicans flipping four congressional seats in 2022. That was thanks in part to districts drawn by an out-of-state “special master” that helped Republicans put together a stunning overperformance in New York and basically nowhere else in the country.

The road back from that debacle has been winding and treacherous. Democrats had to first regain control of New York’s highest court—which should have been straightforward enough but proved to be a heated internecine battle of its own. When that liberal majority was finally established, it soon voted to throw out the lines used for that 2022 race and instructed the IRC to try again.

The IRC’s newest attempt—which looks quite a lot like the old attempt, but with a little added incumbent protection—was always likely to be voted down by the Democrat-controlled Legislature. But its official disposal is a crucial step in a state where nothing Democrat-related can be taken for granted. If the IRC’s attempt is indeed cast aside, the Legislature itself would take over responsibility for map-drawing.

From there, the task would look different: Democrats would have to put together a map that does not so egregiously redistrict the state to its own political advantage that even the newly liberal court would take offense.

The stakes of finally getting this right are huge. National Democrats are relying on state Dems to come through with a more favorable map, as they have identified five congressional districts in the state as winnable, red-to-blue flips for 2024. (Four remain after Suozzi’s win, which now becomes a critical hold in November.) Jeffries, who is from New York, has made no secret of the fact that the road to a House majority in 2025 features many stops in his home state.

The national party has committed tens of millions of dollars to boosting those Democratic campaigns, but it’s expecting an assist of some sort from the Legislature here. In some sense, it’s the least New York Democrats can do, because the national party certainly cannot count on the oft-criticized, barely-there state party to pick up the slack or meaningfully aid in this campaign. This was clearly on display in the special election last week, where national Democratic groups poured in more than $10 million, congressional Democrats and local grassroots organizations pounded the pavement, and the state and Nassau County party … were just happy to be there.

So far, it has all gone according to plan. But timing is as much a concern as execution. The Legislature does not reconvene until Feb. 26. Even if the votes are there to quickly dash the IRC’s maps, Democrats will be up against the clock to submit a workable alternative, which will promptly trigger a lawsuit and will have to be upheld by the Court of Appeals, the state’s highest judicial body.

This process dragged on in 2022, when the district lines were not functionally unveiled until mere weeks before New York’s scheduled primaries, delaying the vote from June to August to accommodate the last-second chaos. The result was low-turnout disorder that presaged November’s debacle. No doubt Democrats would like to avoid a repeat of that.

All will be forgiven and forgotten if the Legislature votes quickly to dash the IRC proposal and submit an alternative. Despite his fairly measured statement, Jeffries is likely delighted with the outcome. He’s effectively taken over New York as his political ward, and righting the ship will be among his greatest personal achievements as the Democrats’ leader in the House. His chance at becoming speaker depends on it.