New York gubernatorial candidates Hochul, Zeldin trade claims that enthusiasm has shifted to their side

After Rep. Lee Zeldin crowed Wednesday that his Republican bid to topple Gov. Hochul has rattled local Democratic officials, the New York governor asserted that her campaign was surging through the finish line with six days until Election Day.

In a news conference at his Manhattan campaign headquarters, Zeldin suggested that he has captured New York City support at a level unseen for a Republican in memory and that Hochul has “alienated” Democratic voters by failing to address crime.

“There are Democrats who are shocked to see the massive enthusiasm gap,” said Zeldin, 42, a Trump-allied Long Island lawmaker who has staged a surprisingly competitive campaign. “There are Democrats who are shocked to see just how often I am there in their districts.”

Zeldin, whose campaign has been singularly focused on unwinding criminal justice reforms, said he has made major inroads with Jewish, Asian and Black voters. He has pledged to declare a crime emergency to suspend bail reforms.

Democratic officials sought to counter the notion of an enthusiasm gap, detailing early voting data they suggest shows rank-and-file Democratic voters are fired up and ready to resist the local Red Wave sought by New York Republicans.

Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1 statewide, and Zeldin would seemingly need depressed Democratic turnout — and an outpouring of support from Republicans and independents — to pull a stunning upset next Tuesday.

“I think he hasn’t been to the places I’ve been,” Hochul, 64, told reporters at a Wednesday rally in Mount Vernon. “There’s a lot of energy out here. Not just Democrats. I’m hearing from Republican women who are terrified to have anyone in the governor’s seat who does not support the right to an abortion.”

Zeldin has a history of anti-abortion and anti-gun control positions. He is working to overcome policy differences he has with most New York voters by presenting himself as the solution to climbing crime rates.

Hochul rose to her post after former Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned in disgrace last year. She has stressed her anti-gun and pro-job accomplishments in her 14 months in office, and has asserted New Yorkers’ abortion rights would come under threat if Zeldin wins, a claim he disputes.

“Momentum is 100% on our side,” Hochul said Wednesday. “I feel very confident.”

Most public opinion polls have shown Hochul holding a clear but narrow lead over Zeldin. A FiveThirtyEight average of surveys had her lead at 7 percentage points on Wednesday; an average from RealClearPolitics put her lead at 5 points.

The state Democratic Party said 62% of mail-in ballot returns had come from Democrats, and 23% had come from Republicans.

“This concept that voter enthusiasm is much greater on the Republican side, we’re not seeing that,” Jay Jacobs, the state Democratic Party chairman, said in a call with reporters. “Democratic enthusiasm, in spite of what you’ve heard, is strong.”

Beginning in 2006, Democrats have won four straight New York governor’s races by double digits. Hochul, a Buffalo Democrat, is working to overcome inflation headwinds hurting her party nationwide.

If she wins, she would become the first upstate politician elected New York’s governor in decades and the first woman ever to achieve the feat.

Through Tuesday, 171,777 voters cast ballots at early voting stations in Democrat-rich New York City, according to the city Board of Elections — about 38% of the total reported in the same period in the 2020 general election.

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee in last year’s New York City mayoral race, said high turnout in the five boroughs could bury Zeldin. But Sliwa, who patrols the city as the head of the Guardian Angels, added he does not see signs of enthusiasm in Democratic strongholds.

“People come up to me all the time and talk politics. They’re not saying they’re going to vote for Zeldin,” Sliwa said by phone. “Nobody’s saying that in the Black and West Indian Caribbean neighborhoods. But they’re not talking Hochul either.”