Young people leaving Hampton Roads as job growth lags behind peers, according to a new report

Trevor Metcalfe, The Virginian-Pilot
·3 min read
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Young workers are leaving Hampton Roads for greener pastures, a troubling sign for a region looking to improve its economy and move past the pandemic, according to a new report by Old Dominion University economists.

The rate of population growth in Hampton Roads and Virginia lags behind other locations, which could signal a lack of economic opportunities, according to the recently published State of the Commonwealth report from the ODU Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy.

“For large, urban areas, population growth is closely aligned with economic
opportunities and the cost of living,” the report says. “Slower job growth may induce residents to seek economic fortunes elsewhere.”

The report examines how the Virginia population has shifted among the state’s seven Go Virginia regions — a way of grouping the state into economic development zones first created in 2015 as part of the Go Virginia program.

Region 5, which includes Hampton Roads and the Eastern Shore, has lost its share of the Virginia population, declining from 23.6% in 1990 to 20.2% in 2022.

“Region 5’s population has grown slower than the state average each of the last three decades and has essentially observed zero population growth this decade,” the report says.

Meanwhile, Region 7, which includes Northern Virginia, has expanded its share of the state population, increasing from 23.7% in 1990 to 29.3% in 2022.

Young people ages 20-34 have left the region for jobs elsewhere, causing the population growth to stagnate. According to the report, the number of people in that age group declined around a half of a percent, from 394,728 in 2020 to 391,168 in 2022.

Virginia’s population grew just 0.3% from 2020 to 2022, according to the report. Neighbor North Carolina’s population grew 1.2% during the same time period.

Like the rest of the state, Hampton Roads’ population grew 0.3% over those same years, according to Census Bureau estimates. For comparison, Raleigh, North Carolina, metro area’s population grew about 4.7% during that time period.

The number of nonfarm jobs in Hampton Roads increased just 0.7% from October 2022 to 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, much less than comparable metro areas like Raleigh (3.7%), Jacksonville, Florida (4%), and Charlotte, North Carolina (2.4%).

Still, the report predicts a 2% increase in real gross domestic product for Virginia in 2024, if inflation continues to moderate and other economic factors stay in place.

“The Virginia economy should grow in 2024, but work remains to be done to match the economic performance of our peers,” said ODU economist and lead report author Bob McNab in a news release.

McNab offered several solutions to bring in more jobs and new residents to the state, including:

  • Making sure college graduates are trained for the job needs of employers.

  • Investing in mental health services, childcare and health insurance to grow labor force participation.

  • Addressing the opioid crisis and the lingering effects of the pandemic on student learning.

  • Funding infrastructure projects that promote growth across the state.

Trevor Metcalfe, 757-222-5345, trevor.metcalfe@pilotonline.com