You're Scared About the New Abortion Laws. But What Comes Next?
If you've even peeked at the news this month, you've probably seen that abortion rights are under attack. States have passed extreme laws banning or restricting a woman's right to abortion, most drastically in Alabama, where the governor signed a ball that prohibits almost all abortions in the state. You've also probably heard that most of these laws have the same goal in mind: Triggering cases that will reach the Supreme Court, which has a conservative majority, in order to get the justices to reconsider Roe v. Wade.
But what exactly happens next? Will the Supreme Court overturn Roe sometime soon? (Most likely not.) Should I be nervous? (Most likely yes.) Here's all you need to know.
What will happen in states that have passed "fetal heartbeat" bills?
While, of course, it's impossible to predict what will happen, let's look at precedent. Fetal heartbeat bills ban abortions after a fetal heartbeat can be detected, which usually occurs around the fifth or sixth week of pregnancy, often before a woman even knows she's pregnant. Many states have tried to pass these laws over the years (CNN reports that the first state to do so was Ohio in 2011), and just this month, Georgia's governor signed the state's own heartbeat bill into law. However, a heartbeat bill has never actually gone into effect. For example, in 2018, a heartbeat bill that was signed into law in Iowa was then blocked by a lower court and declared unconstitutional.
Again, anti-abortion activists hope these restrictive laws trigger court cases that will eventually reach the Supreme Court, though it hasn't happened yet. In 2013, similar cases out of North Dakota and Arkansas made their way to the Supreme Court, but the justices decided not to take on the cases.
Is it still legal to get an abortion in the United States?
Yes, including in Alabama. Alabama's law won't take effect for six months, and it will probably be blocked by the lower courts before it does go into effect since, as the New York Times reports, Supreme Court precedent prohibits bans on abortion until a fetus is viable outside of the womb.
It is currently legal to get an abortion in all 50 states, though states do vary in terms of the number of providers, the imposed waiting periods, and cost, all factors that can make getting an abortion very difficult.
So, what will the future of abortion access look like?
While many of these laws directly conflict with Roe v. Wade, it doesn't mean the Court will choose to take on those cases and reconsider Roe. In fact, the Times reports it's more likely that the current Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice John Roberts Jr., will work to chip away at the constitutional right to abortion, rather than completely overturning it. Similarly, the Los Angeles Times reports that Roberts, who has spent 14 years on the Supreme Court, usually resists "moving quickly to decide major controversies or to announce abrupt, far-reaching changes in the law" and that he is "particularly unlikely" to overturn the right to abortion with a presidential election coming up.
In the below video from the Times, Supreme Court reporter Adam Liptak explains the most likely outcome is states will come to have different “legal patchworks,” meaning different state-specific laws that will make it much more difficult for women, especially poor women, to get abortions.
As Callie Beusman wrote for The Cut, "The strategy employed by anti-abortion groups has never been to take away our rights in one fell swoop. It’s been death by a thousand cuts, attacking Roe in tedious, bureaucratic increments... It’s much easier to rally behind a sentiment like ‘Alabama legislators have just made abortion illegal’ than one like ‘Alabama legislators have passed a very severe bill which will not be immediately enforced, but is rather part of an insidious, ongoing attack on reproductive rights, one that will eventually make its way to the highest court in the land, though we can’t be sure exactly when or how.'"
The fear is still real.
Even with all of this, it's still scary to consider how states could work to make getting an abortion even more difficult. Already, many states have few clinics available or employ lengthy wait times, which forces women to take time off work or pay extra money to sleep somewhere overnight just to get the procedure. In Alabama, abortion isn’t covered by Medicaid or state health insurance, making it even more difficult to procure. And it is true that the justices could decide to take on a case that would lead to reconsidering Roe. But as we wait to see what the courts will choose to do, you can help. Let the people in your life know that they can still get an abortion in their state, and that it's essential to fight against these ongoing cuts to abortion rights. Here, find five ways you can work to defend abortion rights right now.
('You Might Also Like',)
