Zuma’s Popularity Threatens ANC’s Majority Hopes, SRF Says

(Bloomberg) -- The popularity of former South African President Jacob Zuma poses a threat to the ruling African National Congress’s hopes of retaining its majority in this year’s election, the Social Research Foundation said.

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A survey conducted by the research group in October, ahead of Zuma’s December announcement that he would vote and campaign for an ANC breakaway party, showed he is 10 times more popular than President Cyril Ramaphosa in the key KwaZulu-Natal province.

While that won’t necessarily directly translate into support for the uMkhonto Wesizwe party, it could deprive the ANC of a percentage point or two of the vote in a year when several opinion polls have forecast it will lose its majority for the first time. A date for the election has yet to be set.

“Favorability rankings do not translate into voter support in the absence of a very strong ground game and related political infrastructure, which Mr Zuma does not have nationally and which he has to only a limited extent in the province of KwaZulu-Natal,” Frans Cronje, chairman of the SRF said in an interview. It’s likely “his party might be in the 1% to 2% range,” which could give him influence in a post-election coalition government, he said.

Zuma’s almost nine-year rule was marred by a series of scandals, policy missteps and inappropriate appointments. While he hasn’t left the ANC, he has said he cannot vote or campaign for it under Ramaphosa’s leadership. ANC leaders have expressed their disapproval, but they are yet to decide what action to take.

In an October survey, the SRF put the ANC’s support among registered voters nationally at 45%, down from 52% in March.

Opponents of the current leadership want to “ensure that the ANC is locked up in internal struggles that will weaken and destroy it,” Ramaphosa told a crowd of more than 40,000 on Jan. 13 at an event in the eastern town of Mbombela that was held to commemorate the party’s founding. “They actively encourage rebel break-away groupings to erode the support base of the ANC.”

When asked by the SRF which South African president has been best for KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s ethnic stronghold and the second-most populous province, 36.8% of respondents in that region chose Zuma. He was second only to Nelson Mandela at 47.2% and well ahead of Ramaphosa, who at 3.8% was rated the lowest of all democratic era leaders bar Kgalema Motlanthe, who was president for less than a year.

Zuma’s support was strongest among supporters of the Economic Freedom Fighters, a populist party that also broke away from the ANC, with two thirds of supporters polled choosing him as the best president. Of ANC respondents, 44% chose Zuma.

Nationally 22.9% of respondents had a “very favorable” rating of Zuma, compared to 53.1% in KwaZulu-Natal.

The margin of error in the SRF’s latest poll, which canvassed the views of 1,412 people, was 5%.

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