While Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NASDAQGS. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Zumiez’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What is Zumiez worth?
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 4.0% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Zumiez today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $47.91, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Zumiez’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will Zumiez generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Zumiez, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -11%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? ZUMZ seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on ZUMZ for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on ZUMZ should the price fluctuate below its true value.
Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. When we did our research, we found 2 warning signs for Zumiez (1 is potentially serious!) that we believe deserve your full attention.
If you are no longer interested in Zumiez, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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