Romney and Gingrich statistically tied in New Hampshire

The Ticket

New Hampshire's Republican presidential primary has long been Mitt Romney's race to lose, as the former Massachusetts governor had led by more than 20 points there for months.

But with the primary less than two months away, a new poll finds Romney's massive lead has vanished, leaving him statistically tied with Newt Gingrich in the state.

A Magellan Strategies/NH Journal poll of likely GOP voters finds Romney leading Gingrich by just 2 points—29 percent to 27 percent. It's a result that's well within the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus 3.6 percent.

That's a 17 point gain for Gingrich in just a month.

Why is Gingrich gaining? According to the poll, voters have been impressed by the former House speaker's debate performances:

When asked why people felt Gingrich was moving up in the polls, 44% of respondents cited his depth of knowledge on the issues. Ten percent referred to his strong debate performances while another 6% said they liked that he was challenging the media in those debates. Ten percent referenced his past experience as Speaker of the House.

A close look at the data shows Gingrich is actually leading Romney among certain important subgroups of the electorate. Among self-identified conservative voters, Gingrich beats Romney 34%-27%. Among self-identified tea party voters, he leads Romney 38%-21%.

However, Romney has a wide lead over Gingrich among Undeclared voters, who give the former Massachusetts Governor 29% over Paul's 19% and Gingrich's 18%. There is also a significant gender gap for both Romney and Gingrich. Romney beats Gingrich 33%-22% among women while Gingrich defeats Romney 32%-24% among men.

Not surprisingly, Romney's campaign is casting the poll as an outlier, given other recent surveys have shown the ex-governor with such a huge lead in the state. But the poll should put Romney on edge since New Hampshire is so crucial to his nomination strategy.

Romney's lead in the Granite State has been so massive in recent months that if even if he wins the primary by a tiny margin in January it could upset his momentum heading into other key primary states, including Florida.

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