3 major takeaways from our national poll of Republican voters

This article was first published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday mornings here.

Good morning and welcome to On the Trail 2024, the Deseret News’ campaign newsletter. I’m Samuel Benson, Deseret’s national political correspondent.

Here’s more of the Deseret News’ 2024 election coverage:

• No more GOP primary debates, RNC announces

• Utah loosens ballot access rules after RFK Jr. sues

• The GOP has a young person problem

• As Christie shuts down Ramaswamy, Haley and DeSantis attack each other instead of front-runner Trump

• Sen. Mitt Romney weighs in on 2024: Biden ‘too old,’ Trump ‘a little too nutty’

The Big Idea

Not Your Average Primary Polls

We’ve partnered with polling firm HarrisX to conduct surveys of voters across the U.S. Some of the recent findings include voter attitudes about free speech on college campuses. In June, we looked at working-class voters and the economy. In August, morality and public office. And in October, our survey about politics and religion made huge waves — thanks, in part, to the finding that Republicans are more likely to think Donald Trump is a person of faith than any other politician.

We’re beginning to roll out findings from our latest poll, conducted in late November. There is more context on why voters think Trump is a person of faith (more on that later). But we also learned about other facets of the GOP primary.

Three major takeaways:

1. Republicans want Haley as vice president.

Trump is the runaway favorite to win the Republican nomination for president. If he does, there have been whisperings lately that he’ll pick ex-Fox News host Tucker Carlson as his vice president. In our poll, only 6% of Republican voters said they’d like to see Carlson as the running-mate; somewhat surprisingly, the top pick for GOP voters was Nikki Haley.

Haley (20%) was followed by Ron DeSantis (18%), Vivek Ramaswamy (13%) and Mike Pence (9%).

Haley has denied any interest in being vice president, and both DeSantis and Ramaswamy have outright said they wouldn’t accept the position if offered. But the findings offer an interesting window into GOP voters’ collective outlook: either the current candidates for president are simply top-of-mind, or they’re actually Republicans’ top picks for the next GOP White House.

More on this poll here.

2. On Israel, voters like Trump.

Biden’s support for Israel — traveling to Tel Aviv, backing military aid, pushing for Hamas to release hostages — has pleased much of the U.S. pro-Israel community. It’s angered many of his own progressive supporters, though. That’s what makes this poll result surprising: more U.S. voters, regardless of party affiliation, trust Trump more on Israel than Biden.

While Trump was a staunch ally of Israel during his time in office — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump the “most pro-Israeli president ever” — Trump’s response after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack has been questionable. He chided Netanyahu and the Israeli government for being “not prepared” and praised Hezbollah, a terrorist organization that has attacked Israel in recent weeks, for being “very smart.”

More on this poll here.

3. Most voters think there’s at least some chance Trump loses the primary.

The vast majority of Republicans — 86% — think Trump will win the GOP nomination. No surprise here — he’s leading in national polls by over 40 percentage points. But a majority of Republicans (65%) acknowledge there’s at least some chance that Trump will lose.

When those voters are asked which candidates have a chance at beating Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the top pick, with 51% of respondents choosing him. Thirty-one percent said former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has a chance and 29% said entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

More here.

What I’m reading

Vivek Ramaswamy, the libertarian? That’s a possibility, according to a new report from The Des Moines Register. In conversations with Iowa Libertarian Party leaders, Ramaswamy has reportedly expressed interest in running as a libertarian if he loses the GOP nomination. Ramaswamy denied the reporting, saying he’s only trying to get libertarians to vote for him in the GOP caucuses. Still some interesting reporting: Vivek Ramaswamy, Libertarian candidate? In Iowa, his campaign flirts with a third-party run (Galen Bacharier and Philip Joens, The Des Moines Register)

Where did the never-Trumpers go? It seems all the back-stage maneuvering to keep Trump from winning the nomination has either stalled, or shown little promise. Candidates are dropping out, but not endorsing each other; Trump’s polling numbers are only rising. But big endorsements might not do much. “If virtually all the GOP governors and senators were to say they would not support Trump, even in the general, I don’t think his poll numbers would be harmed, at all,” Mitt Romney told Politico. “They might even get better. I think the MAGA base dislikes our elected elites as much or more than they dislike Democrats.” Where Are All the Anti-Trump Republicans? (Jonathan Martin, Politico)

The good folks of New Hampshire are still quite furious at Biden and the Democrats for stripping the state of its first-in-the-nation primary status. (Democrats gave that designation to South Carolina.) But a large group of Granite State Democrats are now organizing a write-in campaign for Biden, who won’t appear on the ballot — a sign of the begrudging reality that whether Democrats like it or not, Biden is the nominee. Still Annoyed at Biden, New Hampshire Democrats Gear Up to Help Him (Reid J. Epstein, The New York Times)

What to watch

CNN is hosting a pair of live town halls with Republican candidates this week — with Ramaswamy on Tuesday, and DeSantis on Wednesday. Both are at 7 p.m. MST.

These should be interesting. A live town hall with Trump cost ex-CNN president Chris Licht his job in June, and the network hasn’t scheduled any more since. (Town halls with Pence, Christie and Haley in June were already scheduled.) Expect the Ramaswamy one to be especially feisty, after Ramaswamy got testy with CNN’s Dana Bash after the debate Wednesday.

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Have a question for the Friday mailbag? Drop me a line at onthetrail@deseretnews.com, or reply to this email.

See you on the trail.

Editor’s Note: The Deseret News is committed to covering issues of substance in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters will bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision. Find our complete coverage of the election here.