Groundhog Day is Friday. What will we learn about this upside-down winter in Rochester?
Rochester’s frustrating winter weather hasn’t been very predictable. The snow we were promised? So what will Punxsutawney Phil’s Groundhog Day prediction on Friday tell us about the end of winter?
Beloved groundhog Phil will look for his shadow to see whether or not we should expect six more weeks of winter, and New Yorkers will wait for the outcome. Possibly, he will foretell more winter — and then it will snow again.
Just like real weather forecasters, though, Phil's predictions aren't always accurate.
Since his first prediction in 1887, Punxsutawney Phil has been right 39% of the time. In the past 10 years, he’s been right 40% of the time, according to the Stormfax Weather Almanac.
El Niño brings warmer conditions
This year, Rochester has been feeling the effects of a strong El Niño winter, resulting in warmer and drier conditions. And we have been lacking snow.
Accuweather’s website describes El Niño as “a regular, large-scale climate phenomenon that occurs when the water temperatures near the equator of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are above the historical average for months at a time."
El Niño events are not on a regular cycle and typically occur every two to seven years. The last time El Niño paid us a visit was back in 2015-16 when the region experienced 50-degree temperatures on Christmas.
This past December marked the second-warmest on record, based on average month temperature, for Rochester, Buffalo and Watertown. But El Niño may not be the only thing to blame for these warmer conditions. Accuweather meteorologist Paul Pastelok says the lack of ice on the Great Lakes and deep snowpack in Central Canada has also aided in these warmer temperatures.
"We've seen that in the past where we've had these kinds of winters where it's hard to get the cold air in and get it staying in unless you have snowpack that's pretty deep," Pastelok said. "And that's been so far this kind of winter."
When will spring come? Rochester may want more winter
April showers bring May flowers, as the saying goes, but when will spring begin to make her mark of rain and blossoming flowers here in Rochester?
Whether Punxsutawney sees his shadow Feb. 2 or not, the upcoming week may start to feel like spring is approaching in Rochester, Pastelok said.
Heading towards Valentine's Day, though, we should expect to see a cold front coming in. "It may not be like deep freeze kind of cold, but just getting back to what it should be this time of the year, and even the potential for some storms to come up the East Coast in the second half of February, and the beginning of March," he said.
At the end of February to early March, the forecaster thinks there could be a window of opportunity for the traditional winter weather that we are used to seeing. He says there may be a few warm-ups throughout that period, but it won't be sustainable enough to be considered spring weather.
Even if Punxsutawney gets a peek of his shadow tomorrow, the season won't officially change for Rochester until the equinox in mid-March.
Do people in Rochester want an early spring or more winter?
The Democrat & Chronicle on Feb. 1 put out polls on Instagram and X to see if people are hoping for an early spring or six more weeks of winter.
After a few hours of voting, D&C fans on Instagram were voting by about 75% for early spring! Will Phil’s prediction Friday make their early spring wishes come true?
— Victoria Freile, Steve Howe and USA TODAY contributed information for this article.
— Madison Scott is a college journalist who is an intern with the Democrat and Chronicle. She has an interest in how the system helps or doesn't help families with missing loved ones. She can be reached at MDScott@gannett.com. Tell her if you have a good history book recommendation, especially about the Rochester region.
This article originally appeared on Aberdeen News: Weather in Rochester: What does Groundhog Day prediction mean for us
