The Iowa Caucuses are an expectations game: Where GOP hopefuls have set the bar for results

Going into Monday’s Iowa Caucus contest, Republican presidential candidates are aggressively trying to manage expectations for their results, with Donald Trump tempering the idea that he should win with 50% or more of the vote, and Ron DeSantis’ team pushing supporters to believe he can still be victorious.

The candidates fanned out across the state over the weekend, trying to reach Iowans even as the weather forced event cancellations and schedule changes.

DeSantis campaigned with his top surrogate and endorser, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, who on Saturday pushed supporters at the Never Back Down office in West Des Moines to turn out despite the cold.

“We need to get to the caucus,” she said. “And if we get to the caucus, I can tell you without hesitation, with the energy, the motivation, just what we're seeing as we travel the state: This guy is going to be the winner of the Iowa Caucus on Monday night.”

It was a bold statement that came before the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News Iowa Poll showed DeSantis dropping to third place.

More: Iowa caucus night: Where to find results, follow live coverage

Trump leads with 48% among likely Republican caucusgoers, Nikki Haley climbs to 20%, and DeSantis sits at 16%. Vivek Ramaswamy also grew his share of the vote, landing in fourth place at 8%.

But at a time when campaigns have traditionally tried to temper expectations so as to outperform them on caucus night, those in DeSantis’ orbit are doubling down on their messaging, saying DeSantis will do well in the caucuses.

“DeSantis is in it to win it,” a strategist aligned with the candidate told the Register. “We are aiming for first but gunning for a close second, and we’re the only team that’s been consistent in that message.”

DeSantis’ message appears aimed at ensuring his supporters remain energized and eager to caucus.

The Iowa Poll shows his supporters are more likely to say they will definitely caucus for him.

Among his supporters, 62% say they will definitely rather than probably caucus. It is 56% of Trump supporters and 51% of Haley supporters.

“On Monday night, this guy who they say can't win is going to win because of you guys,” evangelical leader and DeSantis endorser Bob Vander Plaats told supporters in West Des Moines.

Entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy, too, was predicting a surprising upset, saying he would win the Iowa Caucuses.

“We will not stop until we get this job done,” Ramaswamy said Sunday afternoon during a stop at a downtown Ames restaurant. “Tomorrow night we win the Iowa Caucus, and then we win this primary and then we win the general. With your help, I will deliver you a landslide.”

Ramaswamy said he's still expecting to turn out people whom the polls aren't identifying.

"If they're showing up, we've shown up for them as well," Ramaswamy said. "I think that's going to be rewarded by our supporters on the night of the caucuses, and I think we're going to deliver a shock tomorrow night that changes the dynamic of this race."

Although the Iowa Poll shows Haley leapfrogging DeSantis into second place, it also shows warning signs for the former South Carolina governor. Her supporters indicate they are far less enthusiastic about caucusing for her than DeSantis’ or Trump’s supporters.

That could become an issue as Iowa faces frigid temperatures following a blizzard.

More: Iowa caucus night: Where to find results, follow live coverage

Haley has been careful not to set a clear bar for herself on caucus night, instead saying she intends to have a “strong” showing.

“Iowa sets the tone for where the country goes when it comes to these elections. There are no foregone conclusions,” she told Iowans during a virtual town hall Sunday morning.

“We are going to make you proud,” she continued. “That’s my No. 1 goal. We are going to make you proud. We’re already moving up in the polls. Everybody else is moving down. We see the surge. But it’s only as good as if you show up tomorrow.”

During early visits to Iowa, Trump was explicit about his plan for the caucuses — a landslide, and potentially historic, victory, far surpassing the previous Republican record margin of 12 percentage points in 1996.

But in recent events, he's warned supporters to not let polling dissuade them from showing up, saying that anything other than a large margin would make his front-runner status look fragile.

"You can't sit home," Trump said at a rally in Indianola Sunday. "If you're sick as a dog … even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it."

The former president met with volunteers at Hotel Fort Des Moines on Sunday morning, saying he didn't believe he would eclipse 50% of the vote on Caucus Day.

"There seems to be something about 50, I don't know if we break 50," Trump said.

As it became increasingly apparent that severe weather would be front and center on caucus night — and could cut turnout — the former president's top staff also sought to slightly temper expectations.

"A win is a win," senior adviser Chris LaCivita told reporters after Trump attended a Fox News town hall in Des Moines on Thursday. "But anything over 12 (points), I think, is a great night."

Asked whether there was a hope for Trump to eclipse 50% as a show of majority support, LaCivita mostly waved away the idea.

"No one's ever gotten 50 or higher," he said. "So we'll just wait and see."

A 12-point victory, if it came to pass Monday night, would be a significant underperformance compared with Iowa polling throughout the last year. The new Iowa Poll showed Trump with a 28-percentage point lead.

And yet, it would still be a historically large victory for a Republican presidential candidate in a competitive caucus cycle. Bob Dole’s 12-point win over Pat Buchanan in 1996 is the widest winning margin for a contested Republican caucus.

“There's two races to watch,” Republican operative David Kochel, an Iowa Caucus campaign veteran, previously told the Register. “Trump vs. his expectations — because that will be how he's viewed, since it's now kind of assumed that he'll win. And then the other race is Haley vs. DeSantis. Who can make the strongest argument coming out of Iowa and into New Hampshire and beyond?”

Des Moines Register reporters Galen Bacharier, Katie Akin and Philip Joens, and USA Today reporter Savannah Kuchar contributed to this story.

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: GOP presidential candidates manage expectations ahead of Iowa Caucuses