Are New Jersey's groundhogs better than Punxsutawney Phil at predicting the weather?

Kyle Morel, NorthJersey.com
Updated ·3 min read
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When it comes to weather predictions, it appears groundhog meteorologists, like their human counterparts, do not always agree.

Groundhog Day is Friday, and New Jersey's two foremost animal prognosticators have had different opinions on the weather outlook in two of the past four years. The rodents' recent forecasts also differ sharply from those of Punxsutawney Phil, the world's most famous groundhog, who has been making predictions for more than 130 years.

But historical records show that Phil's annual declarations have a less-than-stellar success rate, leaving New Jerseyans to wonder whose forecast they should trust the most.

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Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil on Feb. 2, 2023 during the 137th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa. PETA is hoping to replace the weather-predicting groundhog with a giant gold coin.
Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil on Feb. 2, 2023 during the 137th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa. PETA is hoping to replace the weather-predicting groundhog with a giant gold coin.

Space Farms Zoo and Museum's Stonewall VI and his predecessor, Stonewall V, have predicted an early spring after failing to see their shadows each of the past four years. Turtle Back Zoo's Lady Edwina, who took over weather duties the same year as the new Stonewall, in 2022, echoed her counterpart that year but called for six more weeks of winter when she saw her shadow in 2023.

Edwina's cousin, Essex Ed, formerly handled the weather forecasts at Turtle Back before retiring in 2021. That year, he also predicted an early spring after declaring a long winter in 2020.

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Phil, meanwhile, predicted that spring would arrive early in 2020 before forecasting six more weeks of winter each of the next three years. Thus, the most trusted groundhog has now disagreed with the Stonewalls three years in a row, the same streak he had with Ed and Edwina from 2020 to 2022 before agreeing last year.

Stonewall the Groundhog, Space Farms Zoo and Museum's resident weather expert, appears sans shadow with Parker Space, zoo owner and 24th District assemblyman, to signify an early spring for the region Wednesday, Feb. 2, 2022.
Stonewall the Groundhog, Space Farms Zoo and Museum's resident weather expert, appears sans shadow with Parker Space, zoo owner and 24th District assemblyman, to signify an early spring for the region Wednesday, Feb. 2, 2022.

But despite his prominence, Phil has been wrong about the weather more than he has been right. According to the Stormfax Weather Almanac, he has correctly predicted the forecast only about 39% of the time since the Groundhog Day tradition began in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, in 1887.

Phil has seen his shadow a whopping 108 times throughout the years, according to the almanac. He has recorded "no shadow" just 20 times — including six times since 2000. No data exists for nine years in the late 1800s.

Given Phil's struggles, perhaps it bodes well for New Jersey's groundhogs that they often do not share his predictions. Besides, if the weather forecast gig doesn't work out, the rodents at Turtle Back Zoo may have a future in NFL betting.

Essex County Executive Joseph N. DiVincenzo Jr. (third from left) announced that Essex Edwina, Turtle Back Zoo’s resident groundhog, saw her shadow and is predicting another six weeks of colder weather. Essex Edwina made her prediction during Turtle Back’s annual Groundhog Day Celebration. With the county executive are (from left) Zoo Animal Ambassador Keeper John Kleodudis, Zoo Director Jilian Fazio and Commissioner Len Luciano.

Ed and Edwina have combined to go two for three since they started making bonus predictions for the Super Bowl in 2021. Ed correctly picked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to triumph the first year, and Edwina guessed right again the next year with the Los Angeles Rams.

The groundhog is looking to get back in the win column this year after her 2023 pick, the Philadelphia Eagles, lost by 3 points to the Kansas City Chiefs.

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Do NJ groundhogs top Punxsutawney Phil at weather predictions