Can Kansas Democrats break Republican supermajorities? These are their first 4 targets

Democrats are on a mission to break the Republican supermajorities in the Kansas Statehouse in the 2024 elections, and a major part of the strategy is to flip two Topeka seats.

For now, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has identified four first targets in 2024. While two seats in the House and two seats in the Senate could ultimately be enough to break the GOP supermajorities, the organization will release a fuller list later this year of Republicans they will target in this year's elections.

"The DLCC is laser focused on breaking the supermajority in Kansas and giving Gov. (Laura) Kelly the veto power that would benefit Kansans from not passing regressive flat tax policies, to protecting fundamental freedoms, to electing candidates that want to expand Medicaid," said Abhi Rahman, a DLCC spokesperson.

Which Republicans are Democrats targeting?

The initial target list includes two Topeka legislators and two from the Kansas City metro area.

In the House, Republicans hold 85 of 125 seats while 84 is a supermajority. Democrats want to break it by ousting Rep. Jesse Borjon, R-Topeka, and Rep. Pat Proctor, R-Leavenworth.

"Those are the two House ones that we consider to be our first ways to break the supermajority there," Rahman said of House districts 52 and 41.

Republicans hold 28 of the 40 seats in the Senate, where 27 is a supermajority. Democrats can break it by picking up two seats — as long as independent conservative Sen. Dennis Pyle, I-Hiawatha, retains his seat and continues his feud with GOP leadership.

Democrats are targeting Sen. Rick Kloos, R-Berryton, and Sen. Mike Thompson, R-Shawnee. Senate districts 3 and 10 are "two districts that we consider to be very competitive and consider to be our absolute first targets in the state," Rahman said.

While the DLCC only has some of its targets announced at this time, the organization plans to release a full target map later this year, as well as endorse candidates.

More: Topeka businessman and Republican Rep. Jesse Borjon files for reelection to Kansas House

Why are Democrats targeting those districts?

Washburn University political science professor Bob Beatty said three of those four incumbents — Proctor, Kloos and Thompson — "make perfect rational sense" to challenge because their margins were close in the last election.

Thompson has an added "thorn in their side factor for Democrats," Beatty said, so "they'd like to defeat him to not only get rid of the supermajority, but also because he frankly really irritates them a lot."

Borjon's past races haven't been quite as close and flipping it would be "a bigger lift," Beatty said.

Rahman said the roadmap for Democrats is based largely on districts Kelly won in 2022 that also rejected the anti-abortion Value Them Both Amendment. That is the case for Borjon's district.

"Laura Kelly won 56% of that district in the 2022 governor's race, and the constitutional amendment lost in this district — to remove the right to an abortion — receiving 36% of the vote," he said. "So it's a district that we think is very competitive. It's a district that we consider to be, when it comes to breaking the supermajority, that's one that we definitely want to win."

Rahman described Thompson as "an extremist" and Kloos as "ethically questionable."

More: Sen. Rick Kloos sees God's Storehouse's fight with IRS as standing up for all churches

Kloos is running for reelection in the new map for District 3 after previously ousting longtime Topeka legislator Anthony Hensley in what had been District 19.

"This is a solid Biden district, the Democratic leader used to serve in that district, so that's something we think we can win the cycle," Rahman said.

That's even after redistricting made it more rural while tying together parts of Topeka and Lawrence with all of Ottawa and all of Osage County.

"Despite being gerrymandered, it still would have been won by Laura Kelly in the last election cycle," Rahman said.

Democrats lost Thompson's district by three points last cycle, but President Joe Biden narrowly won it while Kelly had a larger margin of victory.

"It's one of those districts that we think is going to be competitive," Rahman said, "because of some of the elections that have happened in the past — and it's Johnson County, which we consider to be one of the most competitive areas in the state that's definitely trending towards Democrats."

But Thompson is the only one of the first four targets in Johnson County.

With Johnson County districts trending Democratic, it is anticipated that at least some of the Republican-held seats will be on the DLCC's later target list. It is unclear if other areas of the state, such as Wichita or college towns, will make the list — particularly since not all races have announced candidates yet.

While organizations like the DLCC and Kelly's Middle of the Road PAC might have money to throw at races, they also need quality candidates to back, Beatty said.

Geographically, much of the 3rd Congressional District represented by Democratic U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids is "good fodder for the Democrats," Beatty said, as voters have shown they will vote for Biden, Kelly and Davids. But a frustrating challenge for Democrats, he said, is convincing those voters "to vote for one more."

How do Republicans campaign chairs respond?

Rep. Avery Anderson, R-Newton, is chair of the Republican House Campaign Committee, which fundraised about $666,000 last year to support GOP candidates.

"House Republicans have been working nonstop to ensure we continue our record-breaking fundraising drive," he said in a statement. "We intend to make it very clear to Joe Biden's East Coast allies that if they want to break a legislative chamber — there are easier places to do it than the Kansas House. We have known since March of last year that the Kansas House is on the DLCC target list. We survived being on their target list in 2020 and actually picked up seats. We will survive again.

"Recently, Democrats suffered a devastating loss by double digits in the Wichita Mayors race. When Kansas voters are presented with a new generation of leadership they are ready and willing to move on from the Democrat's failed policies. Campaigns like this give Republicans a clear path forward on how to win suburban contests next year."

Senate President Ty Masterson, R-Andover, is chair of the Kansas Republican Senatorial Committee, which raised about $255,000 last year. He was more succinct in his response to the DLCC targets.

"It is always nice to know where left wing Democratic operatives plan to waste their money," Masterson said in a statement. "We look forward to strengthening our supermajority."

What issues will Democrats run on?

Medicaid expansion could be a big campaign issue in Kloos' district, Rahman said, as "the district is already underserved in terms of rural hospitals, so it can't afford to lose facilities that are there now. This is one of those districts where you need somebody who wants to expand Medicaid, wants to fix our health care system, and we think Dena (Sattler) is a great candidate for it."

"I'm hearing folks in the district are very interested in continuing to protect women's reproductive rights," said Sattler, who is running against Kloos. "They're largely, as we've seen statewide, in favor of Medicaid expansion. And they do not like any sort of run on their public schools; they are adamant supporters of their public schools."

Fiscal responsibility and tax cuts — particularly opposition to the GOP flat income tax proposal — will be a major talking point for Democrats.

"People really do not want to go back to what we had under Sam Brownback," Sattler said, adding that "the flat tax is not the answer, but a thoughtful approach to tax relief I think is something that everybody can agree on."

Kloos' ongoing legal battle with the Internal Revenue Service over an audit of God's Storehouse could be an issue in that race, but not one Sattler plans to talk about much.

"I'm completely focused on what we can do," Sattler said. "I can say that the 3rd District does deserve a representative who will serve with integrity."

Aimee Bateman, who is running against Proctor, said property taxes are the biggest issue to people in Leavenworth.

"The fact that the state Legislature is continuing to withhold the LAVTR funds is really hurting the local community," she said.

Public school funding is also a major issue, she said, as is Medicaid expansion — particularly after the 2020 closure of Leavenworth's Cushing Hospital.

"Those are the things that I see at the forefront, and I don't think can be fixed as long as there's still a supermajority," Bateman said.

Why do Democrats want to break the Republican supermajorities?

The DLCC is the official Democratic Party committee dedicated to helping elect Democrats to state legislatures. This cycle reflects a new priority in their political strategy.

"This year what we're doing that's different than years in the past is that we're working to break supermajorities in states with Democratic governors and Republican supermajorities in the legislature," Rahman said. "Kansas is one of those. The reason for that is because we want to make sure that Laura Kelly is able to veto the worst of the worst legislation that Republicans are trying to pass."

Sattler, who spent time as Kelly's spokesperson, said the supermajorities mean GOP leadership has control.

"Without a supermajority, the Legislature has an opportunity to better reflect the will of the people of Kansas," Sattler said. "Unfortunately, with a supermajority, you have a handful of people basically controlling everything in the Legislature and it doesn't leave opportunity for legislators, I'm sorry to say, to really align with the will of the people."

Bateman, who is now an attorney in Leavenworth after a career in the Army, said she is aware of the effort to break the supermajority, but her motivation is to represent the district.

"I understand, though, that in order to get the policies through that I think this community needs, we're going to have to break that supermajority," she said.

She does not think there is a constructive relationship between the state and local governments.

"I just don't think they are being heard in terms of the fixes that they are asking from the state Legislature and what the state Legislature is coming back and telling them," Bateman said.

If Democrats are successful in 2024, it could set them up for more electoral wins in the future.

"Kansas is a state where, as we start to build infrastructure, you never know where it's going to go," Rahman said. "There's definitely a roadmap to winning statewide, and that's something that we're definitely interested in. Breaking the supermajorities is definitely the start of it; who knows what will happen in the future."

Jason Alatidd is a Statehouse reporter for the Topeka Capital-Journal. He can be reached by email at jalatidd@gannett.com. Follow him on X @Jason_Alatidd.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Democrats identify 4 key races to break Kansas GOP supermajorities