Kansas Republicans are one vote short ahead of anticipated flat tax veto override attempt

Ahead of an anticipated veto override attempt this week, Kansas Republicans believe they are one vote short, prompting calls for supporters to contact their legislators.

"On the House side, we should have that veto override done next week, and then it'll go to the Senate," House Speaker Dan Hawkins, R-Wichita, said last week. "A little bit more problematic in the Senate. The Senate president has to wrangle less people, but it seems like those people can be a little bit difficult sometimes, so he has to make sure that he gets the votes."

Republican leadership has to schedule the vote for a day when nearly all 85 members of the House GOP caucus are in attendance, as 84 votes are needed to override the veto. Based on past votes, 84 Republicans and one Democrat support the flat tax package, while 39 Democrats and one Republican oppose it.

In the Senate, a supermajority is 27. While some Republicans have flip-flopped on the issue, the votes stand at 26 Republicans in favor, with two Republicans joining all 11 Democrats and one conservative independent in voting against.

"The truth is I believe we have a bipartisan supermajority in favor of this plan," said Senate President Ty Masterson, R-Andover. "The difficulty is I think Dan actually has on the House side one extra, and I'm probably one short. So the net effect of that is 14 people and the governor can stop the entire tax plan. But what's being misrepresented in the public is somehow there's this bipartisan group — this majority, almost perceived to be — that wants a different plan. That is not true.

"We are literally one vote short of a supermajority for the plan we have. So we're working. When you're that close on one side, everybody's that potential vote. So we're continuing to work to see if we can have that happen."

Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is confident that Republicans will fail to override her veto.

"I never count my chickens before they hatch, but I am confident that we will be able to move on from the flat tax and have discussions about a much more sustainable, much more fair, tax structure going forward," she said.

Hawkins told supporters of the Republican tax plan in a tele-town hall that they need to contact their representatives and senators.

"Everybody should be contacting their representatives and their senators and letting them know how important this override is," Hawkins said. "And if enough of you do, it can make a difference."

Masterson said that is especially the case for constituents of the 14 senators opposing the flat tax.

One senator who could cast the decisive vote is Sen. David Haley, D-Kansas City. He opposed last year's version of the flat tax, but was absent when it came up this year and has indicated he is undecided. He had called an "emergency town-hall meeting" for Saturday to discuss the flat tax, acknowledging in the notice that a single vote could make the difference.

Likewise, Kelly is urging opponents of the plan to contact their legislators.

The day before Kelly vetoed the tax bill, her Middle of the Road PAC made Facebook posts targeting Reps. Jesse Borjon, R-Topeka; Robyn Essex, R-Olathe; and Laura Williams, R-Lenexa. The posts share office phone numbers and urge people to tell those representatives that "Kansans don't want another reckless flat tax experiment that jeopardizes our schools."

Kansas House Republicans responded with their own sponsored posts, paid for by the Republican House Campaign Committee. There have been at least four versions, touting the various pieces of the GOP tax plan, with a WinRed link to "say thank you" to Borjon.

"Jesse Borjon is fighting for us," one Facebook post said. "Income tax relief = more money in our pockets!"

What Republicans think of why governor vetoed their flat tax

Republicans continue to call their tax plan a compromise, despite including a flat tax that Democrats said they wouldn't support and kicking Democrats off the GOP-controlled conference committee that created the legislation.

"Although we knew the governor was probably going to veto it, we don't really understand why she would veto it," Hawkins said.

"There's the internal reason and the external reason why," Masterson said.

Masterson said the governor has explained in private meetings with GOP leadership that she thinks a flat tax would lead to an effort to eliminate income taxes. He said Kelly "just really believes in taxing income," in addition to sales and property, and because of that "she's afraid if we go to a simple rate like that it's too easy to reduce income tax."

That was the case with the Kansas Chamber's flat tax proposal last session, which contained a provision to gradually reduce personal and corporate income taxes until they reached zero.

Masterson noted that there is a trend toward implementing flat taxes because, "for those that don't think they can get clear to zero, that this is the best structure."

"The structure of our tax is more important than the rate," Hawkins said. "We have to get this structure in because once we get the structure in, then everything else works just fine.

"The governor wants to say this is a Brownback tax plan. It doesn't even look like the tax plan that Brownback signed so many years ago. And quite frankly, I'm not even sure why the governor keeps talking about Brownback. He's been gone six years, so let's move on."

Republicans and Democrats argue taxes versus spending

On Thursday, the Kansas Department of Revenue released its January tax collection statistics showing the month was $64 million, or 6.5%, below projections.

When tax collections were continually outpacing estimates, Kelly cited them as evidence to support cutting taxes. Now that collections are underperforming, Kelly is citing them as reason to oppose the Republican's substantially larger tax cut plan.

"Coming short of the estimates for the third month in a row emphasizes that tax cuts must be done in a fiscally responsible way," Kelly said. "The bipartisan tax package that I've proposed to the legislature provides substantive and direct tax relief to all Kansans — without putting at risk our overall economy."

Publicly, the governor has said the Republican tax plan is unsustainable, citing projections from her budget office that the state general fund would run out of money within five years.

"That's absolutely false," Masterson said.

He blames the projected future deficit on the governor's proposed one-time spending, which is primarily for paying off debt and paying cash to avoid taking on new debt.

"The full purpose of that is to wipe out the ending balance to give the perception it is not sustainable, but it is absolutely sustainable," Masterson said.

Hawkins expects the Legislature to craft a budget that "will not look anything like" what the governor proposed.

"As long as we don't spend like a drunken sailor like the governor wants us to, this is a sustainable tax plan," he said.

Republicans accuse flat tax opponents of misinformation

Masterson said there is "a misinformation campaign" against the bill.

"The governor's office is out trying to say this tax plan is somehow directed to the super wealthy — that's absolutely false," he said. "Hundreds of thousands of more people on the low end will receive a benefit."

That's because of an exemption to the first $6,150 for individuals and $12,300 for couples. Without incorporating that provision into a flat tax, low-income earners would see a tax increase due to the rate change from 3.1% to 5.25%.

"We've exempted so much on the bottom it's zero (income taxes) literally for most people clear up to $30,000 (in income)," Hawkins said. "Then at $30,000 it starts at 5.25%. One of the things about that that you won't hear the governor say — but we're singing it loud from every mountaintop we can climb up and yell from — 300,000 people in the state of Kansas will no longer pay any income tax on this plan."

Republican legislators last week started wearing buttons around the Statehouse touting that figure.

"We're very proud of the fact that we are taking care of those people on the lower income levels and making sure that they're not being taxed," Hawkins said.

The result of the single-rate plus the exemption is that the poorest and richest Kansans would see most of the benefit, while middle-income earners would see little benefit.

"If you're truly talking about the middle class, this plan actually has a tax cut all the way through, everybody gets a tax cut," Hawkins said. "In and around $40,000, right between $40,000 and $60,000, it gets just a little bit less."

The "little bit less" for that range is 75 cents of total tax relief per year for a married couple without children — or $1.25 for a family of four — according to Kansas Department of Revenue projections. For lower income levels, the tax savings tend to be around a few hundred dollars a year. For higher income levels, especially those above $175,000 a year, the savings are several hundred dollars.

However, Hawkins pointed out, middle class families could still benefit from sales and property tax relief.

More: Here's how much you would save — and who benefits the most — under Kansas GOP tax cut plan

What happens if the veto override fails?

It is unclear how Republicans will approach tax cuts if the fail to override the governor's veto.

The House and Senate tax committees were already working through other tax proposals in anticipation of advancing additional legislation. The governor's tax plan even got a two-day committee hearing in the Senate last week, though Republican legislators spent much of the time highlighting their issues with it.

Kelly has threatened to call a special session if Republicans fail to override the veto and don't advance a new tax plan that is acceptable to her.

"We have, I think for the last two years, gone home without giving substantial tax relief to Kansas people," she said. "We can't do that again, and I won't let it happen. If during the regular session the Legislature does not pass reasonable, sustainable, fair tax cuts for Kansans, I will call them back for a special session."

After answering reporter questions on tax cuts following a Kansas Day celebration, Kelly shared her favorite Taylor Swift song — the "one that my 17-month-old granddaughter can sing along to" — from a playlist her staff made her in December.

"'You Need to Calm Down,' that's it," Kelly said. "I might be playing that a little this week, right around here."

Jason Alatidd is a Statehouse reporter for the Topeka Capital-Journal. He can be reached by email at jalatidd@gannett.com. Follow him on X @Jason_Alatidd.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Kansas Republicans prepare for tax cut veto override but lack one vote