Poll: Trump, Haley gaining support among Utah Republicans

Former President Donald Trump is widening his lead among Utah Republicans, a new poll shows.

According to a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll, if the 2024 presidential primary election were held today, 33% of Utah Republicans would support Trump, an increase from the 27% who said they’d back him in the last poll in August.

Another 15% said they would vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and 11% for former South Carolina governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. No other candidate registered in double-digits: Vivek Ramaswamy (5%), Mike Pence (5%), Chris Christie (4%) and Tim Scott (1%).

While Trump now maintains a double-digit lead over his closest challenger, Utah continues to be the most competitive red state with available polling from the last six months, according to aggregate data from FiveThirtyEight. In national polls, Trump leads his competitors by over 40 percentage points.

DeSantis saw a small drop, from 19% to 15%, between the August and September polls, though the decrease fits within the poll’s margin of error (4.32%). Haley tied with Trump for the biggest jump, increasing from 5% in August to 11% in September.

The most influential cohort in the 2024 Utah primary could be the undecided voters. In August, 11% of Utah Republicans said they support a candidate other than those listed and 13% said they were undecided; in the latest poll, only 6% support an unlisted candidate, but 22% are now undecided.

Overall, 29% of registered Utah voters (of any party) are undecided.

“People don’t know yet who they’re going to support, because we don’t know exactly who the candidates are going to be,” said Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah.

Four Republican presidential candidates — Haley, Chris Christie, Mike Pence and Doug Burgum — attended the E2 Summit in Park City on Monday and Tuesday, an annual gathering of conservative donors and political leaders spearheaded by Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.

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Among Utah voters who describe themselves as “very conservative,” support for Trump jumps to 51%, with DeSantis trailing at 20%. Among self-described “moderate” voters, Haley is the favorite at 17%, with Trump (12%) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (11%) trailing.

Among self-described “very active” members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, Trump sits at 27%, with DeSantis, 17%, and Haley, 14%, close behind. Trump is the clear favorite for “somewhat or not active” Latter-day Saints, 36%, with only 9% favoring DeSantis and 8% favoring Haley.

Among highly educated voters — those with a graduate degree — Haley is the favorite, at 21%. Trump, 11%, DeSantis, 10%, and Christie, 9%, trail.

“I think we should look at these numbers right now as as a snapshot in time, realizing that there will be a couple of front-runners emerging over the next couple of months that will completely change Utahns’ views,” Perry said. “As the slate becomes more clear, the commitment to one of them will be stronger and more easy to see in the polling.”

Trump’s indictments are politically motivated, Republicans say

Nearly two-thirds of Utah Republicans — 73% — say they believe Trump’s indictments are politically motivated.

Trump faces 91 felony counts in four criminal cases, dealing with his attempts to interfere with the 2020 election, mishandling classified documents, falsifying business records. In addition, he was found liable in a civil case for sexual assault.

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The Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll was conducted prior to Trump appearing in court in Manhattan last week for a civil fraud case, dealing with his business practices.

Although a vast majority of Utah Republicans say they believe Trump’s legal challenges are political in nature, that does not necessarily equate to support for his candidacy. When asked if Trump’s four criminal indictments make voters more or less likely to vote for him, 33% of Utah Republicans say they are more likely — the same figure that say they’d vote for him in a GOP primary election.

Meanwhile, 27% of Utah Republicans said the indictments make them less likely to support Trump, and 25% said they make no difference.

The continued support for Trump, despite his indictments, suggests that the former president’s strategy is working. “When you have the former president giving speeches to Republicans, saying, ‘I’ve been indicted four times, and I did it for you,’ that has an impact on those core supporters,” Perry said. “That seems to be the approach that he’s taking as he tries to solidify his base through these indictments.”