Republicans are set to kill a bipartisan border deal. What does that mean for vulnerable GOP lawmakers?

WASHINGTON – Republicans have long ranked the crisis at America's southern border as one of their top priorities.

But now, many House Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., are set to kill a border agreement senators have spent months negotiating. Vulnerable House Republicans will have to explain their party's move when they face voters in their competitive districts in 2024 – but those who spoke to USA TODAY about the stakes said they're not concerned.

Rep. John Duarte, R-Calif., who represents a district Biden won in the 2020 election, called the reported aspects of the Senate deal “disastrous” and said he hopes the bill “is dead on arrival in the compromise.”

“Joe Biden is not going to be able to disown the crisis at the border simply because the House doesn’t pick up an insufficient  border bill that the Senate is trying to cook up there,” Duarte said.

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As Republicans draw closer to rejecting the Senate's long-awaited agreement, Matt Grossmann, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University, said that's a reasonable political calculus for a vulnerable GOP lawmaker.

"The safe vote is almost always no. It's much easier to explain why you're against something – it didn't go as far as you wanted, for example – than to explain away a yes vote for something that becomes unpopular," Grossmann said.

He added that most voters typically blame policy successes or failures on the party that controls the White House. While Republicans have called for immigration reform for years, it's not clear that rejecting this package will come back to haunt them on Election Day in November.

"That doesn't mean it doesn't look bad or drive a few news cycles," he said. "But the overall baseline is: You usually don't get in trouble when you're the party out of the presidency."

Johnson and a swath of House Republicans have balked at the Senate's negotiations and instead advocated for their hardline bill passed last year. That legislation would impose new restrictions for asylum seekers as Republicans seek to make immigration and the border top issues in a tight election.

In response, President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats have sought to pin the blame on Republicans over the border. The president and his allies accuse GOP lawmakers of stonewalling good-faith, bipartisan endeavors to stem the flow of migrants.

“For everyone who is demanding tougher border control, this is the way to do it,” Biden said in a statement last week in a nod to House Republicans. “If you’re serious about the border crisis, pass a bipartisan bill and I will sign it.”

But the lower chamber’s most vulnerable House Republicans hailing from battleground districts are still dismissing Democrats’ attempts to lay the blame at their feet.

Republicans contend that Biden already has the authority to secure the border, arguing the president doesn't need new legislation.

“Somebody should ask the president why he wouldn’t use the law that’s already on his side,” Rep. Marc Molinaro, R-N.Y., another Republican representing a Biden-won district, said. “We have a proposal to get to strict border security. Why the president won’t use the tools and the law on his side today is absurd and dangerous.”

One vulnerable GOP member, however, is urging caution to not outright dismiss the Senate negotiations. He expressed disappointment that so many of his colleagues have already thrown cold water on a deal that hasn't even been released publicly.

Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., defended Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., the lead Senate negotiator in the border discussions, saying Republicans should hear Lankford out first.

“Let’s see what he has to say before we jump to conclusions. I just think we should be professional and let him actually make his case,” he said.

The White House has pointed to Johnson’s past statements before he was speaker urging Congress to pass legislation to address the border. White House spokesperson Andrew Bates said in a statement the speaker “is twisting himself into a pretzel to delay border security.”

Regardless, Johnson has shown no interest in budging on the deal.

“From what we’ve seen, clearly, what’s been suggested in this bill is not enough to secure the border,” Johnson said Tuesday at a weekly press conference, saying the deal will likely “not cut it.”

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Vulnerable House Republicans aren't worried about tanking border deal