Trump won't win the Nevada primary. Here's why he will still be the state's 2024 nominee.

Donald Trump is going to lose Nevada's Republican primary election Tuesday, and the victory instead will likely go to Nikki Haley. Or maybe just "none of these."

Confused? You're not the only one.

Tens of thousands of Nevada GOP voters are discovering Trump's name is absent from the primary ballots they've received in the mail or will get in the voting booth.

Voters can participate in both contests but candidates had to pick one or the other.

Nevada Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar said even his own friends called him up to complain, though his office had alerted voters for months about the dueling contests, sending out postcards, posting signs and speaking to the media.

"It's one of those things where people aren't paying attention until now," he said. "I don't know what else we could do."

Instead of running in Tuesday's primary, Trump is participating in party-run caucuses on Thursday. Only the caucus results count toward selecting the state's 26 Republican National Convention electors, but state law still requires a primary.

Why does Nevada have both a caucus and a primary election?

Normally, states hold either government-run primary elections or party-run caucuses, but not both.

Under a 2021 state law, Nevada is required to hold presidential primary elections as long as there are at least two candidates for a party's nomination.

But Republican Party officials ‒ many of whom participated in a 2020 effort to subvert the presidential election results in Trump's favor ‒ decided last year to hold a binding caucus. They also tried unsuccessfully to stop the state from holding the primary.

Nevada Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar said even his own friends called him up to complain, though his office alerted voters for months about the dueling contests, sending out postcards, posting signs and speaking to the media.

"Why is there a caucus? Because the state Republican Party thinks that will help Trump," said Dan Lee, an associate professor of political science at the University of Nevada Las Vegas.

What did the Nevada Republican Party say about having caucuses?

In a statement, the Nevada GOP said it considered the primary election a waste of taxpayer dollars, and that party business should be funded and conducted by the party itself. Caucus supporters say they're the best way to test a candidate's appeal to the party faithful and require candidates to demonstrate they can organize and turn out voters.

"Simply put, candidates who participate in an illegitimate process cannot expect to earn legitimate delegates to the Republican National Convention," the party said.

To learn more: When is the next presidential election? Everything to know about Election Day 2024.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was participating in the caucuses until he dropped out last month, while former Vice President Mike Pence chose to run in the primary until he dropped out at the end of October. Like Tim Scott, the South Carolina senator who also ended his campaign, Pence will still appear on the primary ballot because the ballots were finalized before he quit the race.

How are the Nevada caucuses and primary different?

Because party officials get to set their own caucus rules, Nevada GOP officials are requiring in-person participation and ID verification at the caucuses, which they argue provides better election security and saves tax dollars.

In the taxpayer-funded primary election, run by Aguilar's office and county clerks, voters can cast their ballots by mail or in person. It's also open to military members serving overseas.

Aguilar said primary elections are typically considered more inclusive than caucuses because more voters can participate, instead of only those able to attend on Thursday. And it's typically easier for a candidate to qualify for the primary ballot.

For the primary, polls are open Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Pacific Standard Time. Polling locations can be found on the Secretary of State's website. Thursday's caucus runs from 5 to 7:30 p.m. Registered Nevada Republicans can find their precinct locations on the state GOP's website.

Why did Haley decide to run in the Nevada primary?

With Trump supporters in control of the Nevada GOP, Haley never stood a chance of winning the caucuses, which tend to draw the most die-hard party supporters, Lee said. Instead, Haley likely hopes she'll win enough votes in the primary to show she has broad support.

Also, candidates who wanted to participate in the caucus had to pay the state party $55,000 or host a fundraiser on its behalf, making it an expensive proposition for candidates lacking Trump's massive fundraising apparatus.

"In these early states, it's not about winning delegates per se. We're all small states, so it's about setting, or meeting and exceeding expectations to help build momentum," Lee said. "It's easier to cast a wider net by running in the primary ‒ she was doing it to try to build a narrative, to display her support among primary voters. Early on in the race, everyone is just trying to be the runner-up to Trump."

What are Republicans saying about the dueling Nevada caucus and primary?

Gov. Joe Lombardo and Lt. Gov. Stavros Anthony have both said they plan to caucus for Trump and vote for "none of these candidates" in the primary.

Trump visited Las Vegas in late January for a " commit to caucus" rally.

Given the situation, Lee, the UNLV professor, said it's possible Haley could lose the primary even though Trump isn't in it: "It could be the case that 'none of these candidates' gets the most votes."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: In Nevada primary, Trump will lose but he'll still win the delegates