Why Democrats are eyeing Congressman Don Bacon's seat in Nebraska

With overflowing war chests and national attention, Nebraska's second congressional district is home to one of the most anticipated rematches in the House of Representatives. The candidates: a rising Latino star in the Democratic party against a four-term Republican incumbent who has sparked the ire of former President Donald Trump >

Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, 39, is running against Republican incumbent Rep. Don Bacon, 60, for the second time after losing to him by fewer than 6,000 votes in 2022. With the Republicans holding onto the House with a historically slim majority, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) identified the seat as one that could be flipped.

"The election in 2022 really represented where we're at from the district because the independents broke down the middle and the intensity was the same on both sides," Bacon said in an interview with USA Today. "I just have to work hard; it's gonna be competitive no matter what."

Vargas believes his campaign is in a better position than in 2022 and will benefit from greater voter turnout during a presidential election year and the national interest from the DCCC. In his last year as a state senator due to term limits, Vargas says he is happy with the momentum his campaign is building. If elected, he would be the first Latino elected to the seat.

"This will no doubt be one of the closest races in the country again, but with the support we’re seeing, we know we can win,” Vargas said in an email.

And then there's the money as they are both equally flush. According to the latest Federal Election Commission filings, Bacon raised more than $780,000 at the end of 2023, giving him a nest egg of $1.5 million, while Vargas brought in more than $500,000 in the fourth quarter of last year resulting in $1.1 million.

As for types of campaign cash, Vargas raised most of his money from small donations inside the Cornhusker State, while Bacon scored larger donations from political action committees -- typical donor profiles for both the incumbent and the challenger.

More: Nebraska voting: 10 key dates for your 2024 elections calendar

Walking the middle line

In one of the country's most purple congressional districts, both candidates are touting their bipartisan efforts as they face the challenge of winning over moderate and independent voters in the district.

Bacon, who cites his ability to work across the aisle as one of his biggest strengths as a candidate, was named one of Congress's most influential lawmakers by the Center for Effective Lawmaking in 2023. Straying from party lines in the past, including voting to certify the 2020 election results, Bacon argues that Vargas doesn't disagree with Democratic party leaders enough.

"Voters know that even if they don't agree with me, they know I'm trying to do the right thing," Bacon said. "I'm not a party line guy, and he [Vargas] is."

His most recent bipartisan efforts include attempting to push a $65 billion funding bill for foreign aid through the House. Last month, Bacon was one of the five Republican incumbents in the state that did not receive backing from the populist-leaning Nebraska GOP, with the endorsement instead going to Republican opponent and businessman Dan Frei, who said he would join the House Freedom Caucus if elected.

Bacon is expected to beat the Omaha businessman in the May 14 primary and then go on to challenge Vargas.

Vargas, who has garnered endorsements from groups, including Planned Parenthood Action Fund and Latino Victory, has supported bipartisan legislation at the Nebraska Capitol, including the largest tax cut package in the state's history last year.

More: Nebraska and Maine's district voting method could be crucial in this election. Here's why.

"I've been working to lower costs and provide opportunities to Nebraska families, which is why we're seeing more momentum and grassroots support than ever before," Vargas said in an email. "I hear from Nebraskans every single day that they’ve had enough of self-interested, phony politicians like Don Bacon who get nothing done."

In the last few presidential elections, Nebraska's 2nd District has been viewed as a bellwether for Democratic success. As one of the two states that splits up electoral votes, District 2 tends to swing between blue and red, with former President Barack Obama winning in 2008, Trump winning in 2016, and President Joe Biden winning in 2020. In this election, Biden’s campaign is eyeing the one electoral point as a path to victory in the chance of a 269-269 result.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Rep. Don Bacon is vulnerable in Nebraska. Wil the GOP save their own?