Why Gov. Josh Shapiro's agenda could hinge on 3 election upsets in the Pennsylvania Senate

A few flips in the Pennsylvania Senate could change the trajectory of Harrisburg for the remainder of Gov. Josh Shapiro's term.

If Democrats were to gain three seats in the upper chamber during this year's election — plus hold their slim majority in the state House of Representatives — they'd take complete control of the Legislature for the first time in more than three decades. That would give the commonwealth's Democratic governor the chance to enact initiatives that have been otherwise stymied by the General Assembly's conservatives: gun control, a minimum wage increase and legalized recreational marijuana, for example.

Tim Wagner, executive director of the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, said strong fundraising and recently redrawn districts have put his team in position flip at least the 37th, 49th and 15th districts.

"Having these three, it helps us to tailor our approach," Wagner said. "We have national funders who really see a pathway to a trifecta."

Michael Straw, communications director for the Pennsylvania Senate Republican Campaign Committee, said talk of Democrats flipping the Senate didn't materialize in either 2020 or 2022, and is no more likely in 2024.

"At the end of the day they're only targeting three seats," Straw said. "So how well did redistricting really go for them?

He added that he expects the GOP's "common-sense" candidates in these districts to outperform the "radicial candidates with wedge positions" he says are being fielded by Democrats.

A net gain of three for Democrats is important because it would bring the upper chamber to a 25-25 deadlock. Democratic Lt. Gov. Austin Davis could then represent the tiebreaker in any party-line vote.

State Sen. Devlin Robinson

In southwestern Pennsylvania, Democrats are eyeing the seat of first-term state Sen. Devlin Robinson (R-Allegheny). U.S. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) won in his 37th Senatorial District, garnering 52% of the vote, and 59% went for Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro as well.

"It's really your true bellwether district," Wagner said.

He added that he believes Robinson's positions on abortion and minimum wage are out of step with voters here. He cited the senator's short tenure as another factor that increases his vulnerability.

"That is one we're very excited about," Wagner said.

Robinson will be uncontested the Republican primary. He'll likely be challenged in November by Democrat Nicole Ruscitto, a teacher and former Jefferson Hills council member.

Robinson did not return a call to his Harrisburg office.

State Sen. Dan Laughlin

Tucked into the northwest corner of the commonwealth is another potential pick-up for Democrats.

The 49th Senatorial District occupied by state Sen. Dan Laughlin (R-Erie) already leans slightly blue, with President Joe Biden having won here narrowly in 2020. Wagner said that while Laughlin uses the right words when he talks about raising the minimum wage or legalizing recreational marijuana, he's been ineffective at making these things a reality.

"He really doesn't press his leadership to do much at all," Wagner said.

Meet King: Erie Democrat King, a staff member for U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, enters state Senate race

Though Laughlin will not have a GOP primary opponent, he may face one of two potential contenders in November: former Erie County Democratic Party Chair Jim Wertz or Fetterman staffer Selena King. Wagner said he'll support whichever Democrat wins the primary.

"We'll have a strong candidate by the end of it," he said, "and have the necessary resources to compete here."

The top of the ticket will also boost Democrats, according to Wertz. He cited the general popularity of U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and the expectation for Biden to make multiple stops in Erie as reasons for his optimism.

Laughlin said that while he's not shocked his seat is being targeted by Democrats ("I think they're still surprised I took the seat from them"), he's confident in his prospects with voters in his district.

"I take everything seriously," he said. "I think that's probably why I do hold the seat."

Laughlin noted that he's won comfortably in both of his state Senate elections, beating a Democratic incumbent by 8 points in 2016 and a challenger by 20 points in 2020.

"In my opinion, Erie County is a pretty blue-collar county, and that runs across both party lines," Laughlin said. "I'm a blue-collar guy, and they trust me in the Senate."

In the running: Laughlin seeks reelection as challengers line up

State Sen. John DiSanto

Of the three targeted seats, Democrats' best odds might lie in the center of the commonwealth.

Late last year, state Sen. John DiSanto (R-Dauphin) announced he wouldn't seek reelection. This means that Democrats won't have to contend with an incumbent in his 15th Senatorial District.

Both parties appear poised for contested primaries to fill this vacancy.

On the Democratic side, state Rep. Patty Kim (D-Dauphin) is set to face the Rev. Alvin Taylor, a Harrisburg pastor. The candidates seeking the GOP nomination are Dauphin County Treasurer Dominic DiFrancesco and U.S. Army veteran Ken Stambaugh.

Regarding DiSanto, Wagner said he wasn't surprised the senator chose to walk away: "His policies were way too extreme for a district like this."

In recent years, high-profile Democrats have been done well in the 15th Senatorial District. Biden won here with 56% in 2020, while Shapiro and Fetterman received 63% and 57%, respectively, in 2022.

Bruce Siwy is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network's Pennsylvania state capital bureau. He can be reached at bsiwy@gannett.com or on X at @BruceSiwy.

This article originally appeared on York Daily Record: Democrats look to control PA Senate in 2024 election