Will bad weather keep New Hampshire voters home on Tuesday? Don't count on it

The good news for Republicans heading into Tuesday’s presidential primary in New Hampshire: GOP voters are projected to turn out in record numbers.

The good news for all New Hampshire voters planning to go to the polls: There's no snow in the Election Day forecast.

Not that it would matter.

“New Hampshire voters don't seem to care too much about what the weather's doing,” said Nathan Shrader, a political scientist at New England College and co-director of the school’s Center for Civic Engagement. “If they have their minds made up about voting and participating, they're going to do it. These are some of the most civically minded people I've ever met.”

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New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan, a Republican who oversees elections in the state, predicted Friday that 322,000 people could vote in the GOP primary. That’s roughly 53% of the total number of registered Republicans and voters who haven’t declared a preference for either party.

It also would set a new state record. The previous record was set by Democrats in 2020, when about 297,000 votes were cast in the contested Democratic primary.

Before that, it was Republicans who held the record. In 2016, the first time Donald Trump was a candidate for president, a record of more than 287,000 people – or 44% of eligible voters registered as Republican or undeclared – voted in the GOP primary. Four years later, when Trump sought re-election and faced nominal opposition, GOP turnout was 23%.

Trump is back on the ballot on Tuesday, with polls giving him a comfortable lead over former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Republican voters are eagerly engaged in the contest this year, Shrader said, because they see a chance to do one of two things: Give Trump a big win that would all but make the GOP nomination his and allow him to focus more quickly on the general election in November. Or give Haley an unexpected victory or a close second-place finish that would prolong the nominating process for a few more weeks.

“New Hampshire voters relish that opportunity,” Shrader said.

A record GOP showing in New Hampshire could help ease concerns raised by last week’s Iowa Republican caucuses, which had considerably low turnout. Roughly 110,00 registered Republican voters took part in the Iowa caucuses, down from a record 187,000 voters in 2016.

The low turnout was widely considered to be the result of Iowa’s extreme cold and snow. Lagging turnout in New Hampshire could raise questions about Republican enthusiasm.

Shrader doesn’t expect that to happen, though.

The weather forecast doesn’t call for any snow in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Even if it did snow, that probably wouldn’t be enough to keep most voters at home, Shrader said.

“Voters here take this so seriously, their roles so seriously, I don't think they allow challenging weather conditions to keep them away from the polls,” he said.

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Democrats, meanwhile, haven’t been all that enthusiastic their Granite State primary, Shrader said, since their leading candidate, President Joe Biden, won’t be on the ballot.

Biden, who is seeking a second term, isn’t competing in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary because of a disagreement between state and national Democrats over which state should lead the nominating process. The Democratic National Committee, at Biden’s request, wanted South Carolina to go first. New Hampshire went ahead and scheduled its primary earlier than allowed, which national Democrats said violated the rules.

As a result, Biden decided to skip New Hampshire, but a group of volunteers unaffiliated with his campaign has launched a write-in campaign.

Still, Democratic turnout is expected to be lower than in previous years. Scanlan projected that 88,000 people would vote in the Democratic primary. That’s just 14% of the total number of Democrats and undeclared voters. For comparison, turnout on the Democratic side was 43% in 2020 and 41% in 2016.

As of Friday, New Hampshire has 873,357 registered voters: 267,768 registered Republicans, 261,254 registered Democrats and 344,335 undeclared voters for either party. Scanlon projects that overall turnout on Tuesday should be around 47%.

Contributing: The Associated Press

Michael Collins and Joey Garrison cover the White House. Follow Collins on X, formerly Twitter, @mcollinsNEWS and Garrison @joeygarrison.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New Hampshire primary: Will bad weather suppress voter turnout?