It’s down to Trump vs. Haley in New Hampshire

Last summer, when former President Donald Trump first appeared to be the formidable, yet vulnerable, favorite for the GOP nomination, Sen. Mitt Romney sent out a plea to his fellow Republicans. Any GOP donor with any influence, he wrote in The Wall Street Journal, needed to “get candidates they support to agree to withdraw if and when their paths to the nomination are effectively closed.” The field would have to narrow to two — Trump and one challenger — by March, Romney predicted.

Romney got his wish, but one question remains: is it too late? The answer to that question will become clearer after Tuesday night, when New Hampshire voters decide between Trump and Nikki Haley.

New Hampshire is only the second primary of the 2024 cycle, following the Iowa caucuses, where around 110,000 votes were cast last Monday. Over 300,000 Republicans are expected to vote in New Hampshire on Tuesday. But barring a big upset, where independents and moderate Republicans turn out en masse and push Haley to victory or show she’s competitive, New Hampshire could be the beginning of the end of the primary season — after only a fraction of Americans have had a chance to make their voices heard.

It’s the reality of the 2024 Republican primary, where Trump has maintained a hold on the Republican Party. Despite facing 91 criminal charges and splitting time between court appearances and campaign rallies, Trump’s lead has only widened since summer, as his opponents have slowly tapered off.

Early on, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis looked to be his most formidable challenger. But internal campaign tensions and an inability to articulate why he, and not Trump, should be the next GOP standard-bearer doomed DeSantis’ campaign. (DeSantis dropped out on Sunday.) Other candidates — Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Chris Christie — boasted a wealth of political experience but never broke out. Vivek Ramaswamy, running as the young, fresh face of Trump’s policy vision, couldn’t peel away enough Trump loyalists.

That leaves Haley, the former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador under Trump. She first saw a jolt after war broke out in the Middle East, giving her a chance to showcase her foreign policy bona fides. In the subsequent months, she won over big-money donors and landed a key endorsement from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. In Iowa, she finished in third place, a disappointing finish considering her time spent campaigning there. But all along, it was clear New Hampshire would be the best test of her staying power.

New Hampshire Republicans are, in the aggregate, more moderate and less religious than the average Iowa voter, two factors that could play to Haley’s benefit. Unaffiliated voters are allowed to participate in the state’s primary, opening a window for Trump-averse independents to turn out in favor of Haley. And with Biden declaring no contest in the Democratic primary, there’s a chance that Democratic voters — if they met the deadline to switch party affiliations — could boost Haley, too.

All the while, Haley’s biggest hurdle is Trump’s popularity. Rumors of her as a potential pick to be Trump’s vice president continue, though Haley insists she is not interested. It would be an uncomfortable fit: Haley has slowly become more vocal in critiquing the former president’s age, mental acuity and record, and Trump has taken to critiquing Haley incessantly in recent days. Those in Trump’s inner circle brush off the chatter, too. If Haley is the VP pick, ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon told The Free Press, “it’ll destroy Trump’s second term.”

Trump isn’t much more generous in his assessment. With DeSantis out, Haley has become Trump’s chief target. He’s devoted time in speeches and in attack ads warning voters about Haley — claiming she will raise taxes, remove Social Security and open borders. He’s confused Haley for ex-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, complaining about Haley’s alleged role in the Jan. 6 insurrection.

Haley, who has maintained a careful posture toward Trump throughout the primary, has finally begun to push back. Instead of simply saying Trump causes “chaos,” as she does in every stump speech, she started addressing each of Trump’s claims about her during campaign rallies last week.

“Everything he has said has been a lie,” Haley told voters in Nashua on Saturday. “And if you’ve got to lie to win, you don’t deserve to win.”

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New Hampshire voters seem to be appreciative of her newfound aggressiveness toward Trump. Michael Morrissey, an attendee at her Nashua event, said he supported Christie before he dropped out. “I just want anyone to beat Trump,” Morrissey said. “I’m not crazy about all of (Haley’s) policies, honestly. But, you know, it’s just gonna be a disaster if Trump wins.”

Susan Horwin, another Nashua attendee, agreed. “I don’t want Trump,” she said. “I like her energy. I like her youth.  I think she’s got the experience that we need.”

The Haley crowds have only grown as the primary approaches. On Sunday, when Haley made an appearance with Judge Judy, the campaign pegged the attendance at over 1,000, packing into a high school auditorium in Exeter. On Monday, during an event at a Salem hotel, the campaign set up an overflow room to accommodate crowds.

Campaigning by Haley’s side is Sununu, the popular Republican governor, begging his state to turn out for Haley on Tuesday. “Now we’re just a stone’s throw away from doing what nobody thought was possible, and that’s delivering Donald Trump a loss in the first primary of the country,” Sununu told the Salem crowd Monday, to cheers.

But Trump boasts a strong following in New Hampshire, alongside a growing roster of prominent Republican endorsers nationally. In the last two weeks, he’s picked up endorsements from onetime Senate critics (Mike Lee, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio) and former opponents (DeSantis, Scott, Doug Burgum) alike.

Whether Haley can turn out enough voters who don’t like Trump — enough to counter Trump’s strong existing base in the Granite State — will decide who wins Tuesday. And whether Haley can pull off the victory may also decide whether Trump is the eventual Republican nominee.

“I voted for Trump, and I feel like his policies were right,” said Dennis Coffey, an attendee at Haley’s town hall in Rochester on Wednesday. “But he just goes off the rails.

“With Trump, I think he would do a great job,” Coffey continued. “I don’t want the drama.”