Trump and DeSantis beat expectations in 2024 Iowa Caucuses; 6 precincts show how they did it

Unlike several recent Iowa Caucus races, Monday’s Republican voting lacked suspense at the top, with former president Donald Trump cruising to a landslide victory that was declared (in some eyes, too early) before caucusing had even finished.

There was more intrigue in the race for second, where Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis slipped by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. The two finished in a distant second and third, respectively.

The most immediate consequence of the evening: Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out, followed by former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson the next day. Their exits leave four candidates in the Republican race for president, though Texas pastor Ryan Binkley failed to crack 1% on caucus night.

Results from Monday are unofficial and preliminary until approved by the Republican Party of Iowa. But in the meantime, here’s what a variety of precincts from around the state can tell us about how the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses played out the way they did.

2024 Iowa Caucuses: Find the results for every precinct

Trump shuts out his GOP opponents in 3 Mills County townships

Trump’s monster win was historic in volume. No nonincumbent Republican presidential candidate had ever received more than 50% of the vote in the Iowa Caucuses since they began leading off the party's presidential voting in 1976. Trump received 51%.

Only Al Gore and Tom Harkin, both Democrats, received a higher share of the caucus night vote, in 2000 and 1992, respectively. Gore had only one competitor, former U.S. Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey, while Harkin, a U.S. senator from Iowa, had home-field advantage.

On caucus night, Trump won 1,450 out of 1,657 precincts — approaching 90%. He earned a majority of the votes in more than 1,000 precincts, more than 75% of the vote in 188 and, in 12 precincts, he was the unanimous preference of all attendees. (Because there were more than two candidates, it was possible to win a precinct with less than 50% of the vote.)

The largest of those precincts encompassed Emerson, Hastings and Indian Creek Township in Mills County. On caucus night, 32 Republicans turned out, and all 32 voted for Trump.

The former president would go on to win the southwest Iowa county, which also includes Glenwood, by nearly 40 percentage points.

2024 Iowa Caucus Recap: Everything to know about how Trump won and how the day unfolded

Amid low turnout, Ron DeSantis overperforms in northwest Iowa precinct

One big question hanging over Monday’s caucuses was turnout. It was the coldest caucus night ever in Iowa, and the aftermath of back-to-back winter storms the previous week made travel more difficult than usual.

In Des Moines, a foot of snow remained on the ground on Caucus Day, according to the National Weather Service.

Turnout was indeed down this year compared with recent competitive Republican caucuses, whether that was because of the weather, lessened enthusiasm for the candidates or a lack of interest in a race that, as of the final Iowa Poll before caucus night, showed the front-runner with a lead of 28 points.

Unofficial counts based on preliminary results show a statewide turnout of 110,298. That’s below 2008’s estimate of 119,000, and significantly lower than the last competitive caucus, in 2016, when 186,932 Republicans cast their votes.

Take a look at Sioux County, where the greatest percentage of active registered voters are Republican. Precinct lines have been redrawn since 2016, so there’s no way to get a one-to-one comparison to the last competitive caucus cycle. But Precinct 4 in Sioux Center has similar boundaries as a precinct in 2016.

In that precinct in 2016, 519 votes were cast, mostly for Marco Rubio — Trump came in fourth. This year, that total dropped to 211. In Sioux County as a whole, turnout dropped by more than half compared with 2016, according to preliminary totals.

This year in Sioux Center's Precinct 4, DeSantis took 87 votes, or 41%, while Trump edged Haley, 55 votes to 54, and Ramaswamy got 15.

Trump improves his showing in the suburbs

Trump did not do well in Polk County, Iowa’s largest, in 2016. He came in third, behind Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.

And while he actually earned fewer votes from Polk County this year, his relative performance improved significantly. His margin of victory in the county this year was larger than his margin of defeat in the county in 2016.

Trump performed well in Des Moines’ fast-growing suburbs, winning majorities of the precincts in most of them and half of the precincts in Ankeny, the largest suburb.

He earned more votes from Ankeny Precinct 22, in the northwest part of the city, than in any other precinct in Polk County. Much of Trump’s improvement from 2016 involved picking up ground in suburban areas like this one.

A Nikki Haley bright spot on Caucus Day — Johnson County

Trump didn’t win everywhere on caucus night. As results rolled in, a splash of contrasting color in eastern Iowa may have caught the eyes of those viewing county results maps.

Haley defeated Trump in Johnson County, Iowa’s most liberal county and home to the University of Iowa, by a single vote.

More: Nikki Haley hands Donald Trump his only loss in Johnson County Caucus, winning by a single vote

The recent Iowa Poll showed Haley earning a greater percentage of her support from self-described independents and Democrats than her rivals, so a win in Johnson County isn’t particularly unexpected. But the margin raises an eyebrow.

On a night when turnout was down, a couple of more Trump supporters in Johnson County could have flipped the result and made a commanding victory appear like even more of a landslide with a 99-county sweep.

Precinct 24 in the eastern part of Iowa City is a good example. As in Johnson County as a whole, Trump was one vote behind Haley.

One more hypothetical to consider: Three voters in Johnson County cast their votes for Chris Christie, who had already dropped out of the race before caucus night. While conventional wisdom says it’s more likely those Christie voters would’ve swapped to Haley rather than Trump had Christie dropped out early enough to be removed from the caucus night options, you can never know for sure.

Could two of those caucusgoers have flipped the county back to Trump?

Nikki Haley wins more precincts than Ron DeSantis, but still finishes 3rd

So, Haley won one county, while DeSantis won none. Haley won 108 precincts, nearly double DeSantis’ 56. But DeSantis came in second overall, and Haley third.

That’s because of precincts like the one for Robins in Linn County. This was the third-most-attended precinct on caucus night, and like most, the caucusgoers placed Trump first.

But DeSantis was right behind. Even though Trump earned more than 100 votes, DeSantis received only 10 fewer. That pattern repeated itself across Iowa; DeSantis finished second in roughly three-quarters of the state's 99 counties.

While it was always going to be a tall task to catch Trump, DeSantis visited all 99 counties and deployed a robust field operation. He performed consistently throughout the state to earn results like this one and ultimately capture second place.

North central Iowa precinct a rare bright spot for Vivek Ramaswamy

Ramaswamy did not have the sort of night his supporters had hoped for, and he dropped out of the race before the clock struck midnight.

Despite the finish, there were still a handful of bright spots for the Ramaswamy campaign, which invested more time in holding events in Iowa than any other candidate this cycle. He conducted more than 320 announced public events across Iowa, according to The Des Moines Register's Candidate Tracker.

Ramaswamy earned nearly 8% of the vote and finished ahead of either DeSantis or Haley in several counties.

He also won six precincts, including Precinct 3 in Mitchell County, which covers the southwest portion of Osage. He captured 12 of the 29 votes in the precinct, or 41%.

None of the precincts Ramaswamy won contained more than 30 voters, but he can still look to specific pockets of Iowa and say that his message resonated with caucusgoers there.

Tim Webber is a data visualization specialist for the Register. Reach him at twebber@registermedia.com, and on Twitter at @HelloTimWebber.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: 2024 Iowa Caucus results explained with 6 key Republican precincts