Will Donald Trump lock it up? 5 factors to watch in the pivotal New Hampshire primary

Follow USA TODAY's live coverage of the New Hampshire primary.

WASHINGTON ― Former President Donald Trump will look to flex his dominance over the Republican Party and clear his path to the GOP nomination as he faces off against Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire primary Tuesday.

Haley, former ambassador to the United Nations, is in desperate need of a New Hampshire win in what could be the last chance to try to wrestle the nomination away from Trump.

With the Republican field now whittled down to just two major contenders, Haley has finally gotten the head-to-head matchup with Trump she long wanted.

But it might be too late to claw back in a primary race that Trump has controlled from the beginning. A win for Trump in New Hampshire could effectively end Haley's bid.

As Granite State voters head to the polls, here are five things to watch during Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.

More: Live updates from crucial New Hampshire primary: Tiny town votes for Nikki Haley

Will Trump lock up the race?

With a win Tuesday in New Hampshire, Trump can deliver an early knockout punch in the Republican presidential primary, perhaps forcing Haley out of the race while securing a virtually insurmountable hold on the nomination weeks before Super Tuesday.

New Hampshire, with its large population of independents and college-educated voters, was supposed to be an uphill race for Trump compared to Iowa, which he won by a commanding 30 percentage points.

Combined with its long history of bucking Iowa, New Hampshire was widely seen as the one state that could pump the brakes on Trump's ramp toward the GOP nomination.

Instead, despite his many legal troubles, Trump heads into New Hampshire primary night with clear momentum, expanding his lead over Haley, 57%-38%, in a Suffolk University/NBC10 Boston/Boston Globe daily tracking poll, and 50%-39% in a poll from CNN and the University of New Hampshire.

More: Blowout? 4 new polls give Trump huge leads in New Hampshire: Live updates

In recent days, Trump secured endorsements from former Republican candidates Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who dropped out of the primary on Sunday.

A victory for Trump in New Hampshire − even if it's closer than the polls project − would further solidify more top Republicans around the former president and make his nomination appear a foregone conclusion.

Nikki Haley can't finish second. She needs a win.

A strong second-place finish won't do it for Haley.

She needs a win in New Hampshire to remain a viable alterative to Trump, whose candidacy only strengthens as the primary map expands to more states.

The path for Haley has always hinged on New Hampshire, where she figured to benefit from the state's strong number of independent voters turned off by Trump. She could then carry momentum from a win in New Hampshire into her home state of South Carolina, which holds its Republican primary Feb. 24.

But she has a big problem. Haley, despite being a popular twice-elected governor governor in South Carolina, is now getting trounced by Trump in the South Carolina primary, according to polls. And two top South Carolina Republicans, Scott and Gov. Henry McMaster, have both endorsed her rival.

More: How Nikki Haley could win the New Hampshire primary despite Trump's lead

If she does not win New Hampshire, Trump − who has dominated national polls for months − will be in cruise control heading into Nevada and South Carolina before voting expands to states like Michigan and Missouri. Days later, a whopping 16 states vote on Super Tuesday, March 5.

At that point, it's likely all aboard the Trump train.

Will college-educated voters, independents fall in line with Trump?

Trump has always been most popular among white working-class voters who lack college degrees, historically drawing resistance from college-educated voters − both independents and even some Republicans.

But in his victory in Iowa, Trump improved his support among college-educated Republicans from his 2016 run in a sign that he's unifying Republicans of all stripes behind his candidacy.

While Trump's worst-performing Iowa counties were in urban areas with college campuses, he won 37% of Iowa's college-educated voters, according to exit polls, tops among Republican candidates. Trump finished third with this demographic in Iowa during his 2016 run.

In New Hampshire, about one-third of registered voters have college degrees − a higher share than Iowa and one of the dynamics that's made it an appealing state for Haley.

But college-educated Republicans are proving more receptive to Trump than some initially predicted. Political observers have speculated Trump's multiple criminal indictments have rallied Republicans who might have otherwise been skeptical of a second Trump presidency around the former president.

In the Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll, 50% of college graduates said they back Trump, compared to 45% for Haley.

If that pattern holds true on Tuesday, then Trump is likely to win New Hampshire comfortably.

Republican turnout

Last week's Republican Iowa Caucus had dismal turnout, with about 108,000 Republican voters showing up, far short of the 187,000 people who voted in the 2016 Republican caucus.

The low turnout was widely considered to be the result of Iowa’s extreme cold and snow. But lagging turnout in New Hampshire could raise questions about Republican enthusiasm heading into the rest of the primary and general election.

New Hampshire Republicans are projecting a record turnout, which would quiet the enthusiasm questions for the time being.

More: Will bad weather keep New Hampshire voters home on Tuesday? Don't count on it

New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan, a Republican who oversees elections in the state, predicted Friday that 322,000 people could vote in the GOP primary. That’s roughly 53% of the total number of registered Republicans and voters who haven’t declared a preference for either party.

The previous record was set by Democrats in 2020, when about 297,000 votes were cast in the contested Democratic primary.

Before that, it was Republicans who held the record. In 2016, the first time Trump was a candidate for president, a record of more than 287,000 people – or 44% of eligible voters registered as Republican or undeclared – voted in the GOP primary.

Biden skipped New Hampshire, but can he win anyway?

While all the attention is on the Republicans, New Hampshire is also holding its Democratic primary even though President Joe Biden won't be on the ballot and no delegates are up for grabs.

The Biden campaign has ignored the Granite State amid the state's yearlong dispute with the Democratic National Committee, which adopted a new calendar to have South Carolina kick off primary voting instead of New Hampshire.

Nevertheless, a group of New Hampshire Democrats have mounted a Biden write-in campaign that looks to save the president from a potentially embarrassing loss.

A grassroots group called Granite State Write-In has informally organized over 1,200 volunteers to vote for the president and convince their friends, family and acquaintances to do the same. A Super PAC called Granite for America has also rallied Democrats to support the Biden write-in campaign.

More: Joe Biden supporters push write-in campaign in New Hampshire: What to know

Biden's longshot Democratic challengers, Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn. and author Marianne Williamson, have ran their entire campaigns from New Hampshire in hopes of claiming a victory against the incumbent president, even if it's the result of a calendar dustup.

Polling shows Biden is overwhelmingly supported by New Hampshire Democrats. A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll found 64% of likely Democratic primary voters back Biden, compared to 6% who said they supported Phillips and 2% who supported Williamson.

But winning a write-in campaign is always tricky, and organizers of the Biden write-in effort are setting low expectations.

Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly known as Twitter, @joeygarrison.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Will Donald Trump lock it up? 5 things to watch in NH primary