Donald Trump risks a loss in Iowa – even if he wins the 2024 caucus. Here's how.

INDIANOLA, Iowa – After years of investigations, indictments and other unprecedented legal and political problems, former President Donald Trump on Monday will start to find out whether actual voters will validate his huge leads in polls.

As the Iowa caucuses roll around Monday night, Trump and his aides say they hope to win by a record margin − and maybe even exceed 50% support.

But at the same time, they know anything short of a blowout will be seen by opponents as a sign of potential weakness in the former president's bid to reclaim the White House. Trump on Sunday seemed to both set his own goal of 50% support in Iowa, while also downplaying the potential target.

In a brief meeting with Iowa "caucus captains," Trump told his supporters that "there seems to be something about 50%" while also accusing naysayers of setting a "high expectation" so they can pounce if he falls short.

"If we don't do that, let 'em criticize us, right?" Trump said. "Let's see if we can get to 50%."

Here's what you need to know about Trump's strategy to clear key hurdles in the Hawkeye State on Monday:

What do Iowa polls say before the Iowa Caucus – and New Hampshire primary?

Recent polls show Trump is in striking distance of his 50% goal.

The final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll released late Saturday gave Trump 48%, well ahead of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (20%) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (16%).

Trump's challengers, meanwhile, predicted better-than-expected results that will carry the fight to primaries in New Hampshire on Jan. 23 and South Carolina on Feb. 24.

Haley in particular has moved up in polls in New Hampshire, and she has made clear she plans to derail the former president there and in her home state of South Carolina.

"We want to come out of Iowa looking strong," Haley said on "Fox News Sunday." "We want to come out of New Hampshire strong. We want to come out in South Carolina strong."

DeSantis, speaking on ABC's "This Week," said Trump will be a poor general election candidate because of all the "distractions" that surround him, from indictments in four criminal cases to fallout from the attempted insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021.

"You're going to have criminal trials," DeSantis said. "You're going to have a lot of focus on things like January 6th by the media. And I think that ends up focusing the election on things that are going to be advantageous for Democrats."

How's the weather?

Trump does have to win crucial primaries and caucuses, like New Hampshire and Iowa's contests, to recapture the Republican presidential nomination.

But Monday's caucuses in Iowa bring at least two concerns: Bad weather and the fact that the Trump campaign is banking on first-time caucusgoers who may be less likely to brave below-zero temperatures and icy roads.

"Dress warmly tomorrow night," Trump told supporters at a "commit to caucus" rally Sunday in Indianola, Iowa

"You can't sit home," Trump also told Iowans on Sunday. "If you're sick as a dog … even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it."

Trump himself canceled scheduled events this weekend because of winter storms.

'He's going to fight to the end'

Despite the dangerous conditions, Trump backers who saw him in Indianola said they are confident their leader will prevail in Iowa and the rest of the nation.

Terri Rothwell, 69, a semi-retiree from Norwalk, predicted that no matter how well Trump does, opponents and the media will say it is below expectations – but that doesn't matter to his supporters.

"He's the chosen one," Rothwell said. "He's the one voters want to see in place."

The weather could affect turnout, she and others said, but that applies to all the candidates.

Kathy DeAngelo, 71, a retired computer programmer from Indianola, said she likes the way Trump fights his enemies, including prosecutors in the criminal cases he faces.

"He's not going to give up," she said. "He's going to fight to the end."

Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Iowa, who also spoke at the Indianola rally, said any kind of victory in Iowa would propel Trump through the primaries.

"It starts the ball rolling," Orden said.

Donald Trump lashes out at Vivek Ramaswamy ahead of Iowa Caucus

But Trump and his aides said they are still scratching for every vote in Iowa, which explains his new attacks on entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. The Ohio businessman is the candidate most aligned with him in the Republican field.

Over the weekend, Trump hit Ramaswamy for making an unfounded claim that "the system" will prevent Trump from being nominated, and instead anoint Haley as the Republican leader.

“Very sly, but a vote for Vivek is a vote for the ‘other side,’” Trump said on his Truth Social platform. “Don’t get duped by this.”

But Ramaswamy hit back in a post on X, formerly Twitter, saying “I don’t think friendly fire is helpful."

A record win in Iowa?

But why is Trump aiming for more than 50% support among Iowa caucusgoers on Monday? The former president and his aides have long said that they are aiming for a record margin in an Iowa Republican caucus.

The current mark is 12.8%. Kansas Sen. Bob Dole carried 37.4% in the 1988 caucuses against Christian broadcaster Pat Robertson (24.6%) and then-Vice President George H.W Bush (18.6%).

Notably, Dole did not win the Republican presidential nomination that year, eventually losing to Bush, who won the presidency

Trump also did not win the Iowa caucuses in 2016, losing to Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas. The then-New York businessman recovered to win the nomination and the White House.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Donald Trump risks a loss in Iowa – even if he wins the 2024 caucus