South Carolina election: Joe Biden looks for big win in Democrats' first official primary

It’s Election Day in South Carolina.

The Democratic race for president kicks off in the Palmetto State on Saturday when voters will pick their candidate in the party’s first officially sanctioned primary of the 2024 election.

Look for President Joe Biden to chalk up an easy win. He faces no serious opposition and has a history with South Carolina voters, who are credited with injecting momentum into his struggling campaign four years ago.

Though the outcome isn’t in question, the primary could give clues to where Biden stands with the party’s base. How well he energizes Black voters in South Carolina could forecast how he might fare elsewhere and what more he has to do to win over key supporters.

When is the primary in South Carolina? A guide to the Republican and Democratic elections.

Why is South Carolina going first?

South Carolina is the first of many primaries in what is expected to be a brutal presidential rematch this November against former President Donald Trump, a Republican.

South Carolina doesn’t usually go first. That honor of first-in-the-nation primary has traditionally been bestowed upon New Hampshire.

But national Democrats decided to move up South Carolina’s primary this year and make it the nation’s first official contest. Part of the reason is South Carolina has a diverse population. Black people make up nearly 30% of the state’s population while New Hampshire is nearly 93% white.

New Hampshire, however, objected to changing the primary calendar and scheduled its contest earlier than allowed. National Democrats said that violated the rules, so Biden didn’t appear on the ballot there. Not that it mattered. New Hampshire Democrats waged a write-in campaign on his behalf, and he ended up easily winning that primary on Jan. 23.

But even though New Hampshire Democrats went first, South Carolina is the first officially sanctioned primary of this year’s presidential contest.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

There are about 3.3 million registered voters in South Carolina. Voters do not register by party. Turnout in the 2020 Democratic primary was about 16% of registered voters. It was about 13% in the 2016 primary.

Saturday’s event will be the first presidential primary held in the state since a new early voting law was enacted in May 2022. The law allows voters to cast ballots in person up to about two weeks before Election Day without an excuse. In the 2016 Democratic primary, when voters had to provide an excuse to cast an absentee ballot, about 14% of votes were cast before Election Day. In the 2022 midterm primaries, after the new law went into effect, pre-Election Day voting was at about 21%.

As of Monday, nearly 24,000 voters had already cast their ballots.

--Michael Collins

More: What's the difference between a caucus and a primary election? Here's how each works.

How did Joe Biden fare in South Carolina in 2020?

Biden’s campaign was struggling when he marched into South Carolina four years ago. He had placed fourth in the Iowa caucuses and fifth in the New Hampshire primary. Before the polls in New Hampshire even closed, he decided to bail out on a planned campaign party and flew off to South Carolina, which his team believed could be the firewall that would turn their fortunes around.

It was a smart move.

Biden easily won South Carolina, carrying all 46 of the state’s counties and claiming 61% of the state’s Black vote, which was pivotal to his victory. Biden’s win in South Carolina gave him momentum heading into the Super Tuesday elections three days later. He would go on to capture the Democratic nomination and defeat incumbent Trump in the general election the following November.

Biden leads other candidates in South Carolina primary

President Joe Biden is looking to place first in South Carolina, and an Emerson College poll shows the winds are in his favor.

The poll conducted between Jan. 2 and Jan. 3 found that sixty-nine percent of Democratic primary voters plan to support Biden, while 5% support Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., and 3%  support Marianne Williamson. Twenty-two percent of Democratic primary voters are undecided.

“Biden holds a strong base of support among South Carolina Democrats, no alternative presents any challenge for the president,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “The 22% still on the sidelines present an opportunity for Biden to begin his 2024 primary elections with a strong showing to open for the Democratic nomination."

-- Sudiksha Kochi

When is the 2024 Democratic primary? A state-by-state guide to the election schedule

How is Biden doing among Black voters this time?

This year, polls, including one from USA TODAY, show some Black voters aren’t as excited about a Biden bid. Some young voters of color are upset Biden hasn’t called for a cease-fire in the Israeli/Hamas war, in which thousands of Palestinians have been killed or injured.

In a Pew Research Center survey released in mid-January, nearly half of Black voters approved of Biden’s job performance and about the same number disapproved.

One of Biden’s key supporters, Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., is tamping down expectations for high Black voter turnout this year. Four years ago the Democratic field was more crowded, there was a global pandemic and the country was engulfed in social unrest.

“The lay of the land is a little bit different (now)," said Clyburn, one of the highest-ranking African Americans in Congress.

The Democratic National Committee and the Biden reelection campaign are working overtime to turn out Black voters in the uncompetitive primary. Biden has visited the state twice this year; Vice President Kamala Harris has visited three times since the beginning of January. First lady Jill Biden and second gentleman Doug Emhoff have also campaigned there.

More: When is the Nevada primary election and the caucus? What to know about the dual contests.

Who else is running?

Besides Biden, the other Democrats on the ballot are Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and Marianne Williamson, an author and spiritual leader

Phillips received about 20% of the vote in New Hampshire, while Williamson got about 4%. Williamson was part of the crowded 2020 field that included Biden, but she dropped out before the first contests.

Neither poses a serious threat to Biden this year.

South Carolina has an open primary election

South Carolina has an open primary, which is a primary election where voters do not have to have a political party affiliation to vote for partisan candidates.

The South Carolina Election Commission states on its website that “You can pick either primary but you can only vote in one.”

Voters must have registered by Jan. 4 to participate in the Democratic primary. Those who vote during this time will not be allowed to vote during the Republican contest on Feb. 24.

-- Nina Tran, Greenville News; Sudiksha Kochi

What about Donald Trump and Nikki Haley

Voters eagerly watching the GOP contest between Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley will have to wait a little longer.

South Carolina’s Republican primary will be held on Feb. 24.

Who can vote in South Carolina?

South Carolina has an open primary system, which means any registered voter may participate in any party’s primary. Voters may only participate in one party’s presidential primary, so those who vote on Saturday may not vote in the Republican contest in three weeks.

How much longer until the finish line?

As of Saturday, there will be 198 days until the start of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 276 days until the November general election.

--Michael Collins

Contributing: The Associated Press and the Greenville News

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: South Carolina primary: Joe Biden looks for big victory